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Best 2003 players who will stink in 2004

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Postby Dice » Fri Sep 05, 2003 10:38 pm

I love their production this year, but if Preston Wilson or Jay Payton are not in Colorado next year, they go from #1 and #2 outfielder status to #3 and #4 OF types immediately.

Aaron Boone was overrated anyway, but Yankees stadium does not fit his swing. People will draft him too high off last year's numbers. He should cut down on the swing, sacrifice a few homers to get on base more, strike out less, hit more to right field and run.

This list should be named after Esteban Loaiza.

Russ Ortiz is a good pitcher, but the 20+ wins he'll get this year shouldn't fool anyone. His walk rate is staggering.

Kevin Brown cannot be counted on to stay healthy.

Based on what happened this year, I'd say every closer in baseball. It's too unpredictable. Stoopid Robb Nen and Trevor Hoffman cost me a chance at first in my points league.
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Postby pkarr5000 » Fri Sep 05, 2003 10:47 pm

perival should be a bust
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Postby Madison » Fri Sep 05, 2003 11:21 pm

Dice wrote:Stoopid Robb Nen and Trevor Hoffman cost me a chance at first in my points league.


Hmmm....Not sure when your draft was, but for my drafts, I knew ahead of time that Hoffman and Nen probably would not pitch this year. :-?
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Postby HOOTIE » Fri Sep 05, 2003 11:46 pm

Veterans who suddenly look good, certaintly are risky. Mora, Redman, Loaiza fit this criteria.
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Postby Guest » Fri Sep 05, 2003 11:50 pm

Dice wrote:Russ Ortiz is a good pitcher, but the 20+ wins he'll get this year shouldn't fool anyone. His walk rate is staggering.

Based on what happened this year, I'd say every closer in baseball. It's too unpredictable. Stoopid Robb Nen and Trevor Hoffman cost me a chance at first in my points league.


Good call on Ortiz. As for Nen and Hoffman, when did you have your draft? It was well known early that they would miss major time if not the season.
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Postby R-Tehst » Sat Sep 06, 2003 12:27 am

damn, everyone here seems to sh*t on Loaiza. If hitters couldn't figure him out all of this year, why would they next year. It's not like he's getting lucky. If you've seen him pitch, you can see that he's fooling the hitters.

Anyway, my bust is Alfonso Soriano. He sould be a lock for 20 homers and 20 steals at least, but since the end April his production has gone down the drain. And I'm definitely avoiding him in points leagues.
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Postby Madison » Sat Sep 06, 2003 12:51 am

R-Tehst wrote:damn, everyone here seems to sh*t on Loaiza. If hitters couldn't figure him out all of this year, why would they next year. It's not like he's getting lucky. If you've seen him pitch, you can see that he's fooling the hitters.


I've watched him pitch many games this year because my Rangers were stuck with him for a few years and I wanted to find out what on Earth made a 4.80 career era pitcher turn it around like this. I still don't think he will post an era under 4 next year. Sure, he's got a cut fastball now, but the rest of his pitches are still the same as they always have been.

I give him his props for this year. He is very worthy of getting the Cy Young and right now, I'd give it to him. One heck of a year for Loaiza. ;-D

I just wouldn't bet on it to continue next year.
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Postby Dice » Sat Sep 06, 2003 12:52 am

I didn't draft the guys, but Nen and Hoffman were my early season attempts to fill the hole in my bullpen relatively cheaply. After the draft, my bullpen consisted of Braden Looper, J.C. Romero, and nothing else. If either of them panned out, I wouldn't have had to spend the first 2/3 of the season liquidating assets in a desperate attempt to get closers. The list of guys I threw at the hole is long and distinguished. Every schmoe from Brandon Villafuerte to Armando Benitez. So that's why I'm ending up in 3rd or 4th rather than 1st or 2nd. The point is, closers are overrated because managers have shorter attention spans than we do.
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Postby Madison » Sat Sep 06, 2003 12:56 am

Dice wrote:I didn't draft the guys, but Nen and Hoffman were my early season attempts to fill the hole in my bullpen relatively cheaply. After the draft, my bullpen consisted of Braden Looper, J.C. Romero, and nothing else. If either of them panned out, I wouldn't have had to spend the first 2/3 of the season liquidating assets in a desperate attempt to get closers. The list of guys I threw at the hole is long and distinguished. Every schmoe from Brandon Villafuerte to Armando Benitez. So that's why I'm ending up in 3rd or 4th rather than 1st or 2nd. The point is, closers are overrated because managers have shorter attention spans than we do.


Ouch. Bad draft on your part, only 1 closer? Hopefully next year the draft goes better for you. ;-D I'm sure we will have many draft strategy suggestions posted here and we will also be running mock drafts to get people ready for the real thing.
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Postby wrveres » Sat Sep 06, 2003 3:20 am

Lofunzo wrote:
jdh wrote:I've seen him on TV several times. The problem I have with him is that he has never won more than 13 games before this season, has a history of serious arm problems, and if this is a breakout season, he's doing it at a very late age. Maybe he is a late bloomer like Schilling, but I would bet against it. I think he'll either spend signifigant time on the DL or have a major drop off next season. I just don't trust him.


He was either a back of the rotation guy on Atlanta or on a terrible Pirates team. Not much chance for victories there. With the Giants, he is just coming into his own the past 2 years (including this 1). I have also never seen him bring the gas like he has these past 2 years. I say put him on your TO DRAFT list. ;-D

jdh.......I respect the way that you acquire and analyze numbers but in this instance, the numbers DO lie.


Yes but there was also a reason he was a back of the rotation guy ..

No love for Loretta? No way he repeats anything like this season. One year wonder. IMO :-)
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