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Best closer of '06

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Who do u think the best closer is this season

Papelbon
37
26%
Nathan
35
25%
Jenks
2
1%
Rivera
20
14%
M. Gonzo
8
6%
F. Rodrigues
10
7%
Hoffman
4
3%
Wagner
6
4%
Ryan
14
10%
Putz
5
4%
 
Total votes : 141

Postby Mugrila » Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:56 am

StlSluggers wrote:
Mugrila wrote:
StlSluggers wrote:How is it that Nathan is losing this???


Because from a fantasy perspective Papelbon has better #s.

Ah. I didn't realize this was a fantasy-only discussion. In that case, I'd rather have Mo.


I don't know if it was strictly fantasy, but thats just how I voted. Real life I'd rather have Nathan too. Just curious, why do you say Mo is/was the best fantasy wise in '06?
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Postby StlSluggers » Fri Sep 01, 2006 11:06 am

Mugrila wrote:Just curious, why do you say Mo is/was the best fantasy wise in '06?

I play H2H, and I place a premium on consistency. Mo closes games with the same reliability as Nathan, but the Yankees provided him with more save opps earlier in the year. Therefore, Mo has been more consistent this year than Nathan. For me, that breaks the tie between them in my preferred format.
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Postby bigh0rt » Fri Sep 01, 2006 12:41 pm

I have my Bachelors of Arts in Mathematics, and am near finished with my Masters in the field... I'm a certified mathematician by the state of New York...I teach the Math you learn... I dictate the GPA you receive... can I have my crown now? O:-)

Gimme Joe Nathan
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Postby ukrneal » Fri Sep 01, 2006 3:21 pm

bigh0rt wrote:I have my Bachelors of Arts in Mathematics, and am near finished with my Masters in the field... I'm a certified mathematician by the state of New York...I teach the Math you learn... I dictate the GPA you receive... can I have my crown now? O:-)

Gimme Joe Nathan


Your tiara is on back order. :)
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Postby spacehamster01 » Fri Sep 01, 2006 4:04 pm

How come Otsuka isn't even in the poll? :-[ Otsuka has been probably the most reliable closer...although he may not have the best ERA out of the closers...he only has 2 Blown Saves in 31 chances.

Papelbon: 6 BS
Nathan: 2 BS
Rivera: 3 BS
Ryan: 4 BS
KRod: 3 BS

The only guy who has less blown saves than Otsuka and Nathan is Gonzalez. The fact that Otsuka isn't even being considered is dog poo.
:-P
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Postby cordscords » Fri Sep 01, 2006 4:06 pm

spacehamster01 wrote:How come Otsuka isn't even in the poll? :-[ Otsuka has been probably the most reliable closer...although he may not have the best ERA out of the closers...he only has 2 Blown Saves in 31 chances.

Papelbon: 6 BS
Nathan: 2 BS
Rivera: 3 BS
Ryan: 4 BS
KRod: 3 BS

The only guy who has less blown saves than Otsuka and Nathan is Gonzalez. The fact that Otsuka isn't even being considered is dog poo.
:-P


And those 2 BS are against the Yanks and the Sox. He's been awesome.
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Postby noseeum » Fri Sep 01, 2006 5:46 pm

davidmarver wrote:
Madison wrote:See? You're not answering the question, you're "adjusting" things (trying not to offend you here, it's a word you used to describe what you're doing) to suit your needs. Here it is a different way, so let's look at what you just said backwards (easy way to check to make sure math is correct, right?).

You just said Ty Cobb was only a 12% better hitter than any random .271 hitter out there. You don't actually believe that, do you? :-?

The reason I adjust things is because you have to gauge just how good a 92% save percentage is. A 92% save percentage is much better for a closer than a .300 batting average is a hitter, so you can't use those starting points. I started the 92% save percentage as the same difference between 92% and Trevor's best save percentage and .390+ and Ty Cobb's % because that's the point where all things are equal and straight comparison works.

As to whether or not Ty Cobb is 12% better than a .271 hitter, as far as hits are concerned: whether or not you get a hit in a given at bat, then Ty Cobb is really only going to get a hit 9.6% of the time more: .366-.270.

However, obviously, talent-wise, Ty Cobb is far more than 12% talented than a .270 hitter, but that's not the question at hand. Nowhere did I say that Trevor is 1.3+% more talented than Rivera, just that his save percentage is .013+ higher, which it is.

Trevor will get 1.34 saves more than Rivera per 100 opportunies, just as a .366 hitter will get 1.34 more hits per 100 at bats than a .353 hitter.

I'll leave this thread to die; it doesn't matter to me (anymore) whether or not you guys take the save percentage statistic to heart or context. I know my math is correct; it's how I got into college, what I do as a student, and what I'll be doing for the rest of my life. Right or wrong, agree to disagree.


Marver, you're making the same mistake every time, as others have explained but you seem to be missing. And in one way, you're actually hurting your argument. Hoffman getting 1.34 more saves per 100 opportunities does not mean he is 1.34 % better. To say person B is X% better than person A, you start with a baseline of person A's performance. You're using 100% as the baseline instead of Mariano's performance.

Instead, you need to do two calculations:

Calculation 1: Hoffman's percentage (B) - Rivera's percentage (A) = X

Calcultation 2: X/A * 100

So let's see with these two:
.89544 - .88197 = .01347

.01347/.88197 * 100 = ~1.53 %

So Hoffman's save percentage is approximately 1.53 percent better than Rivera's.

Now to bring this back to batting average, a .01347 difference in batting average is a significanly higher percentage difference in performance because the baseline is so much lower.

Let's take a .290 hitter and a .30347 hitter.

Difference again is .01347, but .01347/.290 * 100 = ~4.64%

I think that should get us on the same level of comparison, and I will say again the a 1.53% difference in performance is negligible and should be discounted when comparing these two guys.

