Schmidt and Loaza

[GSes]

There have been a lot of anti Loaza posts. But what about Jason Schmidt. How can u not give iy up to this guy? Next year Schmidt and Prior are my fantasy 1 and 2. All u people who say oh he was never good in his career before this year. Um DUH, and now he is good. Gosh you can't just go by what guys did in the past. This is what happens in sports some players are good right away (Prior, Vick) and some take many years to step it up (Schmidt, Loaiza, RICH GANNON.

You see my point ok football isnt baseball but still Rich Ganoon was a journeyman until he came to oakland then he became a the MVP at 38. Jeff Garcia is 33 and it took him many years to get to where he is. Even Barry Bonds didn't completly explode into what he is today until just a few years back. But okay Bonds is special. My point is there are so many guys in all sports that dont become superstars until later in their careers.

Give it ip to Schmidt and Loazia and why the hell wouldnt u draft them as top 10 SP next year.

[jdh]

No, you can't necessarily ignore someone because they have a great year and have never done anything comparable in their career. However, a guy like Schmidt and especially Loaiza is going to be a much higher risk to draft next year, than a pitcher that has been consistently good for a number of years (like Schilling, Hudson, Mulder, Mussina, etc).

You just never really know which one is a one year wonder and which one is having a legitimate breakout. For example, look at Derek Lowe. After his 20 win, sub 3.00 ERA, sub 1.00 WHIP season last year, people were drafting him in the second and third round this year in most drafts that I was in or mock drafts I saw. He hasn't been a complete bust, but has been a back of the rotation starter at best. A few years ago, Jose Lima came out of nowhere to win 20 games and then fell totally apart the next year.

Loaiza I think is a higher risk than Schmidt by far, because Schmidt has at least worked somewhat up to this point, while Loaiza came out of nowhere. Schmidt I still think will be a top 20 pitcher next year, but just won't be a Cy Young candidate. The thing I worry about with him is his excessive workload, and past history of serious arm problems.

I'm not saying you shouldn't draft these guys or that I wouldn't draft them next year, but usually people will overvalue pitchers coming off great seasons and draft them way too high. I wouldn't draft Schmidt before the 5th round, or Loaiza before the 8th round, because the risk is so high and because there are much safer picks that are better values than taking a huge risk on a possible one year wonder.

[GSes]

agreed that Loazia is a bigger risk then Schmidt as Schmudt has been improving since he got to SF and now when u watch him he just plain nasty where as loaza came out of nowwhere

[Super GM]

I'll be watching Esteban really closely during the offseason and throug spring training. If he looks like he's lost something I'm gonna stay away from him next year. But I'm hoping for him that this year wasn't a fluke. Schmidt is the safer bet to do well next year too. The main reason is because he's pitching at Pac Bell.

[demoflauchy]

I like Schmidt, he's impressive. I'd much rather have him than Loaiza next year. Doubtful Schmidt will win the Cy with Gagne as good as he's been, but if Gagne falters, yes he'll be next in line for the Cy.

[Madison]

Give it ip to Schmidt and Loazia and why the hell wouldnt u draft them as top 10 SP next year.

Schmidt is having a very nice season and I'd be looking at him around the 3rd-4th rounds.

Loaiza is on my do-not-draft list for next year. I'm predicting that there's no way he finishes next season with an era under 4. I've done all the reading, research, and study on him this year and I just don't see him doing this again.

I will say that Loaiza has had a very good season and I give him a "hat's off" for such a good job. I also admit that he proved me wrong when I was saying in May to trade him while you could.