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Will 2007 drafts be the most unpredictable in recent years?

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Will 2007 drafts be the most unpredictable in recent years?

Postby Geek » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:30 pm

Most years, the top 4-6 guys are pretty predictable. This year, it usually went:

1. A-Rod
2. Pujols
3. Vlad
4. Teixeira
5. Manny
6. Ortiz
7. Johann Santana
8. Derrek Lee

Sometimes that order would get juggled a bit, and sometimes someone like Carl Crawford or even David Wright would sneak in there.

Even if we can agree that Pujols will be the dominant #1 overall next year (though some may take Soriano there), is there any consensus as to what follows?

Soriano will likely go #2 overall in a lot of drafts (especially if he plays 2b next year). But a lot of people simply don't have enough faith in him to warrant spending a #2 overall on him.

A-Rod will go anywhere from #2 overall to early 2nd round.

Do people believe that Carlos Beltran will avoid another year like 2005?

What about Ryan Howard? Do David Ortiz and Manny both crack the top 5? What about Vladimir Guerrero, Carl Crawford, and Miguel Cabrera?

How about Johann Santana? He's the #1 overall SP in fantasy baseball, but he may not even be the most dominant guy in Minnesota.

It seems that there are a ton of question marks outside of Pujols, Santana, Manny, and Ortiz.
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Postby Yoda » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:39 pm

It's been like this for a few years.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
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Postby jbauer2485 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:43 pm

Yoda wrote:It's been like this for a few years.


I agree with him, it seems like there are going to be a lot more question marks. Right now, I don't think I'd be satisfied with my draft unless I got Pujols.
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Postby The Artful Dodger » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:52 pm

Yes, the last couple of years, we've seen movements in draft positions year to year. After Pujols, I think the top 10 placement is up for debate, but I tend to believe Soriano, Ortiz, and Beltran are well deserving of being taken as top 5 draft picks.
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Postby Belle4Hall88 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:57 pm

Next years drafts should be entertaining.

Definente 1st Rounders:
Albert Pujols
Alfonso Soriano
Carlos Beltran
Vladimir Guerrero
David Ortiz
Manny Ramirez
Johan Santana
Alex Rodriguez

Probable 1st Rounders:
Jose Reyes
Travis Hafner
Carl Crawford
Miguel Cabrera
Ryan Howard
David Wright
Miguel Tejada
Jason Bay

Outside chance to sneak into the 1st round:
Chase Utley
Grady Sizemore
Jermaine Dye
Derek Jeter
Vernon Wells
Lance Berkman
Justin Morneau

Thats 20+ people that have could go 1st round. Also, I always get stuck with some idoit that drafts a closer in the 1st round. Paps, Nathan, Ryan, Mo & K-Rod are all outside shots too IMO.
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Postby disgruntledjetsfan » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:16 pm

Belle4Hall88 wrote:Next years drafts should be entertaining.

Definente 1st Rounders:
Albert Pujols
Alfonso Soriano
Carlos Beltran
Vladimir Guerrero
David Ortiz
Manny Ramirez
Johan Santana
Alex Rodriguez

Probable 1st Rounders:
Jose Reyes
Travis Hafner
Carl Crawford
Miguel Cabrera
Ryan Howard
David Wright
Miguel Tejada
Jason Bay

Outside chance to sneak into the 1st round:
Chase Utley
Grady Sizemore
Jermaine Dye
Derek Jeter
Vernon Wells
Lance Berkman
Justin Morneau

Thats 20+ people that have could go 1st round. Also, I always get stuck with some idoit that drafts a closer in the 1st round. Paps, Nathan, Ryan, Mo & K-Rod are all outside shots too IMO.



Sorry, but there is just no way Sizemore, Jeter, or Dye goes first. I'd have a hard time believing that Berkman would go first as well, since howard, pujols, utley, and ortiz all are better 1b options. Morneau is having a great year, but I'd be surprised if people were willing to take him on in the first round.


I just don't think that next year will be much less predictable than any other year.
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Postby OneLoveBoomer » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:42 pm

I think this is a great question, and I think the original sentiment is correct -- next year will be a question mark.

My thought on the matter is that the shoe-ins like Vlad and ARod and Manny are getting outproduced pretty badly by the likes of Jermaine Dye and others. Take Beltran over Vlad or Manny? Seems early. Take Howard before Crawford? It's unclear to me. And guys like Holliday and Dye -- where on earth are these guys going to go. Reyes -- are people going to go with him over someong like Vlad?

One thing we can all agree on, I'm sure: Yahoo's official rankings will be very, very comical.

Edit: My Pre-rankings right now would be (I don't put Santana in):

Definente 1st Rounders:
1. Albert Pujols
2. Alfonso Soriano
3. Alex Rodriguez
4. David Ortiz
5. Vladimir Guerrero
6. Manny Ramirez
7. Carl Crawford
8. D. Wright
9. Carlos Beltran
10. J. Reyes
11. R. Howard
12. C. Utley
13. Mig. Cabrera
14. D. Jeter
15. M. Tejada
16. T. Hafner
17. J. Dye
18. Bay
19. Abreau
Last edited by OneLoveBoomer on Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby cordscords » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:50 pm

Still a months worth of stats to take in before I even think about sorting out the first round.
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Postby johntudor » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:05 pm

I think the unpredictable part of next year's draft is going to be in regards to SPs. There have so many dominant rookie SPs and maturing aces/number-2's this year that it's gonna shake things up a lot in the 5th-10th rounds and on, I think. My view now is that there'll be a lot more good pitching to choose from next year, which I'm expecting will make me load up on offense early more than the last few years.

It'll be interesting to see how the mock drafts are looking in the preseason, that's for sure.
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Postby sportsguy138 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:40 pm

OneLoveBoomer wrote:I think this is a great question, and I think the original sentiment is correct -- next year will be a question mark.

My thought on the matter is that the shoe-ins like Vlad and ARod and Manny are getting outproduced pretty badly by the likes of Jermaine Dye and others. Take Beltran over Vlad or Manny? Seems early. Take Howard before Crawford? It's unclear to me. And guys like Holliday and Dye -- where on earth are these guys going to go. Reyes -- are people going to go with him over someong like Vlad?

One thing we can all agree on, I'm sure: Yahoo's official rankings will be very, very comical.

Edit: My Pre-rankings right now would be (I don't put Santana in):

Definente 1st Rounders:
1. Albert Pujols
2. Alfonso Soriano
3. Alex Rodriguez
4. David Ortiz
5. Vladimir Guerrero
6. Manny Ramirez
7. Carl Crawford
8. D. Wright
9. Carlos Beltran
10. J. Reyes
11. R. Howard
12. C. Utley
13. Mig. Cabrera
14. D. Jeter
15. M. Tejada
16. T. Hafner
17. J. Dye
18. Bay
19. Abreau


why don't you have santana in there? is he not good enough to crack your top 19? :-?
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