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My first top 100

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Postby shortsavage » Thu Sep 07, 2006 6:21 am

I just reread all the stuff you guys wrote to me about my list and compared what you voiced to what I have changed. As thanks for your help, here's an updated top 30 list. Feel free to critique the heck out of it because I want to be fairly in line with the gold and silver prospects.

1. Alex Gordon, 3B, KC
2. Delmon Young, OF, TB
3. Billy Butler, OF, KC
4. Phil Hughes, SP, NYY
5. Brandon Wood, SS/3B, LAA
6. Justin Upton, OF, ARI
7. Homer Bailey, SP, CIN
8. Fernando Martinez, OF, NYM
9. Andy LaRoche, 3B, LAD
10. Cameron Maybin, OF, DET
11. Scott Elbert, SP, LAD
12. Joey Votto, 1B, CIN
13. Chris Young, OF, ARI
14. Jose Tabata, OF, NYY
15. Jay Bruce, OF, CIN
16. Adam Miller, SP, CLE
17. Evan Longoria, 3B, TB
18. Yovani Gallardo, SP, MIL
19. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, ARI
20. Jason Hirsh, SP, HOU
21. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS
22. Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT
23. Andrew Miller, SP, DET
24. Daric Barton, 1B, OAK
25. Ryan Braun, 3B, MIL
26. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL
27. James Loney, 1B, LAD
28. Travis Snider, OF, TOR
29. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, BOS
30. Tim Lincecum, SP, SF
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Postby dis2233 » Thu Sep 07, 2006 4:06 pm

Great list. I'd like to thank you and everyone else who post on this site. It was my first season on this site. This year I took over a keeper league team that had very few prospects on it (apparently none of which were worth keeping based on posts on this site). Although I've done roto for many years I've never really bothered to know any prospects other than those who were supposed to be up in the pros to start at the beginning of each year. With everyone's help here I was able to claim or trade for the following prospects this year and based on everyone's list here, my team should do very well in the future. Thanks again

Cole Hammels
BJ Upton
Billy Butler
Phillip Hughes
Homer Bailey
Cameron Maybin
Chris Young
Adam Miller
Andrew Miller
Andy Marte
Joel Guzman
Mike Pelfrey
Anibal Sanchez
Carlos Quentin
Josh Johnson
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Postby joshheines » Thu Sep 07, 2006 4:39 pm

shortsavage wrote:I just reread all the stuff you guys wrote to me about my list and compared what you voiced to what I have changed. As thanks for your help, here's an updated top 30 list. Feel free to critique the heck out of it because I want to be fairly in line with the gold and silver prospects.

1. Alex Gordon, 3B, KC
2. Delmon Young, OF, TB
3. Billy Butler, OF, KC
4. Phil Hughes, SP, NYY
5. Brandon Wood, SS/3B, LAA
6. Justin Upton, OF, ARI
7. Homer Bailey, SP, CIN
8. Fernando Martinez, OF, NYM
9. Andy LaRoche, 3B, LAD
10. Cameron Maybin, OF, DET
11. Scott Elbert, SP, LAD
12. Joey Votto, 1B, CIN
13. Chris Young, OF, ARI
14. Jose Tabata, OF, NYY
15. Jay Bruce, OF, CIN
16. Adam Miller, SP, CLE
17. Evan Longoria, 3B, TB
18. Yovani Gallardo, SP, MIL
19. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, ARI
20. Jason Hirsh, SP, HOU
21. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS
22. Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT
23. Andrew Miller, SP, DET
24. Daric Barton, 1B, OAK
25. Ryan Braun, 3B, MIL
26. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL
27. James Loney, 1B, LAD
28. Travis Snider, OF, TOR
29. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, BOS
30. Tim Lincecum, SP, SF


From a fantasy perspective, Barton doesn't belong in the top 30 or 50, he might not even be a top 100 fantasy prospect. He's a former heralded catcher who moved off the position to 1B/DH. His power never developed. He'll be the Greek God of Walks at 1B with 20 HR pop. That's not top 30 material.

