Zito is God wrote:I have learned that unlike all other sports, the MLB draft predicts nothing. At least 50% of 1st round picks bust, and the 1st overall pick tends to be a mediocre player who ends up being a journeyman in the majors most of the time. Pujols, Bay, Piazza, etc. all prove this theory.
I believe this concept happens because in baseball there are so many levels you go through before getting to the majors that everyone adapts differently and thus late round nobodies can become stars while in the NBA, NFL, etc. you start off in the "majors" and your current talent is immediately thrust forth into that level of a league.
It's the reason no one really gives a disguised curses still count
about the major league draft. Baseball can't turn it into the "event" it is in the NBA and NFL even though it wants to. I'll take it further, not only can you barely project success based on the draft, but even prospect lists are more hit-or-miss than you'd imagine.
2001 Top 40
Baseball America: no Pujols
Baseball Prospectus: no Soriano, Beckett
2002 Top 40
Baseball America: no Carl Crawford, Peavy
Baseball Prospectus: no Miguel Cabrera
2003 Top 40
Baseball America: no Hafner, Jose Reyes, Victor Martinez, Mauer
Baseball Prospectus: no Kazmir, Bonderman
These are Top 40 only, not that they were unranked.
Chris Iannetta was born on Krypton and transported to Earth as an infant and saves the universe when he's not getting on base every plate appearance.