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Postby tianyi86 » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:46 am

ukrneal wrote:
DK wrote:
BillyHallDisciple wrote:His K rate is low, but at least this year all the other results are really helping out my fantasy team big-time. I also think he's underrated. Sure, maybe he can't keep it up forever, but why nitpick about a guy with a 13-4 record and ERA in the mid-3's? Last I checked, wins and ERA still carry a ton of value in my two 12-team leagues.

I love it when people miss the boat on guys like Wang because they pick on a flaw. Adam Dunn never hits for average, but that doesn't mean you shy away from him on draft day, right? So, Wang doesn't k people. Big deal.


That's not what I mean at all. Wang's value this year has been very good - there's no denying that whatsoever. I'm talking about his value in the future. There has never - in the modern era of baseball - been a pitcher with a K rate this low who has been able to continue his success. Period. The comparison to Dunn is illogical, because players can succeed with an average of .260 - it's about average. The difference would be if Dunn only batted .190 - that's about the equivalent of Wang's K rate.

I like Wang and I hope he succeeds but at this rate, like I said earlier, he's treading in thin ice for the future.


This is pretty much true. You may find pitchers who have had one or even two good seasons with such rates, but you won't find someone who's done it more. Bill James did some sort of study on this and concluded that pitchers who didn't meet some sort of threshhold on K/9 would never be successful. I think it was around 5 or 6. It didn't have to be a career average, but at least something a rookie or young pitcher would have as it usually decreases with age. Maybe someone remembers better than I do what James was saying?

Silva is the nearest analogy and look how poorly he did this year and well last year. If his luck changes, maybe those groundballs get through for hits.


I havent followed silva that much but I know for sure his gb:fb ratio is much higher than wangs. Just look at the number of long ball that silva has given up. Also, silvas hard stuff doesnt come close to wangs either. Wang's fastball tops at 97mph on the radar gun in yankee stadium; since ppl argue yankees overclock their pitchers, wangs fastball is at least 93. This is important bc a 97 mph fastball makes his sinker and changeup that much harder to hit where as silvas fastball tops out around 90.
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Postby mcliffy2 » Fri Aug 04, 2006 11:19 am

I've thoroughly enjoyed his last 2 starts for my team. However, I've just been grabbing him off waivers for his home starts. He has been not so great away from Yankee Stadium, check out the glaring difference:

Home: 9-1 with 2.66 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
Away: 4-3 with 4.99 ERA, 1.58 WHIP

For now at least, since his bad starts give you nothing for Ks, I think he should still be benched on road starts unless they are favorable matchups.
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Postby blankman » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:42 pm

Submariner wrote:
blankman wrote:
BritSox wrote:
acsguitar wrote:
BritSox wrote:What amazes me is that he's given up the fewest unearned runs in the Yankee rotation. You think that a guy who gets so many groundballs would put a lot of pressure on his defence.


OHHHHHHHH subtle Pwn of the yankees defense...hey who's in first place??




I'd have thought it likely that any defense in baseball would make more errors for a guy who puts the ball in play and makes his defenders work for the out, than for a guy who sits down a decent proportion of the guys he faces, simply by extrapolating from the number of chances.

Believe me, i'm all for pwning the Yankee infield, but how good or bad it is doesn't really explain why it yields more unearned runs with RJ or Moose on the mound than Wang.


Perhaps when he's pitching, the fielders know they always have to be ready and are thereby "on their toes" at all times.


Perhaps I like to dance around like a fairy in a red wig and glitter and swallow marbles. Or maybe Wang's just been lucky with his groundballs.


You should probably see someone about that. ;-)

His sinker usually isn't hit that hard, so its easier to defend.
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Postby DK » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:46 pm

blankman wrote:
Submariner wrote:
blankman wrote:
BritSox wrote:
acsguitar wrote:
BritSox wrote:What amazes me is that he's given up the fewest unearned runs in the Yankee rotation. You think that a guy who gets so many groundballs would put a lot of pressure on his defence.


