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My Top 25 for 2007

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Re: My Top 25 for 2007

Postby The Artful Dodger » Thu Sep 14, 2006 1:12 pm

hooligan1 wrote:1. Albert Pujols
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Johan Santana
4. Alex Rodrieguez
5. Travis Hafner
6. Vlad Guerrero
7. Ryan Howard
8. David Ortiz
9. Carlos Beltran
10. Chase Utley
11. David Wright
12. Derek Jeter
13. Chris Carpenter
14. Jose Reyes
15. Manny Ramirez
16. Roy Halladay
17. Alfonso Soriano
18. Vernon Wells
19. Lance Berkman
20. Miguel Tejada
21. Carlos Zambrano
22. Grady Sizemore
23. Carlos Lee
24. Matt Holliday
25. Justin Morneau


I'm going to assume this is a redraft league.

With that said, Miguel Cabrera is a rather high pick for #2. I can see the argument as to why you should take M-Cab second overall in keepers. I'm perfectly fine with that. I'm a homer for M-Cab; he's a young version of Manny or a post-Expos Vlad type. Likewise, I share your sentiment about Soriano, but I think with the season posted by Soriano, he deserves to be a top 5 pick, #2 even.

I'd consider Beltran and Ortiz in the top 5 too. Frankly, I would start thinking about A-Rod as a #2-3 draft pick again, at the least he's top 5 and you're spot on in recognizing that.

I agree with your opinion about Johan Santana as a #3 overall pick. Given the volatility of pitchers this season (Liriano, Kazmir, and now Zambrano), you have to figure that Carpenter, Halladay, and Oswalt are the more reliable aces available and if you can't snag either, no matter how deep the pitching pool is, you can't buy the reliability that Santana posts.

I see Hafner being a #5 pick too and I'd take him over Ryan Howard. Forget the fact that he's not position eligible because you can make room for Hafner in your lineup. He's a legitimate .310, 110 R, 40-45 HR, 120-130 RBI threat. Howard doesn't have the lineup protection behind him that Hafner features from top to bottom and if Howard regresses to Ortiz or Hafner-esque power numbers, then Hafner is a more valuable pick.

I think David Wright is still a late top 10 redraft pick, right around where Miguel Cabrera should go. Manny should be ranked ahead of Utley, Reyes, Jeter, and Carpenter.

I would rank Reyes ahead of Jeter. Much of Reyes' value is predicated on runs and SB's but I'd draft him over Jeter to see if he can prospectively post 20 HR's and 60 RBI's to boot, like some folks around here are going ga-ga for.

I would rank Carl Crawford and Jay Bay ahead of Carpenter and Halladay for pitchers, and ahead of Wells and Lee.
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Postby activechamp2006 » Thu Sep 14, 2006 2:09 pm

Ender wrote:I dunno, Bay had one good month this entire season and the rest of the months are really mediocre. He easily could be a 25 HR, 10 SB guy next year in which case he doesn't reach my top 25. Its too early to think about that stuff anyway so no comment in general.


the thing with bay is hes going to get his home runs/rbis and runs no matter what.. he may get most of them in one month or they will be spread out into multiple months, but we know hes going to get them.. this season a majority of them came in one month, while last season his stats were spread out a bit more, i just dont see bay not being in any1's top 25 thats crazy.. hes a top 15-20 player.. and should surpass that next season, his average is a ways down from what i expect it to be at.. bay could just as easily have 2 or 3 months where he hits 10+ home runs, hes shown he has the power to get it done.. i think this season bay will end around 36 home runs, 114rbi 102runs 11sb with a 285-290BA.. which is still a pretty solid year, considering you can atleast expect that from him year in and year out.. i think he could be a 40+home run hitter starting next season, while tacking on 15sbs, 100+rbis 100+runs and a 300BA.. matt holliday is a good young player, but when he proves he can put together a few good years in a row ill rank him near bay, but as of now hes a top 30 player and bay is a top 15-20 player.. cant base everything on recent statistics, a players past plays a big role. wait till bay gets good players around him, wow then he'll be a monster...
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Postby Yoda » Thu Sep 14, 2006 2:18 pm

activechamp2006 wrote:
Ender wrote:I dunno, Bay had one good month this entire season and the rest of the months are really mediocre. He easily could be a 25 HR, 10 SB guy next year in which case he doesn't reach my top 25. Its too early to think about that stuff anyway so no comment in general.


