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Why don't they count HBP as a walk?

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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Aug 09, 2006 5:30 pm

Big Pimpin wrote:Right, but couldn't a sac fly be construed the same way? It's a strategy to get a runner home, right? Heck, if you've ever seen a guy strike out with one out and a guy on third you realize it's not a given to just a hit a fly ball to the OF in that situation...

That's all I'm saying...


1. It's not a strategy primarily dictated by a third party, the manager.

2. While we can pretty clearly tell when a sacrifice bunt is attempted, is there any valid way to tell when a player attempted to hit a sacrifice fly and when he tried to get a hit to drive the runner in?
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Postby Splendid61 » Wed Aug 09, 2006 6:40 pm

I would like to see fielder's choices, reaching via an error, and reaching on a wild pitch strikeout included in OBP. The way it's measured now, on-base percentage is a measure of getting on base on your own merit, not purely getting on base.
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Postby Big Pimpin » Wed Aug 09, 2006 7:02 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Big Pimpin wrote:Right, but couldn't a sac fly be construed the same way? It's a strategy to get a runner home, right? Heck, if you've ever seen a guy strike out with one out and a guy on third you realize it's not a given to just a hit a fly ball to the OF in that situation...

That's all I'm saying...


1. It's not a strategy primarily dictated by a third party, the manager.

2. While we can pretty clearly tell when a sacrifice bunt is attempted, is there any valid way to tell when a player attempted to hit a sacrifice fly and when he tried to get a hit to drive the runner in?


Yeah I guess those are good points. Good call GTWMA. ;-D

Splendid61 wrote:I would like to see fielder's choices, reaching via an error, and reaching on a wild pitch strikeout included in OBP. The way it's measured now, on-base percentage is a measure of getting on base on your own merit, not purely getting on base.


It seems to me that OBP should be based on getting on base on your own merit. I fail to see why a batter should be rewarded statistically for making an "out" unless it benefits the team.
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Postby buffalobillsrul2002 » Wed Aug 09, 2006 8:46 pm

A couple of things:

Firstly, how is a Sac Fly not an AB, yet it counts against the OBP. Either it should be an AB, and count against OBP, or it should be like a bunt, and should not count against the OBP. You can't "have it both ways".

Secondly, reaching on an error/wild pitch should definitely count in OBP. Over time, faster runners/better hustlers will reach on these types of plays.

Also, a hit by pitch isn't as "bad" as a walk. ON a walk, the pitcher missed iwth 4 pitches. FOr a HBP, the pitcher missed with 1.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Aug 09, 2006 10:00 pm

buffalobillsrul2002 wrote:A couple of things:

Firstly, how is a Sac Fly not an AB, yet it counts against the OBP. Either it should be an AB, and count against OBP, or it should be like a bunt, and should not count against the OBP. You can't "have it both ways".

Secondly, reaching on an error/wild pitch should definitely count in OBP. Over time, faster runners/better hustlers will reach on these types of plays.

Also, a hit by pitch isn't as "bad" as a walk. ON a walk, the pitcher missed iwth 4 pitches. FOr a HBP, the pitcher missed with 1.


1. It's not having it both ways. Sac hits don't count against OBP because the presumption, usually true, is that the batter was required to give away his chance to get on base because of his manager's decision. Sac flies are generally presumed to the result of the batter's decision, not the manager's, and/or generally the result of the batter's failed effort to get a hit. If OBP is intended to measure the batter's ability to get on base, then treating sacrifice hits and sacrifice flies differently makes good sense.

2. While I would tend to agree that a purer measure of OBP (times on base/plate appearances) would be better, there's little to no evidence that faster runners force more errors. A good study by Tom Tippett showed this to be the case. And, again, if the focus on OBP is to measure the batter's ability, rather than the impact of fielders, ignoring errors and WP makes sense.
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Postby buffalobillsrul2002 » Thu Aug 10, 2006 8:56 pm


1. It's not having it both ways. Sac hits don't count against OBP because the presumption, usually true, is that the batter was required to give away his chance to get on base because of his manager's decision. Sac flies are generally presumed to the result of the batter's decision, not the manager's, and/or generally the result of the batter's failed effort to get a hit. If OBP is intended to measure the batter's ability to get on base, then treating sacrifice hits and sacrifice flies differently makes good sense


I'm not talking about sac bunts really at all. I'm talking about only sac flies. I'm saying that either a sac fly should count like a sac bunt, or that it should not count as a sacrifice at all. I tend to side with not counting it as a sacrifice at all, and counting it as a regular AB, especially in situations where a sacrifice would essentially be worthless (down 8-1 in the 9th inning, for example).

Also, the fact that the speed of a hitter does not affect how often they reach on an error almost dumbfounds me, especially on errors by infielders. Do you have a link for that Tom Tippert study? I'm not saying that his study is necessarily wrong, i'd actually be very interested to see it.

On another thought, has anyone ever done a study on the number of bases taken by players via error? It would seem like faster runners would get more bases on the errors they did force.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Aug 10, 2006 9:57 pm

Here's a few of the speed studies I know if, all showing, at best, a very modest link between speed and errors.


http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf ... scores.htm

http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/ichiro.htm

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=2981

I agree with you on sacrifice flies. It ought to just be an AB.
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Postby buffalobillsrul2002 » Thu Aug 10, 2006 10:31 pm

GTWMA, thanks for the studies. There were a good few points made in there that i hadn't thought of before.
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Postby ordinarygenius » Fri Aug 11, 2006 1:10 pm

I would add that it would be logical, as long we consider the sacrifice fly to be a sacrifice (which is wrong IMO), to give a SF to the batter when his flyout gets a runner from 1st to 2nd or 2nd to 3rd. Just the same as with bunts.
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