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Grady Sizemore overrated?

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Postby cordscords » Wed Aug 30, 2006 1:24 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:
jswede wrote:The original question was "how good can Sizemore become?" and if he's worth a 3rd round pick baseed on that.

Last year (1st full season):
.289, 22 HR, 111 R, 81 RBI, 22 SB (batting 2nd?)

This year (projected):
.296, 24 HR, 132 R, 73 RBI, 23 SB (batting leadoff)

Considering he just turned 24 about 3 weeks ago, I'd say he can step up a little bit across the board. So let's say for the 2008 season, batting 2nd or 3rd, he's at:

.305, 30 HR, 125 R, 90 RBI, 30 SB

Fairly conservative estimates, imo. I'd be all over that in round 3.

In 2010, he'll start the season as a 27yr old. I would, ahem, want him on my roster.

Thing is, just marginal improvements across the board for a 5 stat guy is HUGE.

But when he does switch to 3rd in that lineup will he continue to steal?


I realize that Crawford has more speed, less protection around him than Sizemore, and has a manager that's aggresive on the basepaths, but he's the only example off the top of my head that has moved from 1 to 3 and has speed. In 65 AB hitting out of the #3 spot he has 9 SB. So it hasnt stopped him from swiping bags.

I'd worry about a slight dip in SB, but still a very solid source of them.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Aug 30, 2006 1:33 pm

cordscords wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:
jswede wrote:The original question was "how good can Sizemore become?" and if he's worth a 3rd round pick baseed on that.

Last year (1st full season):
.289, 22 HR, 111 R, 81 RBI, 22 SB (batting 2nd?)

This year (projected):
.296, 24 HR, 132 R, 73 RBI, 23 SB (batting leadoff)

Considering he just turned 24 about 3 weeks ago, I'd say he can step up a little bit across the board. So let's say for the 2008 season, batting 2nd or 3rd, he's at:

.305, 30 HR, 125 R, 90 RBI, 30 SB

Fairly conservative estimates, imo. I'd be all over that in round 3.

In 2010, he'll start the season as a 27yr old. I would, ahem, want him on my roster.

Thing is, just marginal improvements across the board for a 5 stat guy is HUGE.

But when he does switch to 3rd in that lineup will he continue to steal?


I realize that Crawford has more speed, less protection around him than Sizemore, and has a manager that's aggresive on the basepaths, but he's the only example off the top of my head that has moved from 1 to 3 and has speed. In 65 AB hitting out of the #3 spot he has 9 SB. So it hasnt stopped him from swiping bags.

I'd worry about a slight dip in SB, but still a very solid source of them.
Yeah the manager will have a lot to say about it but Crawford doesn't exactly have a hitter like Hafner behind him.
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Postby activechamp2006 » Wed Aug 30, 2006 3:46 pm

sizemore will not drive in 90 runs batting lead off its just not going to happen.. and if he moves to the number 3 spot he will not steal 30 bases.. its as easy as that.. sizemores power has only slightly increased this year over last year, and i dont see it changing much again.. next year i would look for around 25 hr 23sbs 75rbi 310avg with 125runs.. i see him being similar to this the rest of his career.. and alex rios was a very good comparison to sizemore.. they are both young and have similar potential.. rios can be a 25-25 guy himself. im sure he would have been if not for the injury he he had this season.. sizemore and rios will have similar numbers next season, im calling that right now.. and you can probably get rios 2 or 3 rounds after sizemore. in the 5th or 6th.
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Postby mweir145 » Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:00 pm

activechamp2006 wrote:sizemore will not drive in 90 runs batting lead off its just not going to happen.. and if he moves to the number 3 spot he will not steal 30 bases.. its as easy as that.. sizemores power has only slightly increased this year over last year, and i dont see it changing much again.. next year i would look for around 25 hr 23sbs 75rbi 310avg with 125runs.. i see him being similar to this the rest of his career.. and alex rios was a very good comparison to sizemore.. they are both young and have similar potential.. rios can be a 25-25 guy himself. im sure he would have been if not for the injury he he had this season.. sizemore and rios will have similar numbers next season, im calling that right now.. and you can probably get rios 2 or 3 rounds after sizemore. in the 5th or 6th.

I think Rios was playing over his head earlier in the season, and his recent play over the last month or so solidifies that assumption. Some could argue that his staph infection has brought his numbers down, and that might partially be the case, but he's all better now and he's still hitting nothing. And when you compare to two players, Sizemore has a much better sense of the strikezone, too. Rios also isn't a great base stealer either. He has speed, but he doesn't know how to get good jumps. I'd call Sizemore a much more valuable fantasy player than Rios next year because you atleast know you'll be getting great production out of him. Rios is a far more risk-reward guy for next year. If he gets back to what he was doing before the AS break, that's top fantasy production, making him well worth the draft pick, but he could easily fall back into what he's doing now, or what he was doing pre-2006.
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Postby mbuser » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:25 pm

sizemore had 60 XBH in 158 G last season and is on pace for 92 in 162 G this season -- 32 more XBH certainly is added power. last season his GB/LD/FB% were 45/25/31 and this season they are 43/19/47. if he keeps this up he will hit more than 25 home runs easily and often throughout his career. maybe not huge amounts but i doubt he tops off at 25 at all
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Postby Manfred » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:15 pm

Sizemore is at most 2 yrs away from a 35 HR season. My guess is that he moves to 3 hole next yr, hits 30 hrs and drives in 100.

If you get him in the 4th round of a keeper, consider yourself extremely lucky.
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