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Do Overall SB Numbers Decline in Aug./Sept?

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Do Overall SB Numbers Decline in Aug./Sept?

Postby d18Mike » Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:32 am

This is not another Juan "The Turtle" Pierre rant (don't get me started) but given the general sloth of my SB producers of late I'm wondering if from an overall statistical standpoint fewer SBs are produced in the last two months?

Not sure if the players are more beat up, less willing to accept potential injury in a pennant drive or what, but the drop off seems, or rather feels very real.

Anyone have evidence of this --for or against.

Again, this is just a perception and one that I've noted in the last couple years. Not sure if it is fact or fiction/
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Postby jdh » Thu Sep 04, 2003 3:03 am

It probably depends. I would guess that SB numbers for experienced players who have been playing full time all year decline as the year goes on, due to fatigue and nagging injuries. However, you also always have callups and roster expansion which means alot of rookies coming up trying to prove themselves in the big leagues, and they are more likely to steal bases. So, I'd think that would offset the fatigue factor, and you'd probably see consistent steals all year, just with the steals more scattered across many players late in the year.
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Postby d » Thu Sep 04, 2003 3:23 am

Agreed with jdh ;-D
Here are some of the callups that are stealing recently:
Coco Crisp, Figgins, etc ...
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Postby ramble2 » Thu Sep 04, 2003 3:41 am

The last week of the season tends to be a good one for stolen bases too. Some guys try and take off so that they can hit a milestone number like 20 (and, thus, be a 20/20 guy come contract negotiation time).

In years where there is a close race to lead the league in SBs, you'll often see the league leaders take off in the last week or so. Especially if those players are on non-playoff contending teams.

Players tend to be more apt to go for a stolen base when their teams are out of the playoff hunt. The managers will often give them a green light when they otherwise wouldn't.
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Postby Madison » Thu Sep 04, 2003 9:54 am

A lot of managers like to play it safe toward the end of the year. Why risk running yourself out of an inning if you are in the playoff hunt, and why risk an injury if you are out of it? Steals have been a little slow (get it? :-b ) the last couple of weeks, but I think they will increase from this point out.
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