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Eric Duncan

Postby shortsavage » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:43 pm

Eric Duncan started the year as a 21-year-old in AAA and was clearly overmatched (23-110, .209). But even though he is only batting .248, Duncan has more than held his own in AA, evidenced by his .485 slugging percentage.

Brandon Wood (also 21 and in AA) has an OPS of 907. Duncan, 6'3'' 195, sits at 840. The two have the exact same on-base percentage, .355, so Wood's slugging percentage is .067 higher.

Baseball America listed Duncan as its #86 prospect after he put up a 734 OPS in AA last year. Has his solid 2006 stint in AA improved his prospect status to the point where he should at least be a top 75 prospect entering 2007?
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Postby rmande09 » Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:19 pm

Unlikely. He's repeating the level and really hasn't done a lot. That .248 average is really, really poor, especially considering he isn't a big time strikeout guy. What that calls to everyone is that he makes a lot of weak contact, and as a 21 year old repeating AA, that's not acceptable.

Of course, he could be ripping the ball and they just end up being hit right at someone, though I doubt anyone could have that bad of luck for a full season. He may have good power, but a .248 average in AA does not translate to the bigs in any way.
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Postby shortsavage » Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:46 pm

Duncan only hit .235 in AA last season - his minor league career batting average is about .258.

Did BA overrated him going into 2006?

Is he someone who will stick around the bottom of most top 100 prospect lists?

Does hitting .010-.015 points higher, improving your K/BB rate drastically (2.31 in 05, 1.19 in 06), and slugging much better .077 points higher while repeating a level really not say a lot?
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Postby rmande09 » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:05 pm

I think it may even hurt his value more. Continuing to hit that poorly is just a bad sign. He doesn't have scary power, so that average really will not play at any position. He needs to drastically improve there to really be considered a top prospect.
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Postby shortsavage » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:52 pm

You're probably right about Duncan's potential rank. Even Adam Dunn was a .300 hitter in the minors.
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Postby ukjohn » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:45 pm

out of top 100, IMO
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Postby shortsavage » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:03 am

ukjohn wrote:out of top 100, IMO


Just for you, Duncan has a 1.19K/BB ratio. I keep trying to find reasons to knock him out of my top 75, but Duncan keeps giving me reasons to put him back in my top 50.

I know the 21-year-old is repeating AA, but he has made noticable improvements over last season (+106 in OPS and gone from a K/BB ratio of 2.31 to the 1.19). He's also getting on base more often and slugging well above the level he did last season. Duncan doesn't really look like a star anymore, but why can't he be a rock-solid major leaguer?
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Postby rmande09 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:58 am

Because he's hitting .248, and that translates to about .200 in the Majors, and this is also his second year in double-A. A .200 hitting Golg Glove third baseman would not be acceptable, and I'm pretty sure Duncan is merely average defensively.

He has a long way to go.
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Postby ukjohn » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:30 pm

shortsavage wrote:
ukjohn wrote:out of top 100, IMO


Just for you, Duncan has a 1.19K/BB ratio. I keep trying to find reasons to knock him out of my top 75, but Duncan keeps giving me reasons to put him back in my top 50.

I know the 21-year-old is repeating AA, but he has made noticable improvements over last season (+106 in OPS and gone from a K/BB ratio of 2.31 to the 1.19). He's also getting on base more often and slugging well above the level he did last season. Duncan doesn't really look like a star anymore, but why can't he be a rock-solid major leaguer?


repeating levels is never a good thing

he got so much hype because he was a Yankee, but to be honest he was never a top 25 prospect, IMO
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Postby shortsavage » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:42 pm

Put me in the records as saying that like Andy LaRoche - but definitely further down top prospect lists - Eric Duncan is one of the most underrated prospects in the minors right now.

I guess he'll have to shred up AAA like he has AA this season and hit for a higher average in order to move on up around here.
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