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OPS is nothing but BS

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OPS is nothing but BS

Postby joshheines » Fri Aug 11, 2006 9:18 am

So, I'm sitting here thinking, man, OPS is a BS statistic that has become popular because it's A) simple and B) get's you to magical numbers like 1.00. However, the stat is wholly fallacious, faulty and inaccurate. It's a statistic that attempts to represent a player's overall batting ability; however, OPS rewards those players with gaudy batting averages and hurts those players with pedestrian or below average batting averages. OPS represents a player AVG twice. It gets factored once in OBP and then again in SLG.

In my mind, it's more accurate to take the base OBP and add in (SLG-AVG[isolated power]). This is the true mark of OPS. The present OPS stat inflates guys like Pujols, Manny, Berkman and Dye and deflates guys like Giambi, Dunn and Glaus. For purposes of real baseball don't we want to know how many total bases and player has created? Then why do we count all hits twice? Doesn't make sense.

Under the present OPS system Giambi is ranked 9th, Dunn is 19th and Glaus is 27th. Under my proposed (to no one except the cafe) OPS, Giambi ranks 3rd, Dunn is 11th and Glaus is 13th.

Conversely, those benefitting from the present OPS are Miguel Cabrera(11th), Joe Mauer(14th), Chase Utley(18th) and Nomar(23rd). Under my system Cabrera ranks 18th, Mauer's 34th, Utley is 31st, and Nomar ranks 35th. Mauer's drop is indicative of what is wrong with the present system.

Any thoughts?
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Postby swyck » Fri Aug 11, 2006 9:39 am

OPS is quick and dirty, its easy and its fun. :-B I like it. ;-D

Average is counted twice, but as such it mostly cancels itself out. If Giambi moves up to #3 and Dunn #11, that right there is an indication that all is not right with your system.

And there is a whole additional calculation to be done! My mind is tired already. :*)

Can you present a list of top30 side by side using ops and using isolated power? That would be good for comparison.
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Postby Chicago RedSox » Fri Aug 11, 2006 9:42 am

I think the theory behind your proposition sounds pretty good. We might need to see a top 25 ranking of current OPS and Proposed New OPS in order to get a better feel for it.
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Postby joshheines » Fri Aug 11, 2006 9:53 am

Here's my proposed OPS top 40 along with their new OPS:

1 Albert Pujols 0.785
2 Travis Hafner 0.755
3 Jason Giambi 0.75
4 Manny Ramirez 0.745
5 Jim Thome 0.743
6 David Ortiz 0.737
7 Carlos Beltran 0.726
8 Lance Berkman 0.724
9 Ryan Howard 0.707
10 Jermaine Dye 0.702
11 Adam Dunn 0.682
12 Alfonso Soriano 0.678
13 Troy Glaus 0.661
14 Nick Johnson 0.657
15 Vernon Wells 0.655
16 Justin Morneau 0.652
17 Chipper Jones 0.651
18 Miguel Cabrera 0.648
19 Morgan Ensberg 0.648
20 Jason Bay 0.647
21 Paul Konerko 0.637
22 Frank Thomas 0.635
23 Pat Burrell 0.629
24 David Wright 0.626
25 Scott Rolen 0.621
26 Bill Hall 0.619
27 Brad Hawpe 0.616
28 Adam LaRoche 0.614
29 Carlos Delgado 0.614
30 Aramis Ramirez 0.613
31 Chase Utley 0.613
32 Andruw Jones 0.609
33 Matt Holliday 0.609
34 Joe Mauer 0.608
35 Nomar Garciaparra 0.608
36 Grady Sizemore 0.607
37 Ray Durham 0.603
38 Scott Hatteberg 0.602
39 Carlos Lee 0.598
40 Alex Rodriguez 0.597

Here's the current OPS with numbers.

1 Albert Pujols 1.106
2 Manny Ramirez 1.069
3 Travis Hafner 1.055
4 Lance Berkman 1.045
5 Jim Thome 1.04
6 Jermaine Dye 1.025
7 David Ortiz 1.025
8 Carlos Beltran 1.01
9 Jason Giambi 1.003
10 Ryan Howard 1
11 Miguel Cabrera 0.984
12 Chipper Jones 0.984
13 Vernon Wells 0.977
14 Joe Mauer 0.973
15 Justin Morneau 0.971
16 Alfonso Soriano 0.971
17 Nick Johnson 0.951
18 Chase Utley 0.94
19 Adam Dunn 0.94
20 David Wright 0.94
21 Paul Konerko 0.939
22 Scott Rolen 0.939
23 Nomar Garciaparra 0.939
24 Jason Bay 0.933
25 Scott Hatteberg 0.932
26 Matt Holliday 0.929
27 Troy Glaus 0.926
28 Brad Hawpe 0.922
29 Mark DeRosa 0.907
30 Grady Sizemore 0.907
31 Derek Jeter 0.905
32 Joe Crede 0.897
33 Carlos Guillen 0.897
34 Frank Thomas 0.896
35 Vladimir Guerrero 0.895
36 Miguel Tejada 0.894
37 Carlos Lee 0.893
38 Garrett Atkins 0.892
39 Aramis Ramirez 0.891
40 Bill Hall 0.89
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Postby J35J » Fri Aug 11, 2006 10:08 am

I like it ;-D I'll probably use both when messing with rankings/predictions/projections. Nice job!


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Postby UncleIvan » Fri Aug 11, 2006 10:40 am

I like it too. Your new list looks like a who's who of baseball studs.

I've been thinking the same thing: OPS factors avg twice
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Fri Aug 11, 2006 10:50 am

OPS is like any other stat usefull but not perfect. IMO OBP is much more important than SLG or isolated power so I don't think they should be given equal value.
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Postby noseeum » Fri Aug 11, 2006 10:53 am

Pogotheostrich wrote:OPS is like any other stat usefull but not perfect. IMO OBP is much more important than SLG or isolated power so I don't think they should be given equal value.


It's a fact. OBP contributes more to run production than slugging. That's always been the problem with OPS.

That why joshheines formula might be better because it increases the contribution of OBP.
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Postby mamorris » Fri Aug 11, 2006 11:39 am

Some saber guys can probably respond to this better than me, but there are two main components to producing runs: the on-base factor and the advancement factor. When you hit a single, not only do you get yourself on base, but you move any runners over as well. That's why you "count all hits twice". There isn't any advancement factor to speak of when you take a walk. OPS isn't perfect, but it's somewhat decent because it takes both the on-base and advancement factors into account. I think your stat is flawed because it appears to value a walk is just as much as a single, which isn't the case.
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Postby rainman23 » Fri Aug 11, 2006 12:02 pm

OPS is a joke. I've never understood how it gained such popularity. I hope the big sabremetrics guys do not endorse it in any fashion. You're adding two numbers with completely different denominators, for God's sake! It's got no conceptual meaning. You can't tell a thing about a player by looking at his isolated OPS other than, perhaps, that he's pretty good, or he sucks. If you've got a great OPS, what are you good at? Getting on base? Piling up the bases? Beats me. And everyone else. You don't know. You're good at something, but we don't know what. It's not true at all that it's like any other stat. It's like NO other stat that I've seen. It tells no story. It's a sham.
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