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Another Just for Fun Study - Expected Winning % for SP's

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Another Just for Fun Study - Expected Winning % for SP's

Postby The Loveable Losers » Thu Jul 27, 2006 4:08 pm

This is a really basic one. I took the offensive stats for each team through July 20th (the last time I got the totals into Excel) and took each pitchers' performance through July 26th. I took the top 115 starting pitcher in innings pitched and tossed in Clemens just for fun. I used each pitcher's actual runs given up per game (era but using runs instead of earned runs) and each teams' actual offensive performance so obviously a team or pitcher that varies from that average will vary from the listed winning percentage the rest of the way. I also did not factor in strength of schedule, bullpen support or any other factors that could affect winning percentage for pitchers. This is just a quick and dirty look at which pitchers are most likely to post the most wins the rest of the way.

You can read the full results here but here are the top 20 pitchers in expected winning percentage along with that percentage:

1 liriano,francis 0.848
2 verlander,justi 0.769
3 carpenter,chris 0.748
4 webb,brandon 0.733
5 halladay,roy 0.731
6 contreras,jose 0.721
7 santana,johan 0.704
8 schilling,curt 0.697
9 mussina,mike 0.689
10 smoltz,john 0.679
11 clemens,roger 0.679
12 penny,brad 0.673
13 arroyo,bronson 0.672
14 bonderman,jerem 0.666
15 martinez,pedro 0.655
16 johnson,josh 0.652
17 schmidt,jason 0.652
18 lackey,john 0.647
19 wang,chien-ming 0.631
20 oswalt,roy 0.621

I think the names that really jumps out at me off that list are Johnson (.652) and Wang (.631). All the other guys are valued fairly highly by people. Johnson and Wang could be very good plays for wins down the stretch though and they might come cheaper than some other options off the list. Johnson I seriously question as he may not keep up his great pitching (the only reason he made the list with the Marlins backing him up). Wang on the other hand has the Yankees offense behind him...not a bad way to get a few wins.
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Postby PlayingWithFire » Thu Jul 27, 2006 4:18 pm

29 jennings,jason 0.589 Colorado Rockies 6 9 143.2 140 63 59 51 100 0 0 0 14 14 21 21 2 0 3 3 3.95 4.72


I'm still laughing. As a JJ owner, he's just unlucky, math just can't explain it :-D
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Thu Jul 27, 2006 4:23 pm

PlayingWithFire wrote:29 jennings,jason 0.589 Colorado Rockies 6 9 143.2 140 63 59 51 100 0 0 0 14 14 21 21 2 0 3 3 3.95 4.72


I'm still laughing. As a JJ owner, he's just unlucky, math just can't explain it :-D


That's like Clemens with the shutouts against the last two years. :D
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Postby Tavish » Thu Jul 27, 2006 5:19 pm

Looks like the Pyhtag method matches up fairly decently with the historical comparison method that BP uses here.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Thu Jul 27, 2006 5:30 pm

Tavish wrote:Looks like the Pyhtag method matches up fairly decently with the historical comparison method that BP uses here.


Wow...I have to hand it to BP for having a nice little alphabet soup there. :) Looks like good information though...one of these days I'm gonna have to subscribe there.
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