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Chen-Mieng Wang (Merged)

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Postby bigken117 » Mon Oct 09, 2006 11:46 pm

I wouldn't say implosion, but if he doesn't improve his K rate (which he looks capable of) then his peripheral numbers will probably suffer in the future. Give up as many ground balls as you want...if they go up the middle or to your 3B ;-7 they're going to be baserunners.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Mon Oct 09, 2006 11:58 pm

bigken117 wrote:I wouldn't say implosion, but if he doesn't improve his K rate (which he looks capable of) then his peripheral numbers will probably suffer in the future. Give up as many ground balls as you want...if they go up the middle or to your 3B ;-7 they're going to be baserunners.


Did not know David Bell or Chone Figgins or Aram were that bad with the glove.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:29 am

TheYanks04 wrote:
bigken117 wrote:I wouldn't say implosion, but if he doesn't improve his K rate (which he looks capable of) then his peripheral numbers will probably suffer in the future. Give up as many ground balls as you want...if they go up the middle or to your 3B ;-7 they're going to be baserunners.


Did not know David Bell or Chone Figgins or Aram were that bad with the glove.
David Bell? He couldn't get it done in Philly. I'm sure he'll be a big hit with the Yanks.
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Postby JustAnotherYanksFan » Tue Oct 10, 2006 1:12 am

If Wang's K rate doesn't improve, then it wouldn't surprise me to see in ERA in the low 4's instead of the mid 3's - the K rate is just so low that it's hard to see it consistently below 4 (even though when you watch Wang pitch it's almost hard to imagine how his ERA is above 3).

But with his stuff, it also wouldn't surprise me to see his ERA stay the same and the K's go up. Every once in a while I've seen him throw a splitter (which doesn't seem to be very effective, no one really ever bites on it). But if he can develop a decent splitter during the off-season then considering how often he gets ahead of the count on hitters, it wouldn't really be surprising at all to see the K rate increase.
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Postby Half Massed » Tue Oct 10, 2006 2:39 am

I can see this holding true for most pitchers who have success with low K rates early in their career (see: Kirk Saarloos), but Wang does seem to have the ability to get the Ks if he pitched for them, (unlike Saarloos, 11 K in 5 inning game notwithstanding). That reason is partially why Beane went after starting pitching last offseason instead of saying Kirk was good enough for the 5th spot. That 2.99 K/9 rate didn't bode well for future success.

But back to Wang, he shouldn't fall victim to this observation as he should be able to get the Ks should his current approach begin to fail him.
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Postby Surfs up » Tue Oct 10, 2006 7:10 am

I'm surprised he doesn't strikeout more hitters. But as long as he gets the job done and keeps putting up numbers like he did I'll keep him .
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Postby acsguitar » Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:48 pm

Once he "Masters" the sinker he'll be extremely nasty
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Postby kimchi_chigae » Tue Oct 10, 2006 3:12 pm

I'm with the people who think his ERA will climb up to 4 if he doesn't increase his K/9.

I remember reading something on Chien-Ming Wang, on BP I think, that he's been pretty good in keeping the lead off hitter from reaching the base. A hitter leading off an inning batted something like .230 against him while the entire opposing lineup batted .277 this year. A lower number of lead off hitters on base would mean less runs.
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Postby Lofunzo » Thu Oct 12, 2006 2:01 am

I didn't read all of these posts but I am really surprised that he doesn't K more guys. He has mid 90's velocity with a lot of movement.
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Postby Secret Avatar » Sun Oct 15, 2006 7:34 pm

I'm one of those who believe an ERA explosion is waiting unless he can drastically improve his K rate. His underlying metrics point to a much higher ERA: 76 K in 218 IP is almost comically low, his 52 BB isn't particularly strong; and a 1.31 WHIP and 277 BAA are not the stuff of mid-3 ERAs.

He's allowing a fair number of baserunners and a TON of balls in play. So far, he has survived on the strength of his extremely high GB rate and luck that those GBs were playable. But anyone who allows that many balls put in play is "living on the edge" -- especially in the AL East, with more that its share of sluggers, and on the Yanks, which have had more than their share of defensive problems.

Unless he can materially improve that K rate, I think his ERA next year will be closer to the mid-4s than the mid-3s. :-t
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