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This Can't Be Tru!!!

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Postby acsguitar » Tue Aug 29, 2006 5:51 pm

activechamp2006 wrote:
jnormy wrote:
wrveres wrote:Adrian Beltre (Tru) is a 2nd half player, always has been always will be.


Last year he hit .249 after the All-Star break...


yeah i know i dont really understand where beltre being a 2nd half player comes from? i think what they mean is hes an *august* player.. he always seems to do well in that month, after august is done, get ridda him.. beltre that is.. we should change his nickname to *tanker* because he tanks your team for you..
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Postby The Artful Dodger » Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:27 pm

activechamp2006 wrote:
jnormy wrote:
wrveres wrote:Adrian Beltre (Tru) is a 2nd half player, always has been always will be.


Last year he hit .249 after the All-Star break...


yeah i know i dont really understand where beltre being a 2nd half player comes from? i think what they mean is hes an *august* player.. he always seems to do well in that month, after august is done, get ridda him.. beltre that is.. we should change his nickname to *tanker* because he tanks your team for you..


You don't many watch Dodger games, do you? Trust me, to the best of my recollection, back in his heyday, Beltre awakened during the dog days of Summer to make us forget another horrific first half, where all the smart aleck naysayers cram the L.A. Times viewpoint letter page of the Saturday sports section to sing of Tru's good graces.
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Postby jnormy » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:21 pm

The Artful Dodger wrote:
activechamp2006 wrote:
jnormy wrote:
wrveres wrote:Adrian Beltre (Tru) is a 2nd half player, always has been always will be.


Last year he hit .249 after the All-Star break...


yeah i know i dont really understand where beltre being a 2nd half player comes from? i think what they mean is hes an *august* player.. he always seems to do well in that month, after august is done, get ridda him.. beltre that is.. we should change his nickname to *tanker* because he tanks your team for you..


You don't many watch Dodger games, do you? Trust me, to the best of my recollection, back in his heyday, Beltre awakened during the dog days of Summer to make us forget another horrific first half, where all the smart aleck naysayers cram the L.A. Times viewpoint letter page of the Saturday sports section to sing of Tru's good graces.


He's a second-half player only relative to how bad he always SUCKS in the first half. He of course has a good first and second half in his one miracle season, and one other pretty good second half. Otherwise they're all pretty much mediocre, except when held up against his usually dismal first-half numbers.

Mediocre... I think that pretty much sums up ol' Tru.
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Postby wrveres » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:07 pm

acsguitar wrote:
activechamp2006 wrote:
jnormy wrote:
wrveres wrote:Adrian Beltre (Tru) is a 2nd half player, always has been always will be.


Last year he hit .249 after the All-Star break...


yeah i know i dont really understand where beltre being a 2nd half player comes from? i think what they mean is hes an *august* player.. he always seems to do well in that month, after august is done, get ridda him.. beltre that is.. we should change his nickname to *tanker* because he tanks your team for you..


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Postby wrveres » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:26 pm

jnormy, you have been around here long enough to know about sample size .. Right? Why don't we take a look at a larger sample size.

Is that a 100 point jump in OPS over the 2nd half? And look at all of that 2nd half pop in less AB's mind you. A career .490 Slg down the stretch .. sweet. ;-D And to think, I can get him cheaper than used mudd at the allstar break.

So you keep thinking ..
jnormy wrote:Last year he hit .249 after the All-Star break...

and I will drop some mudd, and pickup Beltre off the wire ..

every year ..

at the break .. :-)

<pre>
Beltre AB R HR RBI SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Pre 2363 288 76 299 34 15 0.260 0.316 0.421 0.737
Post 2202 309 106 358 41 16 0.282 0.341 0.490 0.831
</pre>
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Postby jnormy » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:45 pm

wrveres wrote:jnormy, you have been around here long enough to know about sample size .. Right? Why don't we take a look at a larger sample size.

Is that a 100 point jump in OPS over the 2nd half? And look at all of that 2nd half pop in less AB's mind you. A career .490 Slg down the stretch .. sweet. ;-D And to think, I can get him cheaper than used mudd at the allstar break.

So you keep thinking ..
jnormy wrote:Last year he hit .249 after the All-Star break...

and I will drop some mudd, and pickup Beltre off the wire ..

every year ..

at the break .. :-)

<pre>
Beltre AB R HR RBI SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Pre 2363 288 76 299 34 15 0.260 0.316 0.421 0.737
Post 2202 309 106 358 41 16 0.282 0.341 0.490 0.831
</pre>


I never said he doesn't improve after the break. Clearly he manages to improve on his own pitiful numbers most years in the 2nd half. I guess I'm still jaded from the original Tru post... that was just outrageous. At least you're throwing some numbers out there, wrveves, props for that.

And you're right, I know all about samples sizes, and I also realize how much one outrageous career year can skew a player's statistics. I took the liberty of figuring out those post-All Star percentages you listed minus his splits from 2004, which everyone knows was just one of those years where Tru was WAY over his head, a complete anomaly if there ever was one. If you want an accurate reading on what might typically be expected of him year-to-year, IMO you have to throw that season's stats away.