the thing with bay is hes going to get his home runs/rbis and runs no matter what.. he may get most of them in one month or they will be spread out into multiple months, but we know hes going to get them.. this season a majority of them came in one month, while last season his stats were spread out a bit more, i just dont see bay not being in any1's top 25 thats crazy.. hes a top 15-20 player.. and should surpass that next season, his average is a ways down from what i expect it to be at.. bay could just as easily have 2 or 3 months where he hits 10+ home runs, hes shown he has the power to get it done.. i think this season bay will end around 36 home runs, 114rbi 102runs 11sb with a 285-290BA.. which is still a pretty solid year, considering you can atleast expect that from him year in and year out.. i think he could be a 40+home run hitter starting next season, while tacking on 15sbs, 100+rbis 100+runs and a 300BA.. matt holliday is a good young player, but when he proves he can put together a few good years in a row ill rank him near bay, but as of now hes a top 30 player and bay is a top 15-20 player.. cant base everything on recent statistics, a players past plays a big role. wait till bay gets good players around him, wow then he'll be a monster...


Not sure how you can say that since Holliday is younger than Bay and he came out of his shell in second half 05. In fact, his second half 05 is very comparable as Bay's.

Plus this year so far, Holliday has been arguably better overall. I personally think they are very close in value but would prefer Holliday due to the Coors factor.
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Postby rjforlife » Thu Sep 14, 2006 6:22 pm

i dont think there is a coors factor anymore. no idea what they are doing there these days, but the splits just arent that alarming anymore. regardless of that, id still stick with holliday over bay, as bay seems to have leveled off, whereas holliday is still improving.
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Postby Ender » Thu Sep 14, 2006 7:10 pm

I agree that the Coors effect is minor now, though they still do seem to gain some batting average from it.

I think the two of them are very even in value. Both are late 2nd or early 3rd type guys so could be in top 25 or could slide out of it.
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Postby Hobbes » Thu Sep 14, 2006 7:16 pm

Ender wrote:I agree that the Coors effect is minor now, though they still do seem to gain some batting average from it.

Coors was built with large dimensions to counteract the thinner air. Even though the ball has been adjusted via the humidor, they can't counteract those spacious outfield dimensions. I would think that batting average goes up with the extra space in the field for balls to fall in.
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Postby Yoda » Fri Sep 15, 2006 12:51 am

I actually like Miggy as the #2 pick. He is a very safe bet to produce at least what he is doing now and a great chance he will be even better. He is far from his peak and he will only improve barring injury.
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Postby bronxxbomber » Fri Sep 15, 2006 10:27 pm

Yoda wrote:I actually like Miggy as the #2 pick. He is a very safe bet to produce at least what he is doing now and a great chance he will be even better. He is far from his peak and he will only improve barring injury.
Just admit it. You have a man crush on Miggy. Anyway, the list isn't crazy or anything. At this point it's so hard to make a set list until free agency comes and goes in the off season. Barring any drastic moves. I think I'm going into next season with a top 5 of Pujols, Arod, Santana, Vlad and Hafner (I have a man crush on Hafner).
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Postby San D » Fri Sep 15, 2006 10:56 pm

tianyi86 wrote:Personally, I dont feel comfortable having zambrano in the 2nd round. The cubs is weak offensively and zambrano's whip has risen to 1.31 this season. His era should be around 4 rather than the 3.5.


I worry about taking Zambrano at this point also with the rising WHIP and walks. Now his lower back is giving him fits too. I like guys like Peavy and Haren better.
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Postby Yoda » Sat Sep 16, 2006 5:13 pm

bronxxbomber wrote:
Yoda wrote:I actually like Miggy as the #2 pick. He is a very safe bet to produce at least what he is doing now and a great chance he will be even better. He is far from his peak and he will only improve barring injury.
Just admit it. You have a man crush on Miggy.


I just think he is a great player who keeps proving his worth yet there are always more people who knock him down.
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