OHHHHHHHH subtle Pwn of the yankees defense...hey who's in first place??




I'd have thought it likely that any defense in baseball would make more errors for a guy who puts the ball in play and makes his defenders work for the out, than for a guy who sits down a decent proportion of the guys he faces, simply by extrapolating from the number of chances.

Believe me, i'm all for pwning the Yankee infield, but how good or bad it is doesn't really explain why it yields more unearned runs with RJ or Moose on the mound than Wang.


Perhaps when he's pitching, the fielders know they always have to be ready and are thereby "on their toes" at all times.


Perhaps I like to dance around like a fairy in a red wig and glitter and swallow marbles. Or maybe Wang's just been lucky with his groundballs.


You should probably see someone about that. ;-)

His sinker usually isn't hit that hard, so its easier to defend.


This is very true and most of the reason why he's been so successful. He allows very few hard-hit balls (15.7% LD rate, 5th lowest in the AL) and gets mostly groundballs.

That being said I still don't believe he can keep up this kind of success unless his K's increase or his LD% becomes something like 10% or some historically low number.
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Postby blankman » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:56 pm

DK wrote:
blankman wrote:
Submariner wrote:
blankman wrote:
BritSox wrote:
acsguitar wrote:
BritSox wrote:What amazes me is that he's given up the fewest unearned runs in the Yankee rotation. You think that a guy who gets so many groundballs would put a lot of pressure on his defence.


OHHHHHHHH subtle Pwn of the yankees defense...hey who's in first place??




I'd have thought it likely that any defense in baseball would make more errors for a guy who puts the ball in play and makes his defenders work for the out, than for a guy who sits down a decent proportion of the guys he faces, simply by extrapolating from the number of chances.

Believe me, i'm all for pwning the Yankee infield, but how good or bad it is doesn't really explain why it yields more unearned runs with RJ or Moose on the mound than Wang.


Perhaps when he's pitching, the fielders know they always have to be ready and are thereby "on their toes" at all times.


Perhaps I like to dance around like a fairy in a red wig and glitter and swallow marbles. Or maybe Wang's just been lucky with his groundballs.


You should probably see someone about that. ;-)

His sinker usually isn't hit that hard, so its easier to defend.


This is very true and most of the reason why he's been so successful. He allows very few hard-hit balls (15.7% LD rate, 5th lowest in the AL) and gets mostly groundballs.

That being said I still don't believe he can keep up this kind of success unless his K's increase or his LD% becomes something like 10% or some historically low number.


Not bad for just going with what I see huh?

As for the K rate, I guess you missed my post about his minor league numbers. He was in the 5-7 k/9 range in his last 3 years in the minors. Since his sinker is so effective, maybe he's realized, much like Rivera did, that he can just let people get themselves out and doesn't need to strike everyone out. It allows him to throw a ton fewer pitches and lets him consistantly go deep into ballgames.
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Postby DK » Fri Aug 04, 2006 1:02 pm

blankman wrote:
DK wrote:
blankman wrote:
Submariner wrote:
blankman wrote:
BritSox wrote:
acsguitar wrote:
BritSox wrote:What amazes me is that he's given up the fewest unearned runs in the Yankee rotation. You think that a guy who gets so many groundballs would put a lot of pressure on his defence.


OHHHHHHHH subtle Pwn of the yankees defense...hey who's in first place??




I'd have thought it likely that any defense in baseball would make more errors for a guy who puts the ball in play and makes his defenders work for the out, than for a guy who sits down a decent proportion of the guys he faces, simply by extrapolating from the number of chances.

Believe me, i'm all for pwning the Yankee infield, but how good or bad it is doesn't really explain why it yields more unearned runs with RJ or Moose on the mound than Wang.


Perhaps when he's pitching, the fielders know they always have to be ready and are thereby "on their toes" at all times.


Perhaps I like to dance around like a fairy in a red wig and glitter and swallow marbles. Or maybe Wang's just been lucky with his groundballs.


