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Postby shortsavage » Sun Aug 20, 2006 1:12 am

rmande09 wrote:The thing is, you asked where he'll rank on the top 100 prospect lists in 2007 (i.e. Baseball America), and they do their rankings based on actual baseball ability, not fantasy. I have yet to look at the 2006 class much, but I can say almost definitively that Snider is my #2 hitting prospect in the class (Longoria) and 4th or 5th overall (Longoria-Miller-Lincecum-Kershaw-Snider) prospect in the draft. Looking at my current "top 50," I'd say there's a solid chance that Snider could end up right around 50-60 on my list. My list places much more emphasis on offensive potential for hitters (read that as I don't give two ****s about defense when ranking my prospects), and when it comes to pitching, I value the power guys who K people over contact guys who get groundballs). But BA and other publications value defense and stuff like that, and they also really enjoy hype and "predictions" of players prior to the draft. Snider didn't really have much hype and really didn't seem to have future big-time bat potential, and that'll certainly be taken into account with their rankings.


I can tell that you haven't looked at the 2006 draft class much.

This is the fantasy baseball cafe.

What is ****s? What are you talking about?

So, basically you're admitting that you're wrong?
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Postby rmande09 » Sun Aug 20, 2006 11:06 am

The ****s I am talking about is sh*ts. Since you can't swear on here, I figured I'd block it out and people would understand what was meant, at the very least based on the context on the sentence.

Now where did I admit I was "wrong?" I initially answered your question. You asked where Snider would end up on the 2007 prospect lists. I answered that question. I gave my opinion on where I thought he would end up on those prospect lists. Now, if you asked where he would end up on MY 2007 prospect list, that is entirely different. Completely different question. My prospect list is not the same (though it is similar) to what Baseball America's is. We have different guidelines, different opinions, and different expectations. If you asked where I would rank Snider, I would tell you what I told you in my last post: Unofficially between 50 and 60. But you did not ask that, did you? No.

My stance hasn't wavered one bit; I'm not sure what led you to think I was "admitting I was wrong." But that's quite OK, reading comprehension is CLEARLY not your strong suit.
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Postby rmande09 » Sun Aug 20, 2006 11:08 am

That's also clever that you said you can "tell" that I haven't looked at the draft class much. Oh, so are you inferring you know more about the class than I do? That's hysterical. When I said I haven't looked at the class much, I meant I haven't looked at the class much in terms of putting them into my rankings. When I do my monthly rankings, they do not include the draftees. I don't include draftees until my preseason rankings the following year. But I clearly know a helluva lot more about Travis Snider or Andrew Miller than you do. Good day.
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BN: Cuddyer, C. Ross, J. Montero

SP: Price, Gallardo, T. Hudson, Lester
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Postby shortsavage » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:16 pm

Back to the topic at hand...I think it's fair to say that Snider has been Billy Butler light, based on their first seasons in professional baseball. Both players were drafted out of high school at the age of 18 as the 14th overall pick of their respective drafts - Butler '04, Snider '06.

Butler: .373/.488/.596...w/ 10 HR, 22 doubles, and 57BB/63K (0.90) in 260 ab

Snider: .325/.412/.567...w/ 11 HR, 12 doubles, and 30BB/47K (0.64) in 194 ab so far
Last edited by shortsavage on Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby shortsavage » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:23 pm

Shoot, let's throw Jay Bruce (12th overall in 2005) into the mix, too. It should be noted that he played for the GCL Reds and in the Pioneer league - both teams are at the rookie level.

Bruce: .266/.341/.484...w/ 9 HR, 11 doubles, and 22BB/53K (0.42) in 192 ab


You have to go Butler (6'2'' 225) > Snider (5'11'' 245) > Bruce (6'3'' 195) as professional baseball rookie bats.
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Postby J35J » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:36 pm

shortsavage wrote:Shoot, let's throw Jay Bruce (12th overall in 2005) into the mix, too. It should be noted that he played for the GCL Reds and in the Pioneer league - both teams are at the rookie level.

Bruce: .266/.341/.484...w/ 9 HR, 11 doubles, and 22BB/53K (0.42) in 192 ab


You have to go Butler (6'2'' 225) > Snider (5'11'' 245) > Bruce (6'3'' 195) as professional baseball rookie bats.



The problem with that is that Bruce has since gone on to do awesome things this year, you can't just assume that Snider is going to follow suite and do just as well next year as Bruce has done this year, I'd say that isn't likely as Bruce has been unbelieveable. Butler>Bruce>Snider.

I like you Savage but you can't just take the new class of rookies and put them ahead of everyone before they have even seen anything above low A ball and the others your putting them ahead of are at a higher level doing better things. Next year, your going to put half of that class above Snider, Bruce, Butler, Maybin, etc just because they start off A- ball playing well? Just doesn't make sense!

Jason
Last edited by J35J on Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby rmande09 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:39 pm

Jason, that's what I've been attempting to say to SS all along, you just did a much better (and nicer) job of it. Two months in professional debuts really mean very little, especially for high schoolers. I'm sure there are tons and tons and tons of examples of high schoolers crushing the ball in their short season debut and then falling off the table, as is their tons of examples of high schoolers crapping the bed in their short season debut only to turn into great players.
C: Pierzynski
1B: Pujols
2B: Altuve
3B: Miggy
SS: HanRam
OF (x3): CarGo, M. Bourn, D. Jennings
UTIL (x2): E. Encarnacion, C. Hart
BN: Cuddyer, C. Ross, J. Montero

SP: Price, Gallardo, T. Hudson, Lester
RP: Chapman, Jansen, Rodney, Putz, Cishek, Bailey
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Postby shortsavage » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:48 pm

Yeah, I'm learning.

But notice that in the line you bolded, I was just comparing their first professional seasons. I did not say that Snider is currently a better prospect than Bruce.

It's clearly Butler > Bruce > Snider to me.
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Postby J35J » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:52 pm

shortsavage wrote:Yeah, I'm learning.

But notice that in the line you bolded, I was just comparing their first professional seasons. I did not say that Snider is currently a better prospect than Bruce.

It's clearly Butler > Bruce > Snider to me.


And this is all that really matters!

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Postby shortsavage » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:08 pm

J35J wrote:
shortsavage wrote:Yeah, I'm learning.

But notice that in the line you bolded, I was just comparing their first professional seasons. I did not say that Snider is currently a better prospect than Bruce.

It's clearly Butler > Bruce > Snider to me.


And this is all that really matters!

Jason


You have to be able to take into account what players were able to do at the same levels and same age. Otherwise, the older, more experienced guys always win out. And there are many cases when a less experienced player who is also younger and in a lower level is actually the better prospect.
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