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Draft Strategy

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Postby johnsamo » Tue Aug 15, 2006 2:29 pm

Yeah, the whole "motivated seller" aspect kind of dillutes the idea... And collussion is "Bad trades", not "Not trading". It would be in my interest, and everyone elses interest to let this guy stew for a while and not be scoring in any other categories, because then, he'd be desperate to sell SSs....

Pllus, in a league that had any brains, they'd spot he was doing by the 2nd pick and there would be an early SS run... so he'll probably end up with just 2 geat SSs anyway.... and if it's an autodraft setup, who cares about a league like that anyway?
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Re: Draft Strategy

Postby schmidty » Tue Aug 15, 2006 4:30 pm

Philly_05 wrote:Okay my buddy an I are talking about draft ideas he came up with this idea I think it's just silly but he refuses to agree with me..


For now it's so silly, it doesn't seem worth arguing. But what you do is this ... next year, have him try out his strategy on a competitive league (that is, no free public Yahoo). Even better, place a side wager on how well he'll do. His results should speak more than any amount of debating now will.

Like others said, there are many holes in this. First, after you get past the top 10 pre-season fantasy ranked SSes, there are still many solid options. And lets assume his draft strategy works to perfection and he ends up with the top 10 SSes. Take the position of one of the other teams. You're stuck with a low-ranked starting SS. But so if every other team, so competitively its a wash. Except for that nut with a whole team of SSes -- and you'll crush him because ... well, all he has is SSes. Now this guy is trying to offer trades in which he gets top value for his SSes. You won't do it -- you'll just make your team weaker relative to every other team in the league.

And of course, the draft won't go according to plan if the other managers have half a brain. He might get Tejada in R1, maybe Young in R2. By then other teams will start taking guys like Reyes, Glaus, Jeter, and Rollins. So by R3 he might be down to taking H Ramirez or Furcal (at this point overdrafting to stick to the all-SS strategy). Teams without a SS yet will probably be split -- some will make a reach for a guy like Lugo, Hall, Guillen. Others will refuse to take the best value at another position, figuring they can worry about filling in at SS at the end of the draft or from the FA list. By the end of the draft, your buddy might have a few of the top SSes, but he won't have them all. And the other teams won't be in a condition where they're thinking "Oh my god! That sneaky genius has all the SSes! I better accept his Furcal for Big Papi trade offer so I'm not left without him!"

Anyway, I'd say stop arguing with him. Instead tell him to put up or shut up the next -- preferably in a money league. If he turns out to be right, we can all hail his genius. But I think its unlikely.
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Postby tianyi86 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 6:24 pm

Obviously your buddy has read up on some economics and game theory but he kinda went wrong. If SS is something a person in fantasy must have (think of basic necessities like water) then sure, other teams must give out an arm and a leg to get a SS. Problem is, a person can go through a whole fantasy season w/o a SS and still do well. Tell your friend to think of SS as an auxillary good (like a a plasma tv, its nice to have, but needed to survive, so you wont give our your first born child for this TV).

Better yet, turn his logic against him. If he drafts 10 SS, he would be short at other positions and he will be forced to trade Tejada for the likes of brad wilkerson.
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Postby teddy ballgame » Wed Aug 16, 2006 6:50 pm

The thing is, no one will need to trade for a SS, because everyone is in the same position where they don't have one. It would be a position like the catchers. No one is going to overpay to get an "elite" catcher, because everyone else is stuck with a crappy one too, so why bother?

I kind of did something like this once. I drafted 3 top SS, (Jeter, Tejada, and Nomar) one year thinking now people will need a SS and overpay me. Didn't happen. I could play them all anyways because of IF and Util spots, but there wasn't a demand for my SS. I did wind up trading 2 of them, but it didn't happen like I, or your friend was expecting.
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Postby rainman23 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 7:02 pm

Even if he was right...that people would really feel this intense need for a good shortstop...he's still the one who's trading from a position of weakness. He's got a whole roster of guys he can't play! I'd feel like I was doing this guy a favor dealing anybody for one of these guys. I sure wouldn't compound the favor by giving him excess value.

It's surreal. At least if somebody was doing the "all pitchers" strategy, they could count on dominating some categories while they waited for the offers to roll in. He finishes last in EVERYTHING. His season is going to die on the vine while the other 9 managers' seasons pretty much carry on his usual.

But, don't get me wrong. It's a hell of an ideal...
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Postby mikekim2121 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 8:53 pm

BitterDodgerFan wrote:sorry but ur friend is a dumbass

;-D
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