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Is Santana the clear cut Cy Young winner?

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Postby Zito is God » Sun Aug 20, 2006 11:04 pm

ARCH wrote:Halladay has lost his K ability 8-o
And that makes him any less of a pitcher :-?

Why don't we include Daniel Cabrera in that Cy voting, his K/9 is sensational ;-7


You're fighting a losing battle here. To say that Ks are not important in the Cy Young voting is ridiculous.

Yes, when you can't strikeout guys you are less of a pitcher then someone who can. You can't honestly tell me that Halladay today is the same pitcher then Halladay with 200+ Ks a couple of years back. Think!
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Postby Zito is God » Sun Aug 20, 2006 11:09 pm

On top of that, let me point out that Daniel Cabrera has no ability. Your example would be legit if Ks were the only thing that mattered.

The fact of the matter is that common sense tells you that a pitcher with good strikeout ability and decent/good control will generally have better ERA and WHIP then one that doesn't (Wang would be a top 10 pitcher if he could K guys). When you can strikeout batters you can get out of tougher situations, and will generally win more games (exclusing run support statistics) because when you K a guy you give no chance for an error, no chance for a FC to move up, no chance for a sac fly, etc.
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Postby mweir145 » Sun Aug 20, 2006 11:14 pm

Zito is God wrote:I am a Hallday owner and I see Santana winning it if the season ended today. I believe Halladay (for whatever reason) lost his K ability and that greatly limits his overall potential in ERA and WHIP as well as the K category. Halladay will need at least 3 more wins then Santana to take it from him IMO.

Halladay has been quoted as saying that he's purposely trying to get batters out faster by way of contact instead of going for strikeouts. One could argue that this new method of pitching has hurt him (his numbers aren't anywhere near what he was doing last season), but he still has the best winning percentage in the entire league, and for the most part is doing what he has to do to get wins. He also hasn't had any arm problems since the first week of the season, which is another reason why he might have moved to this method. I'm really not sure why you think K's should even be a factor in determining what a pitcher's value is (atleast real wise, obviously not in fantasy). Santana has been better than Halladay this year, but it's not because he's thrown more Ks than him. Ks are still outs just like all the other outs. It's obviously good to throw them because you don't have to leave it to your defense to get outs, but I don't think Ks are going to be the deciding factor in who wins the Cy Young. It's going to be wins. Even with the massive difference in Ks, ERA, and WHIP between Johan and Bartolo last season, Colon still won because of his wins. This could very much be the same, except Halladay could be much closer in ERA/WHIP than Bartolo was.
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Postby Zito is God » Sun Aug 20, 2006 11:17 pm

Bartolo had a good deal more wins. You can't honestly tell me that halladay will win the Cy Young if he ends up with 20 W while Santana brings his 19 W and 200+ Ks to the table.
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Postby mweir145 » Sun Aug 20, 2006 11:21 pm

Zito is God wrote:
ARCH wrote:Halladay has lost his K ability 8-o
And that makes him any less of a pitcher :-?

Why don't we include Daniel Cabrera in that Cy voting, his K/9 is sensational ;-7


You're fighting a losing battle here. To say that Ks are not important in the Cy Young voting is ridiculous.

Yes, when you can't strikeout guys you are less of a pitcher then someone who can. You can't honestly tell me that Halladay today is the same pitcher then Halladay with 200+ Ks a couple of years back. Think!

That's a good question. Halladay's K/9 in his only 200 K season was 6.9, this season it's 5.2. But other than that, there really isn't a major difference. Both the ERA and WHIPs are similar, he's walking the same amount per 9 innings, and his HR/9 is actually down.
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Postby mweir145 » Sun Aug 20, 2006 11:26 pm

Zito is God wrote:Bartolo had a good deal more wins. You can't honestly tell me that halladay will win the Cy Young if he ends up with 20 W while Santana brings his 19 W and 200+ Ks to the table.

20 wins seems to be a big "thing" among voters, but they also tend to overvalue Ks too. It could be very close if something like that happens. American bias and the fact that many writers across the country might now have seen Halladay pitch very much, if at all, might be a problem too now that I think of it.
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Postby Zito is God » Sun Aug 20, 2006 11:33 pm

I never meant to imply that Ks are everything, but they factor in just like everything else. If you think Ks are meaningless in voting I can make the exact same arguement for just about every stat on the table (maybe not ERA, but every other one):

NOTE: This is strictly hypothetical and I do not believe in these arguements, I believe all stats should be evaluated to decide the winner...however:

Wins: I would argue that wins are situational due to run support and thus are meaningless in showing strict ability.

WHIP: I would argue that as long as I keep my team in it WHIP does not matter (Note: I actually believe WHIP is the most important stats of all). If a pitcher walked 3 guys per inning but Ked the other 3 and ended up not giving up any runs one could argue that WHIP is meaningless since no harm was caused.

BAA: I could argue that while the BAA is low, the hits that DO come could all be HRs or extra base hits. If a pitcher has a high FB/GB ratio and a high ERA but a low BAA that generally means that the hits he IS giving up go far far away.


As you can see, any stat could be made to look meaningless, but they all factor into a decision. Strikeout pitchers generally are able to get more guys out and thus can reduce BAA, ERA, and possibly WHIP, but Ks are by far not the only factor in determening a winner (Daniel Cabrera, Javier Vazques, Josh Beckett aren't winning Cy Young's anytime soon).
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Postby rjforlife » Sun Aug 20, 2006 11:54 pm

im pretty sure im correct in assuming that the men voting for cy young are also facing all these arguments and dilemmas and will be when its time to vote, so to say its clear cut one way or the other is insane. as i see, this figures to be one of the more interesting, closest votes in some time and i would not say that either man is more or less deserving than the other.
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Postby nikku88 » Mon Aug 21, 2006 5:09 am

I'd vote for Santana fairly easily, but I thought he was a much more clear cut favourite last year. ;)

However, Halladay doesn't have to strikeout as many batters as some since he's such a ground ball pitcher. It's the same as using BAA. Groundball pitchers will almost always be slightly higher than flyball pitchers.
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Postby ukrneal » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:22 am

What an odd thread. I don't understand why it is so polarized considering: 1) Still over a month to play, 2) In which, it will probably be decided, and 3) Both are having a very good year.

I don't think anyone should be upset if either wins, but winning a playoff berth might be something to push Santana over the edge. Or a simply mind-boggling streak here at the end of the year will do it for either. Both are great pitchers and previous winners.
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