The Loveable Losers wrote:I'm not quite as bullish on Hamels as the previous poster. His skill set is one that you'll see a lot of minor leaguers get by with up until they come up and then get shelled. He's a great strikeout pitcher with a plus fastball and change-up but he's very much a fly ball pitcher - 34.3% gb% so far this year. His 13% park adjusted hr/f% shows that his 1.52 hr/9 ratio is only slightly elevated...at best I would expect it to improve to the 1.28 hr/9 range (barring a change in his gb%). Along with a 9.6 k/9 and a 4.0 bb/9 that hr/9 number projects him to a 4.05 era and a 1.338 whip. If he gets the command in check and lowers the bb/9 he'll be able to mitigate that somewhat (especially the whip) but he's a fly ball pitcher in Philly...he's only going to be able to do so much about the hr/9 and that will always make him risky in the era area.
but he's a strikeout pitcher.. meaning he's gonna throw strikes and try to get it by you. occasionally the good hitters are gonna catchup to his mistakes and hit HRs... i think a lot of power type strikeout pitchers are susceptible to giving up HRs. if he gets his control in check i think his HRs allowed will reduce.
You're right that a lot of strikeout pitchers give up a higher number of hr's...but that still doesn't help his era. Better control could certainly help the hr's allowed too.
Snakes Gould wrote:see the thing is, his command was AWESOME throughout the minors and all of a sudden he seemed to lose it. i definitely think the bb's will come down in the future. he does need work from the stretch and holdin runners on base.
The minor league numbers may be deceiving and they may not. I'll profess that I don't know for sure on this one but it's certainly possible that the lack of walks in the minors were due not to Hamels control but to the fact that minor leaguers couldn't lay off his change-up. When you have a plus pitch like that you don't have to throw it right where you want it in the minors...most of the hitters are so overmatched that they'll swing and miss at your mistakes. Again, I have never seen a Cole Hamels minor league game. He may have had pinpoint accuracy there or he may have been Rick Vaughn for all I know. I'm just saying that a low bb/9 or hr/9 in the minors, while usually due to good command, can also be due to overmatched hitters unable to handle a pitcher's stuff.