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Israel vs. Hezbollah from an American who was in Israel

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Postby bleach168 » Wed Aug 09, 2006 8:54 am

Thanks for the article, RugbyD. I disagree with the pessimistic tone however wtg to Israel. I think Israel is in a great position right now. As the article alluded to, Hezbollah may be perceived as going toe-to-toe with Israel, but the reality of the situation is that Israel can wtfpwn Hezbollah at any time. They are only holding back because of world opinion. And why not since it's looking very likely that once a cease-fire happens, Lebanese and UN forces are going to enter south Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah. That would ruin any sort of "prestige" that Hezbollah has gained in recent weeks.
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Postby RugbyD » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:06 am

bleach168 wrote:Thanks for the article, RugbyD. I disagree with the pessimistic tone however wtg to Israel. I think Israel is in a great position right now.

What's interesting is that when this whole thing started, Strafor was relatively optimistic concerning Israel's ability to take out Hezbollah, but soon revised those assumptions way down. In their opinion, Israel's military intelligence was not as good as everyone expected it to be. Hezbollah has apparently been gameplanning this situation for quite some time and is well-dug-in. While effective in their own right, the airstrikes look to be hitting a wall in terms of their end net effectiveness.
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Postby bleach168 » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:29 am

RugbyD wrote:
bleach168 wrote:Thanks for the article, RugbyD. I disagree with the pessimistic tone however wtg to Israel. I think Israel is in a great position right now.

What's interesting is that when this whole thing started, Strafor was relatively optimistic concerning Israel's ability to take out Hezbollah, but soon revised those assumptions way down. In their opinion, Israel's military intelligence was not as good as everyone expected it to be. Hezbollah has apparently been gameplanning this situation for quite some time and is well-dug-in. While effective in their own right, the airstrikes look to be hitting a wall in terms of their end net effectiveness.


It's a guerilla war plain and simple. Airstrikes are pretty useless in a guerilla war.

Hezbollah hides among the local, sympathetic populace. When they don't see or hear any Israeli aircraft overhead, they jump out, launch a few backpack sized rockets and then quickly hide again. They can't even do it at night because Israeli thermalvision equipment is too good.

That's basically it. That's the extent of Hezbollah's fighting ability. Anything more conventional, and they would get obliterated and they know it. That's why they are scared to use their longer-ranged rockets. They don't have that many and as soon as they use them, Israel will be able to launch a precision airstrike to take out the exposed launcher.

Israeli troops are already moving in and around south Lebanon at will trying to root out Hezbollah. It's just time consuming that's all. Luckily for Israel, Lebanon and the UN are on their side. So they don't have to fight Hezbollah alone.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:39 am

TheRock wrote:
AcidRock23 wrote:I dunno if you can say 'Iran invented Hezbollah'. Israel did as much to invent them as anyone by booting the Palestinians out of their own country in 1949, appropriating titled land that had been in families for generations, lack of sincerity in negotiating w/ neighbors, etc. W/ nowhere to go, the Palestinian 'Exodus' represents a shadow nation of 'superfluous men' w/ little to do but blow stuff up. And, FWIW, the terrorists in the Middle East kind of got going w/ the Irgun blowing up the King David Hotel, KIDNAPPING and executing British soldiers and the like.


I'm so tired of people using this argument to defend terrorists. I don't care what your opinion is of what happened after WWI, WWII or anytime since. People targeting civilians, even women and children, with strap-on bombs or missiles FROM IRAN are dirt bag terrorists and there's nothing that ever happened or could have happened in the past that makes their actions anywhere near excusable. They need to be found and they need to be killed.


perhaps if the US would give Hezbollah some weapons comparable to those with which we've equipped Israel, the dirtbags (I do agree w/ that...I just think that both sides are about equally dirty here) would cause less 'collateral damage'?
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Postby Mills13 » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:45 am

Bleach,

I wouldn't say that the UN is at all in support of Israel. I would say the UN in general is probably the most out of touch with this conflict and I blame them along with a few things Hezbollah does that I've heard of but haven't been confirmed to influence news coverage. The only countries in support of Israel right now are Turkey, the US, and depending on the day England. Just read what the UN has said in the past few weeks and you'll see what I mean.

Also, if you want to use the fact that Lebanon is deploying 15,000 troops to the border as a way to show they don't want this to go on, don't buy it. The IDF reported several missle attacks by C-802 missles guided by ground-based radar along with SAM systems. These are much more complex than the typical Hezbollah missles. However, the Lebanese army has these so you'd have to think they are getting some closed-door help from Lebanon as well even though Hezbollah is victimizing Lebanon.

