I think the Forecaster has it about right -- about 3.60ERA from here on out, which gives him about 2.60 for the season. Sounds reasonable. Just as the second/third time around a lineup, BA/ERAs rise the same can be said for second/third time around the league.
The brother thing.... I'm sure Willie Mays had a brother who couldn't cut it in the show either. I don't think there is all that much you can extrapolate from Jeff to Jered, other than perhaps that he's genetically blessed perhaps to not have injury issues. They both throw with similiar motions, though Jered hides the ball better, and Jeff has pitched every 5th day for the last 7 years.
The major difference is, Jered is consistent and Jeff isn't. Jered has a focussed machine-like demeanor on the field and Jeff tend to get too emotional and that makes him usually get in trouble.
Jered's "tendinitis" was rumored to be (A) made up to publicly justify the two miinor leaguers we brought up for starts last week. The Angels GM is trying to deal and he was showcasing those two pitchers for other GMs.
(B) Jered was drafted two years ago and held out till just before the last draft, thus, he didn't pitch any games last year, and the Angels are reluctant to put 200 plus innnings on Jered's arm this season, and his "tendinitis" happened to coincide with the AS break, so he he a good long break in between starts.
Scouts make mistakes... Emmitt Smith was I think the 21st player taken in his draft because he wasn't deemed fast enough to be a speedy tailback and too small to be a power runner, Scottie Pippen was a 2nd round draft pick.
With Weaver, they assumed his great stats in college were a mirage, because he didn't have an out pitch. What they didn't see was that every pitch he had was an out pitch.
In fantasy baseball, you can never go wrong by remembering that young pitchers are young pitchers, and will almost invariably have trouble at a certain point.
Never be blinded by a blistering start. Remember at this time last year how people were saying that FHer is different, and that he defintely definitely definitely will be the first kid since Gooden to hit the ground running and never look back? Well that didn't work out. There were also a number of people arguing that Duke was can't miss as well after he started out just as hot as Weaver.
Weaver will almost certainly be a good fantasy pitcher over the long run, but Teahen may be more prescient than you would think and will probably be some speedbumps.
Wow johnsamo, those are some awesome scouting reports. It sounds like you've watched a lot of Jered. I've been looking to sell high on him due to the fact that he had to come down, but I think that I'm gonna hang on to him, thanks to your comments.
I think it's very important to back up your arguments with fact, and you've done that very well, as opposed to those seeing Jered as a flash in the pan. I am now officially on the Jered Weaver bandwagon.
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Don't want to go off topic, but King Felix IS everything the hype said he was... The Mariners just have a leash on him so that he can develop as a pitcher and not just a thrower and learn to locate his less nasty stuff. Once he gets that down, the leash comes off, but since he'll know how to pitch, he won't need to throw the nasty stuff so much and wear out his arm....
They're trying to avoid the Cary Wood/ Gooden syndrome where they just threw their arms out to early.
They're trying to do a reverse Pedro. Pedro used to be a thrower who had nasty stuff, now he's a pitcher who gets by more on change of speed and location. If the plan works and he's a good pitcher who also has light out pitches, he'll be unbelieveably good. And remember, he's barely 20.