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Grady Sizemore overrated?

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Postby go_jays_go » Sun Aug 27, 2006 12:58 am

DK wrote:
go_jays_go wrote:
Pedantic wrote:Good call on Sizemore's FKR. I hadn't even noticed that. It correctly predicted a number of breakouts, including Bill Hall's outburst, IIRC.


Thanks. I noticed Bill Hall with KTG and I was truly impressed. It just shows a lot about him as a player and he'll continue to show signs of dominance. ;-D


Oh man, I'd forgotten all about Hall's KTG. Using that in conjunction with his PKR it was a no-brainer he was going to break out this year.


Call me crazy but putting these stats and many others together I almost knew he was going to tear the ball apart, I just tried to keep it on the DL. In fact, I'm already looking for breakout candidates for the 2007 season. Anyone else start researching? :-?
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Postby mbuser » Sun Aug 27, 2006 1:52 pm

can someone actually explain what FKR and KTG are?

and using byrnes is definitely not a good basis for the argument. it's be like saying that manny is overrated because jermaine dye is having his monster season. and byrnes has hit .226 since june 1, so by the end of the season i anticipate it being even loss logical of a comparison

sizemore has played in every game this season, and his projections for 162 games entering today:

.296 (195/659), 56 2B, 11 3B, 24 HR, 132 R, 73 RBI, 23 SB

that sure works for me
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Postby raiders_umpire » Sun Aug 27, 2006 1:57 pm

mbuser wrote:
.296 (195/659), 56 2B, 11 3B, 24 HR, 132 R, 73 RBI, 23 SB

that sure works for me



It sure works for me as well. 20-20 with 130 runs scored and 70 RBIs as well. Tack on the 300 average, and he plays everyday, I see nothing to complain about.
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Postby cordscords » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:35 pm

Can anybody please define some of the stats that were mentioned in this thread? And pass along any information on where I can find (or purchase as somebody mentioned) these stats?

I'd appreciate it.
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Postby Ender » Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:02 pm

I thought he was overrated going into the season. He was going early 3rd round in most drafts and I see him as more of a late 4th round guy. So far he has done about what I expected, though I thought his steals would be down around 15 since he's not a great base stealer.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:00 pm

Ender wrote:I thought he was overrated going into the season. He was going early 3rd round in most drafts and I see him as more of a late 4th round guy. So far he has done about what I expected, though I thought his steals would be down around 15 since he's not a great base stealer.
I didn't see him much last year but he must have made some really big strides in stealing then cause he has done a great job this year.
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Postby perlick29 » Wed Aug 30, 2006 8:27 am

Pedantic wrote:
DK wrote:
go_jays_go wrote:
Pedantic wrote:Good call on Sizemore's FKR. I hadn't even noticed that. It correctly predicted a number of breakouts, including Bill Hall's outburst, IIRC.


Thanks. I noticed Bill Hall with KTG and I was truly impressed. It just shows a lot about him as a player and he'll continue to show signs of dominance. ;-D


Oh man, I'd forgotten all about Hall's KTG. Using that in conjunction with his PKR it was a no-brainer he was going to break out this year.


As they say, hindsight is always 20/20. He would have been an absolutely fantastic pickup in my NL-only if I'd been paying attention to the numbers. Oh, well, live and learn. I'm definitely going to be looking at KTG much harder this offseason.


Now I know where I went wrong. I drafted Hall but dropped him early on figuring he wouldn't get any playing time. Someone else grabbed him but I forgot totally about his PKR and KTG, and should have held on to him. Mistakes to be corrected I guess. Someone to look out for a monster year based soley on the previous stats is Prince Fielder. ;-D
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Postby mbuser » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:29 pm

so i guess TKR and KTG say that if someone had a good season in 05, there was a chance they would have a reallygood season in 06
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Postby jswede » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:37 pm

The original question was "how good can Sizemore become?" and if he's worth a 3rd round pick baseed on that.

Last year (1st full season):
.289, 22 HR, 111 R, 81 RBI, 22 SB (batting 2nd?)

This year (projected):
.296, 24 HR, 132 R, 73 RBI, 23 SB (batting leadoff)

Considering he just turned 24 about 3 weeks ago, I'd say he can step up a little bit across the board. So let's say for the 2008 season, batting 2nd or 3rd, he's at:

.305, 30 HR, 125 R, 90 RBI, 30 SB

Fairly conservative estimates, imo. I'd be all over that in round 3.

In 2010, he'll start the season as a 27yr old. I would, ahem, want him on my roster.

Thing is, just marginal improvements across the board for a 5 stat guy is HUGE.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Aug 30, 2006 1:17 pm

jswede wrote:The original question was "how good can Sizemore become?" and if he's worth a 3rd round pick baseed on that.

Last year (1st full season):
.289, 22 HR, 111 R, 81 RBI, 22 SB (batting 2nd?)

This year (projected):
.296, 24 HR, 132 R, 73 RBI, 23 SB (batting leadoff)

Considering he just turned 24 about 3 weeks ago, I'd say he can step up a little bit across the board. So let's say for the 2008 season, batting 2nd or 3rd, he's at:

.305, 30 HR, 125 R, 90 RBI, 30 SB

Fairly conservative estimates, imo. I'd be all over that in round 3.

In 2010, he'll start the season as a 27yr old. I would, ahem, want him on my roster.

Thing is, just marginal improvements across the board for a 5 stat guy is HUGE.

But when he does switch to 3rd in that lineup will he continue to steal?
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