AcidRock,

There is currently a UN resolution proposed by the US that the UN and Lebanon would disarm Hezbollah and UNIFIL would oversee this operation. Nothing has happened. That is why the US is saying go for it and Hezbollah has received no weapons. Plus, they are considered to be a terrorist group on America's list as well.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Wed Aug 09, 2006 10:03 am

Mills13 wrote:There is currently a UN resolution proposed by the US that the UN and Lebanon would disarm Hezbollah and UNIFIL would oversee this operation. Nothing has happened. That is why the US is saying go for it and Hezbollah has received no weapons. Plus, they are considered to be a terrorist group on America's list as well.


That's true, I don't really expect that we would arm them but just want to point out that the reason that their missles hit civilians is b/c their missles suck. I suspect that if they had missles that were better, they would probably be choosing their targets more effectively. Whether or not they would try to avoid 'collateral damage' is an interesting question as well.
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Postby acsguitar » Wed Aug 09, 2006 11:09 am

Are you saying the American media hypes up things and makes it appear different then it really is.

NO WAY!!

Great read though thanks for the straight info ;-D
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Postby DevilDriver » Wed Aug 09, 2006 11:49 am

AcidRock23 wrote:
Mills13 wrote:There is currently a UN resolution proposed by the US that the UN and Lebanon would disarm Hezbollah and UNIFIL would oversee this operation. Nothing has happened. That is why the US is saying go for it and Hezbollah has received no weapons. Plus, they are considered to be a terrorist group on America's list as well.


That's true, I don't really expect that we would arm them but just want to point out that the reason that their missles hit civilians is b/c their missles suck. I suspect that if they had missles that were better, they would probably be choosing their targets more effectively. Whether or not they would try to avoid 'collateral damage' is an interesting question as well.

You're basically justifying Hezbollah for killing civilians. So what if they have inaccurate missiles? THEN DON'T FIRE THEM! But that's the whole point - Hezbollah doesn't care because their goal is to obliterate Israel... they WANT to kill civilians.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Wed Aug 09, 2006 12:38 pm

DevilDriver wrote:
AcidRock23 wrote:
Mills13 wrote:There is currently a UN resolution proposed by the US that the UN and Lebanon would disarm Hezbollah and UNIFIL would oversee this operation. Nothing has happened. That is why the US is saying go for it and Hezbollah has received no weapons. Plus, they are considered to be a terrorist group on America's list as well.


That's true, I don't really expect that we would arm them but just want to point out that the reason that their missles hit civilians is b/c their missles suck. I suspect that if they had missles that were better, they would probably be choosing their targets more effectively. Whether or not they would try to avoid 'collateral damage' is an interesting question as well.

You're basically justifying Hezbollah for killing civilians. So what if they have inaccurate missiles? THEN DON'T FIRE THEM! But that's the whole point - Hezbollah doesn't care because their goal is to obliterate Israel... they WANT to kill civilians.


actually what they want is to get the land that the Israelis appropriated from Palestinians or at least discuss this, which the Israelis have refused.

The fact that reparations have been paid for the Holocaust might suggest reparations would be an 'angle' to provide a settlement for those Palestinians who can prove that they were 'wronged' and perhaps reach some kind of 'settlement' but security of Israel is always the primary concern and Palestinian 'rights' are dismissed. Not many of the Hezbollah dudes on CNN or wherever have really focused on this point very well so it might be crazy to suggest this angle but, in the historical accounts of the conflict I've read, this is the bottom line issue more than anything else.
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Postby Mills13 » Wed Aug 09, 2006 12:55 pm

ACSguitar, Yes I am saying that American media is hyping the war up because I've been there and although it does affect everyone, it has not made a big impact on Israeli life style, or even Lebanese for that matter since most of the fighting is near the border.

Acidrock, I have a huge problem with what you just said about Israel basically taking land from the Palestinians because of the Holocaust. First of all, if you want to talk about taking land away, the Muslims lost their land to the Ottomans a long time ago however weren't exiled like the Jews were every time a new ruler came in. Also, when the Muslims had it, it was called Phillistine but that's really not the point. Fast forward to after WWI and the British take over Palestine from the Ottomans (notice how the Palestinians still aren't in control. It was actually the UN who made the first attempt at a Palestinian state in 1947 to live side by side with Jews and it obviously didn't work.

Also, there are Palestinians who actually work in Israel and have more rights there than in any other Arab country (Jordan). How are their rights dismissed? If you want to blame their tough situation, the rest of the Arab world shares blame with Israel. When Israel gave back the Sinai in 1967, they also proposed Gaza too because it was in Israel's best interest to no longer occupy a territory with such a small Jewish minority. The Egyptians said no because they don't recognize the Palestinians as a people and neither do Jordan.
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