A 5% difference for the batter is significant but not huge.
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Postby davidmarver » Fri Sep 01, 2006 5:55 pm

Mookie4ever wrote:And the winner of the award for losing all credibility as arrogantly as possible is David Marver. Insulting an admin while bragging about his school and his grades. :-°

What a joke.

Madison wrote:attending a school, and actually learning something while there is completely different.

Madison wrote:I know you like to skew numbers to manipulate others, but in this case, the manipulation is obvious.

I'm pretty sure he was questioning my credibility with numbers. Go ahead and pick at the fact that I mentioned grades and major, but it made perfect sense given what the administrator was trying to insinuate: faulty numbers.

And Jesus, the Texas public school hit was a joke. :-°

Mookie wrote:"Runs created" is whatever THT or whatever source best suits Marver says it is. That's because it's different things for different people.

Gotowarmissagnes wrote:I have no idea if marver is right on the whole argument, but I do know this---he's a lot more right about the stats.

And yet I still get garbage like:
Madison wrote:I know you like to skew numbers to manipulate others, but in this case, the manipulation is obvious.

thrown at me whenever I make posts including numbers. You go and tell me exactly what numbers were manipulated at any point in time, and I will a) show you a source and b) explain why that number is being used to support that argument.

Tavish wrote:The problem is you can't make a comparison in that way. That is the equivalant of saying a 1.000 OPS guy is 50% better than a .500 OPS guy when he is 100% better.

OPS isn't a two-result statistic: succeed, fail. Batting average and save percentage are; the difference between the save percentage and the difference between batting average both mean the same thing: the difference between succeeding and failing.

The funny part about this thread is that I posted this:
davidmarver wrote:I'll leave this thread to die; it doesn't matter to me (anymore) whether or not you guys take the save percentage statistic to heart or context. I know my math is correct; it's how I got into college, what I do as a student, and what I'll be doing for the rest of my life. Right or wrong, agree to disagree.

And you know what I got? Another response about mathematics from the administrator. It's like you're egging me on, hoping I'm going to do something to get myself penalized or banned. Fat chance.
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Postby davidmarver » Fri Sep 01, 2006 6:01 pm

noseeum wrote:Marver, you're making the same mistake every time, as others have explained but you seem to be missing. And in one way, you're actually hurting your argument. Hoffman getting 1.34 more saves per 100 opportunities does not mean he is 1.34 % better.

I didn't say that Hoffman was 1.34% better, just that he succeeds 1.34 times out 100 more often.

Trevor succeeds the same amount of times out of 1000, 13.4, over Rivera, as a .3134 hitters over a .300 hitter.

Batting average and save percentage are both two result statistics: success, fail. That makes this sort of comparison possible. Sure, you can use the way you did to get a better gauge in response to talent, but that's not what I was ever insinuating.

I was saying that Trevor succeeds 1.34 more times out of 100 just like a .3134 succeeds 1.34 more time out of 100 over a .300 hitter. That's the basis for my comparison; it's a lot more intuitive than dividing by attempts to get a position gauge.
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Postby Madison » Fri Sep 01, 2006 6:37 pm

davidmarver wrote:
Mookie4ever wrote:And the winner of the award for losing all credibility as arrogantly as possible is David Marver. Insulting an admin while bragging about his school and his grades. :-°

What a joke.

Madison wrote:attending a school, and actually learning something while there is completely different.

Madison wrote:I know you like to skew numbers to manipulate others, but in this case, the manipulation is obvious.

I'm pretty sure he was questioning my credibility with numbers. Go ahead and pick at the fact that I mentioned grades and major, but it made perfect sense given what the administrator was trying to insinuate: faulty numbers.

And Jesus, the Texas public school hit was a joke. :-°


Where did I question your ability with numbers? I said you were manipulating them, and I stand by that. That's not a dig or an insult, it's simply what you're doing (as you said "adjusting" - same difference). Not that big of a deal man, but it sure seems like you're looking for a fight.

There's been what, 4, 5 people including me telling you the way you're doing the numbers is wrong? Yet you insist on resorting to insults, instead of simply acknowledging that your comparison is inaccurate? That's quite sad man.

davidmarver wrote:
Mookie wrote:"Runs created" is whatever THT or whatever source best suits Marver says it is. That's because it's different things for different people.

Gotowarmissagnes wrote:I have no idea if marver is right on the whole argument, but I do know this---he's a lot more right about the stats.

And yet I still get garbage like:
Madison wrote:I know you like to skew numbers to manipulate others, but in this case, the manipulation is obvious.

thrown at me whenever I make posts including numbers.


When have I done that? Quick Answer: I haven't. You're jumping me because others may have done that? Very classy David, and definitely shows this higher intelligence you seem to think you have.

davidmarver wrote:The funny part about this thread is that I posted this:
davidmarver wrote:I'll leave this thread to die; it doesn't matter to me (anymore) whether or not you guys take the save percentage statistic to heart or context. I know my math is correct; it's how I got into college, what I do as a student, and what I'll be doing for the rest of my life. Right or wrong, agree to disagree.

And you know what I got? Another response about mathematics from the administrator. It's like you're egging me on, hoping I'm going to do something to get myself penalized or banned. Fat chance.


I happen to have to work while posting, started my last post before your "walk away" post was up, and this discussion is hardly worth my time, so it took awhile to get it finished and actually posted. I also haven't made a single post since my last one since you said you were going to let this die. Figured I'd to the same. Use a little resoning and you'll see that I was not egging you on. It was a time/priority thing, and this discussion is very low priority as I knew it was nothing more than a waste of time.

Just walk away like you said you were going to do. I was all done with this thread until you just had to start firing incorrect shots again. Ridiculous.
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