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OPS is nothing but BS

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Re: OPS is nothing but BS

Postby Field » Fri Aug 11, 2006 8:02 pm

joshheines wrote:So, I'm sitting here thinking, man, OPS is a BS statistic that has become popular because it's A) simple and B) get's you to magical numbers like 1.00. However, the stat is wholly fallacious, faulty and inaccurate. It's a statistic that attempts to represent a player's overall batting ability; however, OPS rewards those players with gaudy batting averages and hurts those players with pedestrian or below average batting averages. OPS represents a player AVG twice. It gets factored once in OBP and then again in SLG.

In my mind, it's more accurate to take the base OBP and add in (SLG-AVG[isolated power]). This is the true mark of OPS. The present OPS stat inflates guys like Pujols, Manny, Berkman and Dye and deflates guys like Giambi, Dunn and Glaus. For purposes of real baseball don't we want to know how many total bases and player has created? Then why do we count all hits twice? Doesn't make sense.

Under the present OPS system Giambi is ranked 9th, Dunn is 19th and Glaus is 27th. Under my proposed (to no one except the cafe) OPS, Giambi ranks 3rd, Dunn is 11th and Glaus is 13th.

Conversely, those benefitting from the present OPS are Miguel Cabrera(11th), Joe Mauer(14th), Chase Utley(18th) and Nomar(23rd). Under my system Cabrera ranks 18th, Mauer's 34th, Utley is 31st, and Nomar ranks 35th. Mauer's drop is indicative of what is wrong with the present system.

Any thoughts?



I fail to see how OPS counts a players average twice.

OPS = OBP + SLG

You can be 0 for the season and still have an OBP.

:-?

Am I wrong on this?, because I just don't see how its counted twice.
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Postby Laean » Fri Aug 11, 2006 8:47 pm

my complaint with ops is how it undervalues speed guys.

guys like furcal, pierre, reyes usually have between .650 to .800 ops. however, i would think they are worth more than guys like overbay and matsui, who are around .850-.890 ops.

i mean, giambi has an ops of 1.000 and obp of over .400, while reyes has ops of .800 and obp of .300-.350, but reyes is much more likely to score than giambi because of his speed.

i think a stolen base should count in total bases, and it should factor in slugging percentage as well.

if giambi hits a double, and reyes hits a single and successfully steals a base, isn't it the same thing? what if giambi doubles, and reyes successfully singles then steals both 2nd and 3rd? should he still have lower TB/SLG%?

as for counting avg twice, i never really noticed it before. i mean, a guy like ichiro who'll have a .340 avg still only has .850 ops max, while dunn always has at least around .900+ ops.

still, whatever problems ops might have, it's still better than avg and obp in my opinion. i don't think ops needs to be completely thrown out the window, just modified.
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Postby Tavish » Fri Aug 11, 2006 9:10 pm

i think a stolen base should count in total bases, and it should factor in slugging percentage as well.

if giambi hits a double, and reyes hits a single and successfully steals a base, isn't it the same thing? what if giambi doubles, and reyes successfully singles then steals both 2nd and 3rd? should he still have lower TB/SLG%?


It counts the same in some situations, but not all. For all of Reyes' speed he scores at a rate just barely over Giambi's (18% vs 17%). When you add in Giambi's overwhelming advantage at driving runners in you get the difference in run producing that is shown in OPS.
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Postby DK » Fri Aug 11, 2006 9:15 pm

Tavish wrote:
i think a stolen base should count in total bases, and it should factor in slugging percentage as well.

if giambi hits a double, and reyes hits a single and successfully steals a base, isn't it the same thing? what if giambi doubles, and reyes successfully singles then steals both 2nd and 3rd? should he still have lower TB/SLG%?


It counts the same in some situations, but not all. For all of Reyes' speed he scores at a rate just barely over Giambi's (18% vs 17%). When you add in Giambi's overwhelming advantage at driving runners in you get the difference in run producing that is shown in OPS.


I agree with you but if Giambi and Reyes played on the same offense Reyes's % of scoring would be much higher than Giambi's, IMO.
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Postby Tavish » Fri Aug 11, 2006 9:39 pm

DK wrote:
Tavish wrote:
i think a stolen base should count in total bases, and it should factor in slugging percentage as well.

if giambi hits a double, and reyes hits a single and successfully steals a base, isn't it the same thing? what if giambi doubles, and reyes successfully singles then steals both 2nd and 3rd? should he still have lower TB/SLG%?


It counts the same in some situations, but not all. For all of Reyes' speed he scores at a rate just barely over Giambi's (18% vs 17%). When you add in Giambi's overwhelming advantage at driving runners in you get the difference in run producing that is shown in OPS.


I agree with you but if Giambi and Reyes played on the same offense Reyes's % of scoring would be much higher than Giambi's, IMO.