You place too much faith in A ball guys like Fernando Martinez, Jose Tabata and Jay Bruce. I'd even include Upton and Maybin in there. They have incredible ceilings, but it needs to be tempered. I find it odd that those young guys are on your list, but no Colby Rasmus.

Reid Brignac belongs in the top 20. Adam Lind should get consideration for the top 30. On no list considering fantasy value should Pedroia be ranked higher than Tulo. IMO Pedroia doesn't belong in the top 30 and Tulo is top 20. Felix Pie should get consideration for the top 30, same with I-Stew (Although I don't care much for either one right now). Josh Fields should make the top 30. I'd flip Homer and Hughes. Hunter Pence belongs in the top 25-30. The list is missing Mike Pelfrey and Lastings Milledge( i don't think he's exhausted rookie eligibility yet). No Nick Adenhart? What about headcase Elijah Dukes? He's easily a top 30 guy. No Humberto Sanchez?

So, for FBB, the OBP guys Pedroia, Ellsbury and Barton aren't top 30 prospects. Your young bucks are ranked way too high. Generally your pitchers are ranked way too high. I think Hughes and Bailey are probably top 5-10 prospects, but the other guys aren't close. Snider shouldn't get a sniff of the top 30.
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Postby shortsavage » Fri Sep 08, 2006 9:08 am

Thanks for the comments Josh ;-D . You made some good points.


1. I think it's tough to give up on a 21-year-old like Daric Barton's power. He didn't really have a large sample of at bats (147) this season, either. And adjusting to AAA at his age is tough (see Delmon Young).


2. I'm definitely a lot higher on the young group of "toolsy" outfielders in the lower levels of the minors than most people right now. I don't think a group of outfielders who are this talented shows up very often. Next year will be a big test for all of them. I think Upton, Martinez, Maybin, Tabata, and Bruce can all pass it.

Rasmus hasn't slugged as well as the rest of these guys. He is my #47 though.


3. Brignac is my #32. His K/BB ratio isn't good enough to crack my top 20 right now (111K/42BB this season).

Adam Lind almost made my top 30. His contact ratio and K/BB are a little too iffy for a top 30 guy for me right now.


4. You're right about Pedroia over Tulowitzki, that can't work. But I moved Pedroia back, not Tulowitzki forward. You'd think as a Big West baseball fan I'd be higher on him, but he doesn't do a ton for me.


5. Felix Pie is #36 for me. Ian Stewart is a ways from cracking my top 30.


6. Josh Fields does not come even close to making my top 30, and I will stand by that strongly. He made some big leaps forward this season, but he went from a D- to a C+ prospect in my eyes.


7. I don't think Pelfrey was dominant enough in AA, given his age, to make my top 30 just yet. He gave up a lot of hits and walked a lot of batters.

I thought Milledge was going to lose his rookie status prior to 2007 when I was making this list...yep he lost it on 9/6/06. He would have easily been in my top 20, though.


8. Maybe Adenhart is someone who pitches well to contact or someone still developing his stuff. He's in my top 50, but I don't know about top 30 just yet.


9. You're right about Dukes. I was bumping him down too much because of his season-ending suspension. He's just inside of my top 30 now, only bettered by Delmon Young and Evan Longoria in the D-Ray's system.


10. One of the knocks on Humberto Sanchez going into this year was his injury history; he has a reputation for owning poor mechanics. And he's hurt right now. Plus, his K/9 and WHIP weren't that great this season. He's not even close to my top 30 and I'd be anxious to here anyone try to justify him owning that kind of ranking.


11. Generally my pitchers are too high? You said Hughes and Bailey are ok for you, so that leaves six pitchers who you think are high enough to say that generally I have pitchers too high. Does that mean you think all six of those guys are too high? I feel like that's a small sample of data to turn into a generalization.


12. Oh yeah, I'm a big Travis Snider fan. I know that I'm higher on him than most people. He's the only high school bat from 2006 in my top 50.
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Postby joshheines » Fri Sep 08, 2006 10:39 am

Elbert is too high at 11. He's got a great K rate and great BAA against, but his BABIP is on the lucky side and expecting that to regress to the mean plus his walks at a clip of more than 5 walks per 9 and I'm going with Carlos Gonzalez and Chris Young over him. I'd take Tulo and Longoria and Dukes over him too.

