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Please help with who I should start this week.

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Please help with who I should start this week.

Postby Scoot » Sun Sep 07, 2003 12:50 am

I made the playoffs in my H2H 12 team league. I was the second seed so this past week was a bye. Lineups are a weekly thing so the # of starts your pitcher has can be critical to success. Unfortunately it looks like I will be playing a team that has 9 starts compared to my 6 or 8 maximum. :-o I need some advice here is my scoring

W=10
L=-5
inning=1
K=1
Walk=-1
ER=-1
Save=3

My pitching options are
Prior vs Cin
Webb vs LA
Miller vs STL
Morris @Hou
Redding @MIL, vsSTL-This is one of only two pitchers that have double starts next week
Washburn @SEA, @OAK-And this is the other, but I dont like the matchup so it does not look like a wise move to start him
Radke-@CHW (or it maybe @CLE-CBS is not showing starts right now for some reason)
Garland vs MIN
and I have Smoltz-on the DL :-P

He has this as his starting pitching and I am sure he will not change it-b/c he told me
Zito vs TOR
Contreas @TB, @DET
M Batista vs LA, vs COL
Lowe @BAL, vs CHW
Sabathia @KC, MIN


I will start Prior, Morris, Webb, Miller, and then it is a toss up I am thinking of going with Redding. I need some insightful advice.

Thanks
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Postby jdh » Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:02 am

Prior vs Cin
Webb vs LA
Miller vs STL
Morris @Hou
Redding @MIL, vsSTL-This is one of only two pitchers that have double starts next week
Washburn @SEA, @OAK-And this is the other, but I dont like the matchup so it does not look like a wise move to start him
Radke-@CHW (or it maybe @CLE-CBS is not showing starts right now for some reason)
Garland vs MIN


At least according to projected starts, here's how your starts lineup:

Mon:
Tues: Redding @ Mil
Wed: Webb vs LA, Washburn @ OAK (no 2 starts), Garland vs Min
Thur: Radke @CWS
Fri: Prior vs Cin, Miller vs STL
Sat: Morris @Hou
Sun: Redding @STL

Since you don't have any starters until Tuesday, here is what I'd do. First, on Tuesday I would take the risk of using Redding in Milwaukee. There's a decent chance at a win and Jimmy Williams is very trigger happy with yanking pitchers before they get lit, so it's fairly low risk.

On Wednesday, I would start Webb for sure. He's going against a very weak offense so should at the least give you quality ERA and WHIP, and he's facing Ishii who is struggling. I would also roll the dice on Washburn. He's pitching much better the last month or so, is in a pitcher's park, and Oakland is a below average offense. I would bench Garland because he's just too inconsistent and is facing a Twins team in a tough division race and you just never know how he'll respond.

By the end of Wed., you should have a better idea of how the pitching week is going and where you and your opponent stand in ERA. If you are leading in ERA or are close, bench Radke for sure. If the earlier starts went badly and winning ERA and WHIP look out of reach, start Radke Thursday hoping for the win and maybe some miraculous ERA/WHIP help.

On Friday, start Prior no matter what; he's a total no brainer start against a weak depleted offense. Only start Miller against the Cards if the same situation with Radke I described above applies. He's hot lately but this could get ugly.

The same applies with Morris and Redding on Sat and Sun. They are both high risk starts, in hitters ballparks against very strong offenses. They are worth the risk if you need the win or Ks to win the week, but if you need to protect ERA and WHIP, bench.
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Postby jdh » Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:06 am

Of course, this advice assumes you can change your lineup daily. If you have to set your pitchers in this weekend before the week starts, it requires a different strategy.

If that's the case, with your opponent having several more starts than you that week, your chances of winning wins and Ks are minimal even if you start everyone. Therefore, you want to make sure you have a great chance of winning ERA and WHIP, unless his pitchers all throw shutouts.

In that situation, I would start Webb and Prior and bench everyone else. All of the other starts (even Morris and Miller) carry moderate to high risk.
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Postby Scoot » Sun Sep 07, 2003 10:10 am

Thanks GM jdh!
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