You think Reyes would be better off with ARod, Posada, Bernie Williams, and Melky Cabrera batting behind him than with LoDuca, Beltran, Delgado, and Wright? You should have turn in your Mets fan card now. The Mets only score about 0.10 less runs a game with a pitcher in the #9 hole.
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Re: OPS is nothing but BS

Postby Matthias » Fri Aug 11, 2006 9:41 pm

Field wrote:I fail to see how OPS counts a players average twice.

OPS = OBP + SLG

You can be 0 for the season and still have an OBP.

:-?

Am I wrong on this?, because I just don't see how its counted twice.


Because SLG = Total Bases / At Bats
OPS = Hits + Walks / At Bats

Every time you get a hit it goes into Total Bases in SLG and Hits in OPS. That's how it's double-counted. Whereas Isolated Slugging = SLG - BA.

So if you go 3-for-10 with 3 singles, your OBP = .300 & your SLG = .300 so your OPS = 0.600. But it's basically just your batting average doubled.
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Re: OPS is nothing but BS

Postby davidmarver » Fri Aug 11, 2006 10:16 pm

Matthias wrote:
Field wrote:I fail to see how OPS counts a players average twice.

OPS = OBP + SLG

You can be 0 for the season and still have an OBP.

:-?

Am I wrong on this?, because I just don't see how its counted twice.


Because SLG = Total Bases / At Bats
OPS = Hits + Walks / At Bats

Every time you get a hit it goes into Total Bases in SLG and Hits in OPS. That's how it's double-counted. Whereas Isolated Slugging = SLG - BA.

So if you go 3-for-10 with 3 singles, your OBP = .300 & your SLG = .300 so your OPS = 0.600. But it's basically just your batting average doubled.

You're missing the point of HOOTIE's post.

A hit moves a runner over while a walk does not.

OBP takes into account those walks, plus the number of times you moved runners over (if runners were on).

SLG takes into account how many bases you moved yourself.

Add those two and you have how many bases you've progressed all season. It's a pretty reliable statistic.
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Postby Laean » Sat Aug 12, 2006 12:14 am

Tavish wrote:
i think a stolen base should count in total bases, and it should factor in slugging percentage as well.

if giambi hits a double, and reyes hits a single and successfully steals a base, isn't it the same thing? what if giambi doubles, and reyes successfully singles then steals both 2nd and 3rd? should he still have lower TB/SLG%?


It counts the same in some situations, but not all. For all of Reyes' speed he scores at a rate just barely over Giambi's (18% vs 17%). When you add in Giambi's overwhelming advantage at driving runners in you get the difference in run producing that is shown in OPS.


but a difference in OPS of around .300? (on average, depending on the leadoff and the slugger.) wouldn't counting SBs in SLG% make it more accurate? i have no problem with giambi's OPS being higher in the end due to the difference in driving in runs, but it seems like under the current OPS leadoff hitters are valued TOO little.

i would imagine if SBs are counted in TBs and SLG%, the OPS would be a lot closer, but still lower for leadoff hitters, except for the top top ones who could end up with higher ops than sluggers (i.e. damon in his 123 RUN 20 HR 94 RBI 19 SB .857 OPS 2004 year, crawford in his 101 RUN 15 HR 81 RBI 46 SB .800 OPS 2005 year, etc). which is fine. i think damon and crawford in those years were certainly worth more than a slugger like dunn (105 46 102 6 .956 in 2004 and 107 40 101 4 .927 in 2005) or something.

it's not perfect, but just better than the current definition of OPS.
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Postby Ender » Sat Aug 12, 2006 12:38 am

OPS is a superior version of avg and SLg and OBP. Its far from perfect. Pitchers are still generally rated by ERA which is the worst stat ever created so if you want to complain about a crappy stat complain about that one.
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Postby mamorris » Sat Aug 12, 2006 12:56 am

Laean wrote:
Tavish wrote:
i think a stolen base should count in total bases, and it should factor in slugging percentage as well.

if giambi hits a double, and reyes hits a single and successfully steals a base, isn't it the same thing? what if giambi doubles, and reyes successfully singles then steals both 2nd and 3rd? should he still have lower TB/SLG%?


It counts the same in some situations, but not all. For all of Reyes' speed he scores at a rate just barely over Giambi's (18% vs 17%). When you add in Giambi's overwhelming advantage at driving runners in you get the difference in run producing that is shown in OPS.


but a difference in OPS of around .300? (on average, depending on the leadoff and the slugger.) wouldn't counting SBs in SLG% make it more accurate? i have no problem with giambi's OPS being higher in the end due to the difference in driving in runs, but it seems like under the current OPS leadoff hitters are valued TOO little.


It would only be more accurate if you take into account caught stealing and pickoffs as well. Every time a player gets caught stealing you'll need to somehow subtract from their OBP and SLG. Needless to say it quickly gets very messy and the whole advantage of OPS as a quick-and-dirty stat is eliminated.
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