So let's just take a look at his post-All Star career stats, minus '04:

BA .271 (11-point drop)
OBP .329 (12-point drop)
SLG .461 (a not-so-sweet 29-point drop)
OPS .790 (41-point drop)

So you see, I took your advice to heart and "kept thinking"... and I'm thinking those are some pretty significant drops considering I only subtracted one season's worth of splits from your sample. That season was a fluke, plain and simple. The rest of the numbers tell the Tru story. So again I say... Tru-ly mediocre.
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Postby phr3ak » Wed Aug 30, 2006 1:10 am

Hope Wright doenst catch Abreu's homer disease
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Postby wrveres » Wed Aug 30, 2006 1:28 am

jnormy wrote:
wrveres wrote:jnormy, you have been around here long enough to know about sample size .. Right? Why don't we take a look at a larger sample size.

Is that a 100 point jump in OPS over the 2nd half? And look at all of that 2nd half pop in less AB's mind you. A career .490 Slg down the stretch .. sweet. ;-D And to think, I can get him cheaper than used mudd at the allstar break.

So you keep thinking ..
jnormy wrote:Last year he hit .249 after the All-Star break...

and I will drop some mudd, and pickup Beltre off the wire ..

every year ..

at the break .. :-)

<pre>
Beltre AB R HR RBI SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Pre 2363 288 76 299 34 15 0.260 0.316 0.421 0.737
Post 2202 309 106 358 41 16 0.282 0.341 0.490 0.831
</pre>


I never said he doesn't improve after the break. Clearly he manages to improve on his own pitiful numbers most years in the 2nd half. I guess I'm still jaded from the original Tru post... that was just outrageous. At least you're throwing some numbers out there, wrveves, props for that.

And you're right, I know all about samples sizes, and I also realize how much one outrageous career year can skew a player's statistics. I took the liberty of figuring out those post-All Star percentages you listed minus his splits from 2004, which everyone knows was just one of those years where Tru was WAY over his head, a complete anomaly if there ever was one. If you want an accurate reading on what might typically be expected of him year-to-year, IMO you have to throw that season's stats away.

So let's just take a look at his post-All Star career stats, minus '04:

BA .271 (11-point drop)
OBP .329 (12-point drop)
SLG .461 (a not-so-sweet 29-point drop)
OPS .790 (41-point drop)

So you see, I took your advice to heart and "kept thinking"... and I'm thinking those are some pretty significant drops considering I only subtracted one season's worth of splits from your sample. That season was a fluke, plain and simple. The rest of the numbers tell the Tru story. So again I say... Tru-ly mediocre.


since you are subtracting stats to suit your arguement, I am guessing you'll have no problem subtracting his also ab-normal, 2nd half of 2005 and seeing what that gives ya .. right? That season was a fluke, plain and simple. :-D
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Postby jnormy » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:27 am

wrveres wrote:
jnormy wrote:
wrveres wrote:jnormy, you have been around here long enough to know about sample size .. Right? Why don't we take a look at a larger sample size.

Is that a 100 point jump in OPS over the 2nd half? And look at all of that 2nd half pop in less AB's mind you. A career .490 Slg down the stretch .. sweet. ;-D And to think, I can get him cheaper than used mudd at the allstar break.

So you keep thinking ..
jnormy wrote:Last year he hit .249 after the All-Star break...

and I will drop some mudd, and pickup Beltre off the wire ..

every year ..

at the break .. :-)

<pre>
Beltre AB R HR RBI SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Pre 2363 288 76 299 34 15 0.260 0.316 0.421 0.737
Post 2202 309 106 358 41 16 0.282 0.341 0.490 0.831
</pre>


I never said he doesn't improve after the break. Clearly he manages to improve on his own pitiful numbers most years in the 2nd half. I guess I'm still jaded from the original Tru post... that was just outrageous. At least you're throwing some numbers out there, wrveves, props for that.

And you're right, I know all about samples sizes, and I also realize how much one outrageous career year can skew a player's statistics. I took the liberty of figuring out those post-All Star percentages you listed minus his splits from 2004, which everyone knows was just one of those years where Tru was WAY over his head, a complete anomaly if there ever was one. If you want an accurate reading on what might typically be expected of him year-to-year, IMO you have to throw that season's stats away.

So let's just take a look at his post-All Star career stats, minus '04:

BA .271 (11-point drop)
OBP .329 (12-point drop)
SLG .461 (a not-so-sweet 29-point drop)
OPS .790 (41-point drop)

So you see, I took your advice to heart and "kept thinking"... and I'm thinking those are some pretty significant drops considering I only subtracted one season's worth of splits from your sample. That season was a fluke, plain and simple. The rest of the numbers tell the Tru story. So again I say... Tru-ly mediocre.


since you are subtracting stats to suit your arguement, I am guessing you'll have no problem subtracting his also ab-normal, 2nd half of 2005 and seeing what that gives ya .. right? That season was a fluke, plain and simple. :-D


Go for it! The final numbers will still be mediocre, and at a loaded 3B position, there are plenty of other options who will give you better than mediocre numbers ALL year.

And if I was playing in a league in which someone was keeping this clown for the entire first half only to dump him after the All-Star break, I'd be looking for a more competitive league... :-P
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Postby nikku88 » Wed Aug 30, 2006 6:48 pm

Beltre's turnaround this year happened before the AS Break. His first 6 weeks were so bad that nobody noticed. His June is still his best month (Not HR wise though).
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