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Quality Starts > Wins

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Quality Starts > Wins

Postby Gold Rush » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:06 am

I think all leagues should forget about wins altogher as a stat. It's a much better statistic to go by than wins. Take Dan Haren's start against the Blue Jays for example...5.2 IP's, 11 hits, 9 ER's, 2 BB's, and 4 K's....yet somehow a fantasy team still gets something out of him cause they get a win.

In one of my 14 team leagues, I have a 14 in ERA, a 13.5 in WHIP, and a 14 in K's, yet somehow, I only get a 3.5 in wins(and I'm projected to go 30 innings over the max, so I don't have a low total of wins cause of less innings than everyone else). That has completely killed my teams chances of winning. I've clearly had the best pitching all year long, yet my team was run out of contention because of a luck stat

That just goes to show that wins are completely a matter of luck, and quality starts really show a sign of truely a good fantasy pitching stat.

Any thoughts...?
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Postby cordscords » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:37 am

A 6 IP, 3 ER performance is solid, but it doesnt show how truely good your staff if you have a team full of those guys.
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Postby eftda » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:45 am

Its a fixed feeling stat because it is so unpredictable. I use to punt wins in my H2H leagues for saves, era and whip.
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Re: Quality Starts > Wins

Postby Dislexic Irishman » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:52 am

Gold Rush wrote:Take Dan Haren's start against the Blue Jays for example...5.2 IP's, 11 hits, 9 ER's, 2 BB's, and 4 K's....yet somehow a fantasy team still gets something out of him cause they get a win.

As opposed to Haren's start today:
7 IP, 7 hits, 3 ER, 2 BB, 12 K's, NO W

I pretty sure most everyone would take todays start over the Blue Jay's start even without the win. That said, quality starts is basically already a cat in ERA. I know its not exactly, but frequency of QS's and ERA should usually go hand in hand.
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Re: Quality Starts > Wins

Postby mikekim2121 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:14 am

Dislexic Irishman wrote:I know its not exactly, but frequency of QS's and ERA should usually go hand in hand.

Of course it does, since QS is directly related to how many runs he gives up over atleast a certain amount of innings. You can't have a QS while having an ERA of 7.00 in a game.
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Postby Gold Rush » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:42 am

Dislexic Irishman wrote:
Gold Rush wrote:Take Dan Haren's start against the Blue Jays for example...5.2 IP's, 11 hits, 9 ER's, 2 BB's, and 4 K's....yet somehow a fantasy team still gets something out of him cause they get a win.

As opposed to Haren's start today:
7 IP, 7 hits, 3 ER, 2 BB, 12 K's, NO W

I pretty sure most everyone would take todays start over the Blue Jay's start even without the win. That said, quality starts is basically already a cat in ERA. I know its not exactly, but frequency of QS's and ERA should usually go hand in hand.


I'm pretty sure everyone would take that start over the one that I last stated. But if you like to look at it that way, over his last 2 starts he should've only had one win(if even), and he did, so I guess it evens out there.

cordscords wrote:A 6 IP, 3 ER performance is solid, but it doesnt show how truely good your staff if you have a team full of those guys.


Yea, but if all your guys can consistently put up a quality start, then they should all be 20 game winners right?

Take Roger Clemens for example, he is the absolute PERFECT example for this because fantasy teams did not get all that they deserved out of him last year. How does Roy Oswalt get 7 more wins than Clemens when Clemens ERA was more than a whole point better than Oswalt's, and they played for the same team. So in some leagues, because of the wins, Oswalt had more value than Clemens. That further proves that wins as a stat is complete luck. Now if leagues used the Quality Start over Wins, Clemens would've had BY FAR the most value out of any pitcher last year, as his ERA and K's per showed that he was, but his lack of wins showed that he wasn't
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Postby deerayfan072 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:42 am

eftda wrote:Its a fixed feeling stat because it is so unpredictable. I use to punt wins in my H2H leagues for saves, era and whip.


I punt W's for ERA, WHIP, and Saves every year. Works out for me. I usually have 5 closers, sometimes 6 if i can get a guy like Papelbon with Sp elig. Grab couple guys like Kaz, Zambarano, and u can win every now and then on K's as well.
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Postby rainman23 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:27 pm

The idea about QS and ERA going hand-in-hand -- true to a large extent, undoubtedly. QS could reward that guy who's a little more consistent, though. Two guys can have exactly the same ERA, but with radically different standard deviations. In both real life and fantasy ball, you'd probably rather have the guy who's consistent to the "feast or famine" guy. QS rewards that consistent performer.
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Postby cordscords » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:28 pm

Gold Rush wrote:Take Roger Clemens for example, he is the absolute PERFECT example for this because fantasy teams did not get all that they deserved out of him last year. How does Roy Oswalt get 7 more wins than Clemens when Clemens ERA was more than a whole point better than Oswalt's, and they played for the same team. So in some leagues, because of the wins, Oswalt had more value than Clemens. That further proves that wins as a stat is complete luck. Now if leagues used the Quality Start over Wins, Clemens would've had BY FAR the most value out of any pitcher last year, as his ERA and K's per showed that he was, but his lack of wins showed that he wasn't


While Clemens did get shafted a little bit on the W's, you do have a better chance of earning a decision if you go deeper into the game. Clemens averaged 6.6 IP as start. Dontrelle Willis (the league leader in Wins) averaged 6.95. The runner up Chris Carpenter averaged 7.3 IP a start. Obviously the longer you stick aroun in the game, you have more chances for your team to put up some runs. That's part of the reason his win total was so low.
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Postby acsguitar » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:35 pm

I hate wins and losses.

I'd much rather see QS's next year
I'm too lazy to make a sig at the moment
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