Andrew Miller or Phillip Hughes?

[CT Smash]

If you had to choose one as a keeper this year, who would it be based on potential/ETA/etc.?

Thanks.

[shortsavage]

Given that Hughes is younger, more established, and will probably be up earlier or by the same time as Miller (not counting Miller's auto-Sept. callup), I think you have to take him.

I don't have a good comparison about how lethal each of their stuff is off the top of my head, though. Maybe someone can chime in about that.

Really, you can't go wrong with either of these guys.

[J35J]

Hughes

[ukjohn]

Hughes, no doubt about it

[shortsavage]

I called into mlb radio's Around the Minors this morning and asked Jonathan Mayo and Lisa Winston what they need to see out of a player before they consider him to be an elite prospect.

They agreed that it usually takes about a year of minor league experience before a draft pick can be considered elite. But said there are definite cases where a guy joins the league already with elite prospect status (like Justin Upton, Cameron Maybin, and Evan Longoria). We didn't get to pitchers, but I recall Jim Callis saying that Andrew Miller is already a top 20 prospect in his books, so that's elite in my mind.

This said, I don't see how you can say there is no doubt that Phillip Hughes is a better keeper than Andrew Miller. Hughes was ranked #39 by Baseball America entering the season. Has he really climbed so far up the rankings that he has distanced himself that much from a guy who will likely enter 2007 as one of Baseball America's top 25 prospects?

[hybrid]

This said, I don't see how you can say there is no doubt that Phillip Hughes is a better keeper than Andrew Miller. Hughes was ranked #39 by Baseball America entering the season. Has he really climbed so far up the rankings that he has distanced himself that much from a guy who will likely enter 2007 as one of Baseball America's top 25 prospects?

Yeah, in my mind Hughes is Top 10 and right there with Bailey as the top pitching prospect in the minors. Not only has he had one of the best years pitching wise, you have to remember quite a few of the prospects in front of him also have lost their eligibility to be considered prospects. Miller might prove to be an equal of Hughes next season or close to it, but Hughes has already proven what he is at AA. Miller has showed what he "could" be potentially because of his talent and pitching in college, but not at the same level as Hughes.

[rmande09]

I called into mlb radio's Around the Minors this morning and asked Jonathan Mayo and Lisa Winston what they need to see out of a player before they consider him to be an elite prospect.

They agreed that it usually takes about a year of minor league experience before a draft pick can be considered elite. But said there are definite cases where a guy joins the league already with elite prospect status (like Justin Upton, Cameron Maybin, and Evan Longoria). We didn't get to pitchers, but I recall Jim Callis saying that Andrew Miller is already a top 20 prospect in his books, so that's elite in my mind.

This said, I don't see how you can say there is no doubt that Phillip Hughes is a better keeper than Andrew Miller. Hughes was ranked #39 by Baseball America entering the season. Has he really climbed so far up the rankings that he has distanced himself that much from a guy who will likely enter 2007 as one of Baseball America's top 25 prospects?

Simply, yes, he has. He'll be a top 10-12 prospect entering the next season. With the graduations of prospects who were ahead of him in 2006 and his ridiculous performance this season, it's a no-brainer he has shot up to top 10. He is 8 on my list, though that should fluctuate a bit within some of the "actual" lists (BA, Analysts, MiLB). Lets look at Hughes' season.

He started the year as a 19 year old at A+ Tampa and dominated. He didn't turn 20 until late-June, long after he had been dominating at AA. Not only are his basic stats great (a combined 2.32 ERA, 154 Ks), but every stat any scout "guru" looks at is great, too:

K/9: 10.19 - excellent
BB/9: 2.18 - absurd for a 20 year old with power stuff
H/9: 5.96 - ....
K/BB: 4.67 - speechless
WHIP: 0.90
BAA: .186
HR/9: 0.33
GB:FB: 168:95... which is a ridiculous GB% of 64%. That would be #1 (or 2) in all of ML baseball this season.

Just look at those stats. And to think he's done this at a very young age for his level. His per 9 stats are unparalleled, his BAA is unreal, and, even more impressive, for a power/K pitcher, his HR/9 is ludicrously low and his GB% is awesome. He is the best pitching prospect in all of baseball, hands down.

[Havok1517]

HAHA

Hughes by a ton.

I'm not saying Miller will never be on the level of Hughes. I'm just saying right now Hughes by a huge margin considering how good he's been as a professional compared to Miller only having, I believe, 2 appearances as a pro. Who knows how Miller will translate as a pro. We know how Hughes has coming out of HS.

[raiders_umpire]

As much as I love Miller for being a Tarheel, I would have to take Hughes and it is not even close. Hughes K rate as a 20 year old has been absolutely amazing. Hughes will definitely be my #1 pitching prospect going into next season. Miller will probably be in my top 10 as far as pitching, but he has to have one heckuva year next year to match what Hughes has done this year.

[shortsavage]

How about guys like Jered Weaver and Justin Verlander who were taken in the 2004 draft and just two years later are contributing in big ways?

Have you guys attempted to translate Andrew Miller's numbers? Do you think he isn't even on the same tier as Weaver and Verlander?

I'm with you that Hughes seems like the safer pick. But I'm not going to tell someone that Hughes is better than Miller by a land slide because we don't have the greatest idea what Miller is going to bring to the table. And just because there is more uncertainty around Miller right now, doesn't mean he isn't in the same ballpark as Hughes. Who knows, Miller could end up having an amazing year next year.

Hughes appears to be the safer pick right now, but I haven't come across conclusive enough evidence