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Postby J35J » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:16 pm

I think the whole "ace" thing got blown out of proportion. As far as I'm concerned hes a #3 type guy with the stuff he has now. I only mentioned the ace thing IF he could develop a good offspeed pitch, which WOULD result in more K's as he does have a good fastball/sinker. But since he is virtually a 1 pitch pitcher that is why he doesn't strike anyone out. And that is why he isn't anything more than a #3 type. Anyway, this is too much attention paid to a slightly above average pitcher, and a Yankee at that. I guess, what did I really expect bringing up a Yankee pitcher..... ;-7


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Postby davidmarver » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:40 pm

in10s wrote:
davidmarver wrote:... I don't see how someone with a K/9 of under 1.5 can ever become an ace. No one's ever had prolonged success in the modern era with a K/9 ratio close to that,


I have no clue if Wang (who is 26) will develop more and become an ACE. But where did you get the K/9 under 1.5?

2006: 3.00
2005: 3.64 with Yanks, 5.56 in AAA
2004: 7.81 in AAA, 7.43 in AA

He doesn't strike out a lot, but he does get a few.

My bad. I was talking about K/BB ratio, but mistakely wrote K/9.
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Postby teddy ballgame » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:55 pm

BritSox wrote:
Red Sox Nation wrote:Nice scouting report. I too agree. If he can get that third pitch in he can strike out some people. Perhaps he should learn what Johan or Sheets does for striking out people. Basically he's a Brandon Webb (or Derek Lowe) with less Ks in the AL.

He could be the ace but what about the Yankees prospect. Phillip Hughes or whatever his name is. He's supposed to be "untouchable".

With Randy Johnson and Mussina getting old, the Yankees are in big trouble for pitching. I'm sure they can get someone in the offseason but their farm system won't produce a lot of good players. They'll have to rely on free agents or trades to help their rotation.

Nice report.


How big trouble? They've developed Wang, they've got Hughes coming, and it's not like they won't have the money to replace RJ and Moose when they go.

That's exactly what he said. They have 2 guys and beyond that they have to rely on FA's or trades. Recent history has shown they aren't great in doing those 2 things succesfully either.
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Chien-Ming Wang overdue for an implosion?

Postby thedude » Mon Oct 09, 2006 10:32 pm

Ok this is going to sound crazy after the year he just had, but it seems rather likely. Before you start shouting me down, just listen to what I have to say.


I was reading me Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract early today, (it is a good book, you should really buy it), and came across an interesting essay about strikeout rates of young pitchers. He maintains that ALL pitchers who are successful and last for a long period of time have high strikeout rates as young pitchers. He goes on to say that if you make off the top 100 pitchers you will find every single one has average to above average strikeout rates for their first couple years in the league. He goes on to say that if look at, say all pitchers who won 17 games as 24 year olds (a small number), and rank the pitchers by strikeout rate you will find that the pitchers with below league average strikeout rates will have much shorter careers than the pitchers with above league average strikeout rates (when you factor the pitchers who had arm injuries out the equation for both groups).

He, of course supports this much better than I can in a short forum post (his essay is like 5 pages long). But you get the idea.



This started me thinking about Chien-Ming Wang. He of course was one of the best pitchers in the league this last year. He also had a strikeout rates 3.1 k/9ip (3.8 k/9ip as a rookie). So does this mean that he is due to be terrible this next year? No. But it seems likely looking at historical trends that he won't be a dominant pitcher for very long.

Oh and if you want to compare him to guys who aren't really considered power pitchers, check out Strikeout rates posted as a second year pitchers:


Derek Lowe: 5.6
Greg Maddux: 6.3
David Wells: 8.3
And just for laughs a knuckleballer, Candiotti: 7.1


And just so you know, i couldn't find one example of a pitcher with strikeout rates as low as Wang's, who lasted for a long period of time.

This premise does not hold true for relief pitchers.
Last edited by thedude on Mon Oct 09, 2006 11:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby blankman » Mon Oct 09, 2006 10:38 pm

This has been talked about several times already.

I'll try to dig up my response...

The jist of it is,

Wang gets more groundballs than anyone. He also gets more double plays than almost anyone. Add in the fact that he does not get hit hard, low LD%, and doesn't give up many HR's and you have Chien Ming Wang. He's an efficient pitcher because he gets ground ball outs and even with a mediocre defense behind him, his low LD% allows him to get a lot of easy outs without throwing the number of pitches a guy trying to strike people out does.

If he starts to get hit harder then he has a problem, but it has yet to happen.

blankman wrote:
His fastball is often as high as 97.


He's a bit like Mariano. Wang had godd K numbers in the minors, as did Mo when he was younger. But his sinker ball is so good that he can throw fewer pitches by letting hitters get themselves out.

His minor league K rates are:

2005
5.56 K/9

2004
7.53

2003
6.19

If he can be this effective and economical with his sinker, why bother throwing more pitches to try to strike people out?


Its not as if he can't strike guys out, but he's having success throwing fewer pitches and getting ground balls. I don't think there is enough evidence to say he couldn't strike hitters out at this level if he starts to get hit harder either.
Last edited by blankman on Mon Oct 09, 2006 10:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Geek » Mon Oct 09, 2006 10:43 pm

I'd be more worried if Wang didn't throw mid-90's. The stuff is there.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Mon Oct 09, 2006 11:04 pm

As long as he limits the walks and keeps getting groundballs he will be OK. But dominant no. He wasn't dominant this year.
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Postby thedude » Mon Oct 09, 2006 11:18 pm

blankman wrote:Its not as if he can't strike guys out, but he's having success throwing fewer pitches and getting ground balls. I don't think there is enough evidence to say he couldn't strike hitters out at this level if he starts to get hit harder either.


Maybe, but i'd be willing to bet that he will have a dropoff next year. from this years numbers.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Mon Oct 09, 2006 11:23 pm

"impulsion" typed and no one notices... how sad.
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Postby thedude » Mon Oct 09, 2006 11:33 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:"impulsion" typed and no one notices... how sad.



Thankyou for pointing that out, i was typing quickly.
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