The Loveable Losers wrote:The problem comes in when you examine prospects based on their absolute ceilings that only 1% of them could ever hope to reach while at the same time evaluating major league players based on their actual production. You'll end up with a roster of all minor league players if that's the criteria you use to examine players since all of the top prospects have great potential - otherwise they wouldn't be top prospects. You have to balance that though by their likelihood of reaching those targets.
There's nothing wrong with throwing out numbers like 40/40 with Delmon Young. I just wouldn't call it something as ambiguous as a 'ceiling' since there's a likely ceiling (probably 30/40 in Young's case) and a pie in the sky ceiling (40/50) that he has very little chance of seeing. Even 30/40 isn't anywhere near guaranteed but it's more in line with what people usually consider as a ceiling - the best performance that the player is likely to be capable of reaching.
I understand where you're coming from and appreciate that rather than coming at me with, "You're crazy and overvaluing prospects way too much, " or "you think your opinion is fact!' you stated something intelligent and well thought out.
I realize 40/40 is ridiculous but I believe he can do it, with more than a 1% chance. His power is the question, but at his size and strength, with his bat speed and ability to hit, I think he has a good chance of cracking 40 at least a few times in his career. At 18, he hit 25 homers in A ball at a park that is not a hitters or pitchers park (I believe) and then as a 19 at AA hit 20 in 330 ABs. He had 59 XBH between AA and AAA last year as a 19!
I'm not sure if his decrease in power production this year is because of his suspension or because he feels he should be at TB already, but the power is definitely there.
I didn't think there was anything wrong with what I said, at least not to warrant the criticism and complaints that I've received. I was simply stating a ceiling that is a lofty projection yet still attainable for the young guy.
Chris Young has seen slightly declining speed as his power has improved. He probably won't steal more than 15 or so very much, in my opinion, but he has legit power potential.
C: Pierzynski 1B: Pujols 2B: Altuve 3B: Miggy SS: HanRam OF (x3): CarGo, M. Bourn, D. Jennings UTIL (x2): E. Encarnacion, C. Hart BN: Cuddyer, C. Ross, J. Montero
rmande09 wrote: I understand where you're coming from and appreciate that rather than coming at me with, "You're crazy and overvaluing prospects way too much, " or "you think your opinion is fact!' you stated something intelligent and well thought out.
theres no need to say all that. im glad someone did because i wasnt spending the time to say that. i never "flipped" out once. you're the one coming out all crazy with your nonsense (yes, its nonsense) you always come out and state your opinion which is good. i like opinionated people. but your posts always just start to lean toward you thinking your opinion is fact. thats not the way it should be. you say one thing, then backtrack, and say its a fact, etc.... i didnt mean anything personal by any of this, but you continue to try to come at me in the third person. to be someone in your "position" where you claim you, are a professional(which i respect by the way, never said i didnt, and all i did was ask why you are keeping what you do a secret. thats all) you sure dont come across that way
loveable losers, thanks for saying everything i was thinking, i guess i shoulda came out and spelled it out for "some people" (see how annoying it is)
Uh, Snakes, again, that was not directed at you. I like you man - you make sigs for me haha
I'm used to presenting my opinion strongly, and the best way (I've been taught) is to present it, more or less, as a fact. You don't sell your pinions with, "I think," or, "I believe." I guess that's why I come across as strongly as I do.
And not to start the argument back up, but I never, ever backtracked. Show me where I did. Nor did I ever spout out "nonsense," though that is my opinion.
C: Pierzynski 1B: Pujols 2B: Altuve 3B: Miggy SS: HanRam OF (x3): CarGo, M. Bourn, D. Jennings UTIL (x2): E. Encarnacion, C. Hart BN: Cuddyer, C. Ross, J. Montero
uptons ceiling is not 20 hrs.
more like 30+
im not saying he will hit 30+but
20 is verrrrryyyyyy
conservative..
look at it this way.
BJ is a disgusting glove right?
well, he wouldnt sniff the bigs if he wasnt such a
offensive threat. bj will make it as a big leaguer despite basicaly being blind in the field.
tampa has bended over backwards for bj and will continue to do so..
wheres the love for MR Alex Rios?
this kids a stud and hes only 25.. he may have gotten up to 30-30 this season if not for the injury.. he hits in toronto so big home runs should be in store, and he has tons of speed.. i dont see 30-30 too far out of reach..
Guys that I think are more 4-cat hitters, that have a chance to be 5-cat hitters:
Rios (if the keep letting him run), Milledge (if his power comes around), Pie (if he progresses), Gordon (if he keeps running), C. Gonzalez (if he doesn't get to big and works on how to steal better), C. Young (if he can keep his avg up)
You could probably put Tabata in there also, but I decided to leave 17 year olds off of it.
Last edited by hybrid on Thu Jul 27, 2006 4:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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by Amazing Oopah » Wed Jul 26, 2006 5:11 pm 
(see how annoying it is) 
![:-]](./images/smilies/smirk.gif "Scottie")
