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Postby raiders_umpire » Tue Aug 08, 2006 3:11 pm

I would want Hughes fairly easily over Pence. Hughes has front of the rotation type stuff, where as I see Pence as more of 3rd outfielder in 12 team leagues. I would take the possible stud.
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Postby rmande09 » Tue Aug 08, 2006 3:24 pm

SwisherSweet wrote:Ok....I am not happy how one sided it is for Hughes...He is a top prospect on the best Team the Yankess....So, they need pitching, and he foots the bill....but Pence is nothing to balk at....the guy is mashing, and is a complete gamer.....I own Pence in my dynasty...I would love to have Hughes....the bottom line is they are both minor leaguers and it is a coin flip who will develop more....I like Hunter Pence....



What's with the love affair with Pence? He's never been a TOP prospect, and the only reason people love him is because of his hot start to this season. His BB:K has decreased as he has gotten older and advanced and is a 23 year old in AA. His speed will dissipate fairly soon because of his size, and it's hard to project a "power" guy to be very successful in the Majors when his BB:K is getting worse, not better, and considering his ceiling and talent projection, it's tough to really see how you can say it is a "coin" flip. That implies odds are 50-50, yet it is clearly obvious Hughes has a much better chance. It's more like rolling a die, and Pence can be "one" (or any other digit for that matter) and Hughes is the other five. Even then, that's questionable.

Think of it this way. Philip Hughes is currently a top three pitcher in the Minors. This includes EVERY pitcher. He just turned 20 and has been absolutely dominant at AA this season. Homer Bailey is really the only guy who clearly has a higher ceiling, though it's by very little, and Hughes is outperforming him at the moment. You could throw Hughes into the Majors right now and he'd probably be a #3. At 20! Throw Pence in the Majors right now, and he'd be sent down just as quick. His average would drop down to below the Mendoza line, his power would be gone, and his BB:K would probably be as close to zero as humanly possible; hell, it may even be zero. There are PLENTY of OF prospects out there that are far ahead of Pence, FAR ahead. There is MAYBE one ahead of Hughes.

If you don't want to take my word on it, check every single prospect rankings. ALL of them have Hughes in the top 13, with him being the #1 or #2 pitching prospect. Pence is generally somewhere around 50, and he is around the 18th ranked OF. Catch me?
C: Pierzynski
1B: Pujols
2B: Altuve
3B: Miggy
SS: HanRam
OF (x3): CarGo, M. Bourn, D. Jennings
UTIL (x2): E. Encarnacion, C. Hart
BN: Cuddyer, C. Ross, J. Montero

SP: Price, Gallardo, T. Hudson, Lester
RP: Chapman, Jansen, Rodney, Putz, Cishek, Bailey
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Postby Galt » Tue Aug 08, 2006 3:37 pm

First, it's not really a debate. Hughes is head and shoulders above Pence when it comes to their ceiling. Pence may be closer, but probably only by half a year; not enough to have it really matter.

I'd much rather have Hughes.

However, don't dismiss Pence completely though. Every midseason updated ranking has Pence in the top 30ish prospects right now.

People didn't like his swing or his age, but now at 23 in AA it's not like he's old, and it's not like he's playing against very weak competition.

He was great last year, and he's been great this year. His plate discipline hasn't been like Dustin Pedroia, it hasn't been Matt Kempish either.

He's no joke, and should be a solid regular.

I can see him being a .280 guy with 30 homers and maybe 5-10 steals.

Certainly no perrenial All-star, and not at the level of Hughes, but you make him seem like he's a future bench player.
Last edited by Galt on Tue Aug 08, 2006 6:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby rmande09 » Tue Aug 08, 2006 6:36 pm

He has a LONG ways to go to hit .280 and 30 in the big leagues. A LONG way. His plate discipline is beyond poor - you say it's not as bad as Kemp's, but the last time I checked, Kemp has made great strides in not only improving his contact rates but also his plate discipline. Take out Kemp's ML stint, and he's sitting at 31:51 this season. Not particularly impressive, but he has improved DRASTICALLY. He was clearly not ready for his Big League stint and that had a lot to do with his awful BB:K.

