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Travis Snider

Postby shortsavage » Fri Aug 18, 2006 7:19 pm

Jim Callis spoke very highly of Toronto 18-year-old Travis Snider today in a BA chat.

"Snider had the best high school bat in the 2006 draft and has a chance to be a star."

"Snider and (Billy) Butler have similar offensive profiles, but Snider is a better athlete with a better chance to be a competent defender."


I know Chris Parmelee, Matt Sulentic, and Bill Rowell have all been great high school bats who are already emerging as potential top 100 guys from the 2006 draft class. But it seems like Snider is making the biggest splash of any 2006 draft hitter not named Longoria.

Will he be a top 50 prospect on 2007 top 100 lists - if he isn't there already?
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Postby hybrid » Sat Aug 19, 2006 2:09 am

He is looking very good, however very few prospects just out of H.S. get ranked Top 50 with out playing anything out of short season ball. He needs to prove more against better competition next year to make a case for the Top 50.
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Postby rmande09 » Sat Aug 19, 2006 2:11 pm

hybrid's right. Take a look at last year - Upton and Maybin were rated in the top 50, along with McCutchen (number 50). All three were very, very hyped out of high school, so their top 50 ranking was not that surprising. Jay Bruce, on the other hand, was 70-something. Snider we'll probably be around 75-80, simply because he was no where near as hyped as any of the aforementioned guys. He could quite possibly wind up being the best hitter in this draft, though.
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BN: Cuddyer, C. Ross, J. Montero

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Postby shortsavage » Sat Aug 19, 2006 2:24 pm

So, Snider may be top 50 caliber, but he won't receive the hype to reach that status?

P.S. Isn't a big difference between Snider and Bruce that Snider is called the best high school bat from his class where as Bruce was more like the third-best?
Last edited by shortsavage on Sat Aug 19, 2006 2:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby shortsavage » Sat Aug 19, 2006 2:31 pm

P.S. P.S. Justin Upton and Cameron Maybin didn't play in any kind of professional baseball last season, while Andrew McCutchen played in rookie-ball and didn't do nearly as much with his bat as Snider - and had just 50 at bats in A-.

So, I respectfully disagree with you guys. I think Snider enters 2007 as at least a top 50 prospect. And on top of that, I'd rank him ahead of McCutchen - take that sample size sticklers!
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Postby rmande09 » Sat Aug 19, 2006 4:12 pm

Uhhh... Snider IS the best high school hitter in this class. This class was also considered very weak. Maybin was the second best hitter in last years HS class, yet he was considered a MUCH better hitter at the time of his respectful draft. Just because Bruce was the third best HS hitter last year doesn't mean that Snider is actually a better hitter than Bruce.

McCutchen was also considered better than Snider, reasonably better than Snider actually, at the time he was drafted. He performed very well in rookie ball in the GCL, and earned a promotion to A-ball where he hit even better. McCutchen can also play all OF spots and could very well become a CF - he's got great speed and a good arm - which projects his value that much more. The most impressive part of McCutchen's debut was 37:30 BB:K ratio in 210 ABs - he showed very good discipline, and his contact rate was ridiculous at above 85%. That is usually the biggest struggle for HS draftees, and he showed no problems. Plus, he's got a beautiful stroke with ridiculous bat speed, stays on the ball through the zone, and has great power potential, and at 6', it doesn't seem like his speed is going anywhere as he fills out a bit more.

Snider has been awesome. But, like I said, the hype surrounding him out of high school is no where near the hype that surrounded Upton, Maybin, McCutchen, and Bruce. This is a fact, undebateable. This will obviously affect his location on the prospect sheet - I'm not saying it SHOULD, but it will; you're not asking for my opinion. Snider has very good power potential, but he is not exactly athletic (He IS more athletic than Butler, but not by all that much, and that doesn't say much). Whether he can stick at a corner OF spot is questionable, he could very well become a 1B, which would detract from his value. He shows good patience with a BB:K of 30:47 in 192 ABs, but striking out 25% of the time is not impressive. This is typical of high school draftees, but "typical" doesn't get a kid ranked in the top 50. He's shown very good power, but the fact that it's the GCL takes away from that a bit, and the fact that he is facing weaker pitching will also take away from it. Add to the fact that he is a lefty with a slight uppercut swing, slightly above average bat speed, and a tendency to be a deadpull hitter, and it's going to be very tough to put him in the top 50 with just two months to base it off.
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Postby rmande09 » Sat Aug 19, 2006 4:19 pm

Oh, and there is zero chance Snider will be ranked ahead of McCutchen. He wasn't that impressive in the first half, but since then, McCutchen has really turned it up. He's raised his average nearly 30 points in the last few months, raised his OPS almost 80 points, and has shown significant power potential with 14 homers as a 19 year old in A+. Add to that the fact that he can run, and run very well (22 SBs at 76%), and with the fact that he continued to show good patience and a good contact rate (BB:K was 42:91 and an 80% contact rate), which, again, has considerably improved in the last few months, and you have what should be a top 40 prospect. The one reason he won't be mentioned with Upton and Maybin is because of "tools," and he won't be mentioned with Bruce because of the XBH.
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1B: Pujols
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3B: Miggy
SS: HanRam
OF (x3): CarGo, M. Bourn, D. Jennings
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Postby raiders_umpire » Sat Aug 19, 2006 5:43 pm

shortsavage wrote:So, Snider may be top 50 caliber, but he won't receive the hype to reach that status?

P.S. Isn't a big difference between Snider and Bruce that Snider is called the best high school bat from his class where as Bruce was more like the third-best?




The high school class offensively from 05 was much better then the class from 06. Sniders bat would have had him 5th or 6th in 05, where as he was the best in 06.
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Postby shortsavage » Sat Aug 19, 2006 8:31 pm

Points taken rmade09. You definately have a lot of knowledge.

I'm still raw at this whole prospect rating thing - you probably have more experience. But a lot of your opinions don't really mesh with my thoughts.

Keep in mind that I'm talking about prospects in terms of their fantasy value - this is the fantasy baseball cafe - not major league value.

There a a few guys who know a lot about prospects here, but I question how well they translate all the major league designed scouting reports they read into fantasy baseball information.

I think that's where we differ.
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Postby rmande09 » Sat Aug 19, 2006 10:21 pm

The thing is, you asked where he'll rank on the top 100 prospect lists in 2007 (i.e. Baseball America), and they do their rankings based on actual baseball ability, not fantasy. I have yet to look at the 2006 class much, but I can say almost definitively that Snider is my #2 hitting prospect in the class (Longoria) and 4th or 5th overall (Longoria-Miller-Lincecum-Kershaw-Snider) prospect in the draft. Looking at my current "top 50," I'd say there's a solid chance that Snider could end up right around 50-60 on my list. My list places much more emphasis on offensive potential for hitters (read that as I don't give two ****s about defense when ranking my prospects), and when it comes to pitching, I value the power guys who K people over contact guys who get groundballs). But BA and other publications value defense and stuff like that, and they also really enjoy hype and "predictions" of players prior to the draft. Snider didn't really have much hype and really didn't seem to have future big-time bat potential, and that'll certainly be taken into account with their rankings.
C: Pierzynski
1B: Pujols
2B: Altuve
3B: Miggy
SS: HanRam
OF (x3): CarGo, M. Bourn, D. Jennings
UTIL (x2): E. Encarnacion, C. Hart
BN: Cuddyer, C. Ross, J. Montero

SP: Price, Gallardo, T. Hudson, Lester
RP: Chapman, Jansen, Rodney, Putz, Cishek, Bailey
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