Andrew Miller of the Tigers has no sample size. His ranking is based entirely on his body of work at college. It's too early to rank him that high.

Lincecum had a good season numbers wise, but he should have been dominating the leagues he was in. He was real old for the leagues and he was a dominating college pitcher beating up on kids fresh out of HS. His walk rate at that level is concerning, but its a very small sample size.

Adam Miller appears to be all the way back from his injury, but his numbers looked real good. I'd probably drop him only a few. He's ahead of Elbert in my book.

Gallardo looked real good this year and he's probably ranked about rihgt.

I'm not sure which of Pelfrey's your looking at, but his MiLB numbers look good. 95 IP and 77 hits and 33 walks. 1.16 WHIP .611 OPS against and he was a lot unlucky in the minors too his BABIP was nearly .320. Once it regresses to the mean his WHIP drops even further. The peripherals look nice with a 10.33 K/9 and 3ish K:BB. He gave up 3 walks per 9 which is a touch high, but controlable. His numbers were consistent between high A and AA. He's a definite top 30 and probably #3 behind Homer/Hughes.
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Postby shortsavage » Fri Sep 08, 2006 2:56 pm

Scott Elbert: I think Elbert has demonstrated that he has the stuff to be a frontline starter in the major leagues. Perhaps his batting average on balls put into play will even out next year, but he could learn to harness his stuff a little better and walk fewer batters, balancing his WHIP out.

Andrew Miller: I don't mind ranking the top college pitcher in his draft class in my top 30. I'd imagine that some major sources will have Andrew Miller higher than I do.

Tim Lincecum: Hardly any batters in A+ are fresh out of high school. In fact, even the top high school hitters from the 2005 draft (Upton, Maybin, and Bruce) were still in A this year. So, Lincecum was not feasting on young bucks.

27.2 innings with 48 strikeouts (15.60K/9) have already given a lot of people the feeling that the University of Washington pitcher was a great draft pick. I think it's hard not to call him one of the top 50 prospects in the game right now.

Adam Miller: Yeah, he and Elbert are pretty close for me, too.

Yovanni Gallardo: Gets my vote for minor league pitcher of the year. He led the minors in strikeouts with 188.

Mike Pelfrey: I still need to study BABIP more, but I've read where certain pitchers maintain a much higher rate than most pitchers throughout their careers. Not that I'm giving Pelfrey this label, I just don't think you can assume that every pitcher's BABIP should be around the same level.

This is where MLB Advanced Media's high speed camera system is going to be really cool. I cannot wait to see stats like average velocity off the bat of balls hit in play. This stat would trump BABIP for me. So, I guess I'm saying that I don't feel very comfortable weighing BABIP heavily right now.

I'm lower on Pelfrey than most, but there's no way in my mind that he is close to being the third best pitching prospect in the minors. Guys like Gallardo, Adam Miller, and Nick Adenhart all pitched nearly as well or better than Pelfrey at younger ages and the same or higher levels.

P.S. You are combining his St. Lucie (A+) numbers with his AA numbers. Weren't you just saying how Lincecum (22 years old) shredding up A+ didn't mean a lot to you? Pelfrey (22) racked up 23% of his numbers facing A+ hitters. If you just look at his AA and AAA numbers, he doesn't look as dominant (1.28 WHIP).


Thanks for all the input Josh. Your thoughts have definitely made my top 30 prospects more solid already ;-D.
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Postby Broncmet724 » Fri Sep 08, 2006 6:47 pm

I think Humber will be the better pro than will Pelfrey. Pelfrey should end up closing with the repetoire of pitches he has right now.
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Postby FantasyGURU802 » Sat Sep 09, 2006 7:05 pm

Broncmet724 wrote:I think Humber will be the better pro than will Pelfrey. Pelfrey should end up closing with the repetoire of pitches he has right now.


Humber has been called up (Was called up on September 5th)... But still not in Yahoo! That drives me crazy...
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