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Postby JTWood » Tue Sep 05, 2006 7:48 pm

So... Flash in the pan? His minor league numbers hardly support this type of production. How do you think he looks for 2007? Platoon player still? Maybe some more time versus lefties? He certainly has some learning to do out in the field, but nothing about him has shown that he's absolutely inept at fielding.

I just can't help but feel that the league simply hasn't scouted him, and next year will be much, much tougher for him.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Sep 06, 2006 10:31 am

I have the same feeling. Most likely he isn't this good but I think he has earned the spot. He should be the starting LF the rest of this year and at least the beginning of next year. If he reverts it becomes a platoon again. I'm just sick and tired of seeing Taguchi out there. I know Taguchi is a fan favorite but he doesn't bring anything to the table anymore. He's defense isn't as good as it was in the past and he's bat is mediocre at best.
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Wed Sep 06, 2006 11:19 am

i think he will be best used as a platoon player next year. i think he will struggle against the lefties and i hope there is a 4th outfielder next year like preston wilson (not taguchi) who could capably handle some at bats vs. lefties if duncan or edmonds prove to be inept at that task. i think if his exposure to lefties is limited he can hit .270 with a .350 obp and good power. thats certainly acceptable production for what he's getting paid.

his minor league numbers for the most part arent exceptional. i wonder if he has changed something between then and now. he seems to have a solid approach at the plate. he sees a lot of pitches per plate appearance (4.03, which is just behind edmonds' 4.04 and ahead of rolen, pujols and eckstein). he takes a pretty big cut at pitches, but he waits for something he likes. he doesnt have a juan encarnacion swing at everything approach. usually you can beat a big guy like duncan with something high, inside, or high and inside. so far he seems to be laying off those pitches. he will strike out a lot but should still be able to hit for enough power and draw enough walks to not be a liability offensively. the announcers always say he should see a lot of fastballs hitting in front of pujols but i dont necessarily notice that. they seem to be throwing the usual assortment at him.

he will revert to the mean. the pitchers may be figuring him out now (batting just .176 over his last 10 games, his avg dropped from .347 to .314 over the last 12 games, and his k/bb is starting to deteriorate).

i like his hustle in the outfield. he definitely needs to work on the finer points but i think with more experience he will be average defensively.

so basically i see him as a platoon player, but a cheap and (if used correctly) fairly productive platoon player.
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Postby JTWood » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:06 pm

Damn. You guys were supposed to tell me I was wrong and that he was the long-term answer this team was looking for in the post-Edmonds era.

:-/
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Thu Sep 07, 2006 8:41 am

I'm not sure we're at the Post-Edmonds era yet. They are already giving him $3 mil next year no matter what. I don't see that as part of the salary. That money is already gone. Now the question is "Can you get a better OF than Edmonds for $7 mil". I guess it depends how if the club thinks he can stay healthy or not. But it took $5 mil and 3 years to get Juan Encarnacion so I wonder if they just don't roll the dice with Edmonds for another year.
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Thu Sep 07, 2006 11:31 am

Pogotheostrich wrote:I'm not sure we're at the Post-Edmonds era yet. They are already giving him $3 mil next year no matter what. I don't see that as part of the salary. That money is already gone. Now the question is "Can you get a better OF than Edmonds for $7 mil". I guess it depends how if the club thinks he can stay healthy or not. But it took $5 mil and 3 years to get Juan Encarnacion so I wonder if they just don't roll the dice with Edmonds for another year.


whether he is back or not i'd still say its the post edmonds era. he isnt the same player he once was, offensively or defensively. he is no longer a core player.

i think they need someone like preston wilson to be outfielder #3.5. i think edmonds will need regular rest and duncan should sit vs. some lefties. whoever they get to be a back-up outfielder should be someone they feel comfortable giving a lot of at bats to.

if you play the matchups right you should get good production out of an outfield consisting of duncan/edmonds/encar/jrod/p.wilson (or alternative). schumaker is a possibility as a defensive sub (left handed taguchi) but that would probably make too many lefties.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Thu Sep 07, 2006 11:41 am

No doubt Edmonds isn't the same and who knows if he ever gets healthy. The lineup could always use help against LHP and I could live with that OF next year. My #1 priority is still a starter to fill that #2 spot behind Carp.
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Thu Sep 07, 2006 12:33 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:My #1 priority is still a starter to fill that #2 spot behind Carp.


i agree. i wonder if they will be able to come up with the cash for it. after zito signs for eleventy billion dollars that burnett 5/55 may not look that bad.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Thu Sep 07, 2006 12:46 pm

j_d_mcnugent wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:My #1 priority is still a starter to fill that #2 spot behind Carp.


i agree. i wonder if they will be able to come up with the cash for it. after zito signs for eleventy billion dollars that burnett 5/55 may not look that bad.


I don't think Zito is an option. He seems pretty set on going to a big market team. Schmidt on the other hand seems more realistic but it is still going to take a minimum $10 mil a year for 3 years to get.

If they don't pony up for Schmidt there are some of SP that while maybe not #2's could be interesting:

Vicente Padilla
Randy Wolf
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Thu Sep 07, 2006 4:15 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:
I don't think Zito is an option. He seems pretty set on going to a big market team. Schmidt on the other hand seems more realistic but it is still going to take a minimum $10 mil a year for 3 years to get.

If they don't pony up for Schmidt there are some of SP that while maybe not #2's could be interesting:

Vicente Padilla
Randy Wolf


zito is definitely out. the bidding probably starts at 5/75. i dont know what schmidt will command. he is on the decline but should still have a couple more good years left. i could still see him getting something like 14 mil a year for 3-4 years.

padilla, wolf, lidle, lilly, eaton, etc. are somewhat interesting but i'd rather overpay for schmidt than give a lot of money to someone like gil meche.

maybe the rangers would pay a little cash to get rid of millwood's contract?

is jorge sosa still under the cardinals control?

carp
reyes
wainwright

bring back soup
free agent (schmidt in the dream scenario)
sosa as a backup plan should reyes or wainwright not be able to hack it.

belliard, mark loretta, or adam kennedy at 2b.
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