You should probably see someone about that. ;-)

His sinker usually isn't hit that hard, so its easier to defend.


This is very true and most of the reason why he's been so successful. He allows very few hard-hit balls (15.7% LD rate, 5th lowest in the AL) and gets mostly groundballs.

That being said I still don't believe he can keep up this kind of success unless his K's increase or his LD% becomes something like 10% or some historically low number.


Not bad for just going with what I see huh?

As for the K rate, I guess you missed my post about his minor league numbers. He was in the 5-7 k/9 range in his last 3 years in the minors. Since his sinker is so effective, maybe he's realized, much like Rivera did, that he can just let people get themselves out and doesn't need to strike everyone out. It allows him to throw a ton fewer pitches and lets him consistantly go deep into ballgames.


5-7 K/9 in the minors isn't really that impressive though. He allows a lot - a LOT - of batted balls. And when he's on, he'll be on. But he'll have nights where he gets truly lit up because the batted balls keep going in between fielders. That's why K's are so helpful - they eliminate that possibility.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Fri Aug 04, 2006 3:52 pm

Just for fun I ran Wang's component stats to find the expected era and whip:

156.0ip/48k/39bb/8hr projects to a 4.00 era (adjusted higher for the AL) and a 1.378 whip. However I would guess he could sustain a lower whip than that due to all of the double play outs that he gets...my standard number is that a pitcher needs to get 2.82 batters out per inning (outs on the basepaths, double-plays, etc. deduct from the full 3 outs per inning). Wang probably ends up averaging a bit less than 2.82 batters gotten out per inning as I'd imagine he's toward the top of the league in double-plays.

The whip isn't pretty but Wang is showing that you can succeed as a major league pitcher simply by throwing strikes and not giving up home runs. He's actually been a bit lucky on the hr/f% this year giving up a park adjusted hr/f% of 8.2% but he gives up so few fly balls that only amounts to about 2.7 more home runs and an increase in expected era of 0.22 or so. Wang just gets SO many ground balls that he can get by as a slightly above average pitcher without getting strikeouts.
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A quick Chien-Ming Wang review.....

Postby J35J » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:05 am

Right Handed Pitcher
Height/Weight 6'3/210
B-Day 3/31/80

Minor League Career
3.35 ERA
1.22 WHIP
7.06 K/9
2.04 BB/9

92-96 mph fastball/sinker
87-90 mph slider

Chien is pretty much a 1 pitch pitcher the first couple times through the order, which is fine since he uses an above average sinker that usually sits in the mid 90's. The problem with this, at least for fantasy owners, is that he won't strike many guys out because they know what is coming. The good thing for Wang is most guys can only take that pitch and drill it straight into the ground. Once he gets to the third time through the order he will mix in an average slider which keeps guys off balance. If Wang can come up with a good off-speed pitch (curve/change) he could be a legit ace, but since he is primarily a 1 pitch pitcher he is more like a #2-3 type guy.


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Postby The Big Stick » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:04 am

I'm not sure if anyone has ever call Wang an ACE pitcher. Having said that I agree with your analysis. The flip side to the strikeouts, is the fact that he doesn't hardly walk a batter, thus that balances the K's. His WHIP and ERA will not hurt you either.
If you have Wang as your ACE you have some serious pitching problems.
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Postby J35J » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:46 am

The Big Stick wrote:I'm not sure if anyone has ever call Wang an ACE pitcher. Having said that I agree with your analysis. The flip side to the strikeouts, is the fact that he doesn't hardly walk a batter, thus that balances the K's. His WHIP and ERA will not hurt you either.
If you have Wang as your ACE you have some serious pitching problems.


Not quite sure where the "ACE" talk came from... :-?

But yeah, since he just throws 1 pitch the majority of the time he does have solid control. Low walk totals and low HR totals means you really have to put together a rally to score many runs off of him. I do think that as next couple years roll around, more and more teams will lock in on him if he doesn't either throw his slider more often or doesn't come up with another pitch. Either way he is a solid pitcher.

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