Pence has continued to regress as he has been promoted, and has shown no signs of improving his Ks. He has gone from 23:30 (.767 in 199 ABs at A- as a 21), to 38:53 (.717 in 302 ABs at A as a 22), to 18:37 (.486 in 151 ABs at A+ as a 22 - seemed like an anomoly, figured it was from the promotion and adjustment period), to 42:89 (.472 in 419 ABs at AA as a 23) this season. While most prospects are making progress in the contact department, Pence is going backwards. He can get away with that and hit .290-whatever at AA because he has the power and just pure ability to hit that pitching, but there is a slight upgrade from AA to MLB in terms of pitching. As of right now, they'd tear Pence apart.

Pence would not survive in the Bigs right now and could have a LOT of trouble staying next season if he does not work on his contact rate. It's not as though he's young for his level (23 at AA could even be considered slightly above age for a "top" prospect), and a lot of his "top prospect" status is thanks to his hotter-than-hot start. He has slowed in the past couple of months (he's hit what, 8 homers since mid-July?) and is no where near as impressive as everyone is making him out to be.

Baseball Analysts ranked Pence at 44 in their Mid-Season rankings. Galt, as someone who seems to know quite a bit about the Minors, you'd agree that Smith's rankings were pretty much the only "legit" midseason rankings out there. This is what they had to say:

Bryan Smith wrote:At some point, you have to give a guy credit if he continues to have success, despite the naysayers not going away. Pence has legitimate power, and is going to have some success in the Major Leagues. However, there's a gray line between some success and consistent success, and thanks to his BB/K rate, I can't see which side he's on quite yet.


That's my point. He more or less says what I've been [attempting to] prove. He has a ways to go before he'll actually be a stud, or even hit .280 with 30 homers.

I didn't mean to make it out to look like he'll be a bench player. It will take him a while to get it going, possibly even a few years in the Bigs, and even then, he may not be that great of a player - a 3rd OF? Who knows. As for fantasy, there's no question he'll hold LITTLE value in his first couple of Major League seasons. Francoeur is on pace for .260 - 30, and even he is barely a 3rd OF in fantasy. There is no question that Philip Hughes is a much better choice and is much more likely to reach his ceiling. And I also wouldn't be surprised if he's up before Pence.
C: Pierzynski
1B: Pujols
2B: Altuve
3B: Miggy
SS: HanRam
OF (x3): CarGo, M. Bourn, D. Jennings
UTIL (x2): E. Encarnacion, C. Hart
BN: Cuddyer, C. Ross, J. Montero

SP: Price, Gallardo, T. Hudson, Lester
RP: Chapman, Jansen, Rodney, Putz, Cishek, Bailey
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Postby Galt » Tue Aug 08, 2006 6:56 pm

Baseball Analysts was by far the best one. I thought they had him in the low 30s. My mistake.

Pence's plate discipline has been erratic this year, but it correlates to his power.

In May and June when he had the most power (15 homers in ~210 AB), his K/BB was 48/19. In April, July, and August (9 homers in ~210 AB) his K/BB was 42/28). Not surprisingly, his BA is much higher in April, July, August (~.340) than it was in the other two months (sub .250). So far in August, he's got 7 walks and only 5Ks (grant, small sample).

Now, I may be certainly guilty of self-selecting the sample, but I think, both the power and discipline is there. As he matures and learns to let the power flow without forcing it, he could be a 30 HR guy. FirstInning.com (whoever they are) has him projected as a 30 HR guy as soon as '08.

However, being in Houston may be the worst place for him if he wants to improve his plate discipline. They don't seem to care about it as a franchise, as they're consistently in the bottom third of the league in OBP
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