Having good starting pitchers is nothing but LUCK? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Having good starting pitchers is nothing but LUCK?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby markj11 » Wed Jul 26, 2006 12:05 pm

hayseed wrote:my strategy for next season is going to be to grab one stud SP to anchor the staff, then just take late round fliers and waiver wire material. I grabbed Pedro and Carpenter early this season, which I love having them, but I'd rather have another big bat instead of both. The rest of my staff consists of: Verlander (WW), Je. Weaver (WW), Bedard (WW), Burnett (WW). As you can see, there are always plenty of fantasy goldmines that arise during the season. Next year, I'm grabbing that one stud SP in the 2nd or 3rd then loading up on hitting until the teens.


If you have read my other posts in this thread you will see that is exactly what I am getting away from after grabbing my Ace, Peavy, in the 3rd this year. Verlander will be my first SP in the 8th. But when I look at the bats taken in the 8th+ this year it makes me wonder: M. Holliday, Giambi, Morneau, Fielder, Hall, Atkins, Thome, Garciaparra, Renteria, Weeks, Rolen, Glaus, Roberts, Ordonez, Patterson, Dye.

Oh well, I guess you never know and I did do the right thing this year by taken Peavy.
I ain't askin' nobody for nothin, If I can't get it on my own. - Charlie Daniels
markj11
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2112
Joined: 3 Apr 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Wright here

Re: Having good starting pitchers is nothing but LUCK?

Postby TheYanks04 » Wed Jul 26, 2006 12:05 pm

Tiki Barber's Barber wrote:My Drafted SP:
3rd: Pedro martinez
5th: Carlos Zambrano
9th: Danny Haren
11th: Cliff Lee
12th: Brett Myers
14th: Oliver Perez (dropped)
19th: Javier Vazquez
22nd: Matt Cain
Total Roto Points of ERA + WHIP + Ks + Ws = 24.5

League Leader's Drafted SP:
8th: Barry Zito
10th: Brandon Webb
13th: Kevin Millwood
21st: Kenny Rogers
22nd: Vicente Padilla
23rd: Matt Clement (dropped)
Total Roto Points of ERA + WHIP + Ks + Ws = 45

This league leader checks in on his team about once every week. He doesn't bench his SPs when they have bad matchups, yet his ERA and WHIP lead the league. For instance, today he had Vicente Padilla starting against the White Sox, and Padilla gives up 1 ER on 3 hits, 8 Ks. I don't get it, this guy drafted mostly bums when compared to whom I drafted, yet they give him great outings every time they go out! I can't explain it other than LUCK!!



There is much to the assertion that luck determines a pitching staff (at least from the draft point of view). It is why many profess a hitters first philosophy and abhore keeping pitchers in keeper leagues. The number of so-called Aces that turn into complete busts year to year is shocking in comparison to the number of star hitters that do the same. And every year you see these guys come out of nowhere on the pitching side...Bronson Aroroyo...you just have to be kidding me. Papelbon as a top closer...again you really can't be serious. And if we talk closers we are talking about almost a 50% turnover rate year to year. Turnbow is the latest disaster to hit keeper leagues on guys who kept a closer.

This year alone we have seen Peavy, Sheets, Harden, Prior, Burnett. Hudson, Mulder and Felix Hernandez all become total and complete busts. All were either highly rated or considered decent coming in though some obviously had serious red flags associated with them. Add in Pedro and his usual DL stint.

And who has stepped up...Glavine, Arroyo, Verlander, Liriano, Jeff Weaver, Penny, Rogers until recently, Bonderman, Josh Johnson, etc. Last year Schilling was total garbage...this year he is decent again. One year Oliver Perez is the next coming, the next he is in AAA. Pettitte last season was a stud...this year he is a scrub.

Hitters are not this unreliable. At least not usually. Obviously there are exceptions like Beltran last season and Tex this year to go along with some others like Thome last season and Chavez this season who get hit with injuries and play through them. But generally the only SPs I really trust to perform when picking them are Santana and Zambrano. I might add in Halladay, Smoltz, and maybe Carpenter. Everyone else is either too injury prone (Pedro and the like) or too inconsisent year to year. I can rattle off a least 30-40 hitters that one usually considers money in the bank though.
TheYanks04
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero


Posts: 9531
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby perlick29 » Wed Jul 26, 2006 12:18 pm

This is why threads that NHsportsfan, PWF, and myself have become very important. I made the samw mistake as man by drafting pitchers too high. So I scour the waiver wire for guys who will make a difference, and low and behold it led me too Scott Olsen several weeks back, Ted Lilly a couple months ago, and Nate Robertson. If it wasn't for those guys I'd be dead in the water.

It's not too late to find these guys by the way, so maybe check out our threads if you haven't already in the who to start/bench section. It's a shameless plug I know but it's where you find out that guys like Jamie Moyer give incredible value if you simply start him at home.
Image
Forget the man crush. I drop what I'm doing to watch Zack Greinke pitch.
perlick29
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
EditorCafeholicCafe WriterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerCafecasterPick 3 Weekly WinnerSweet 16 SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 4810
Joined: 10 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: praising the almighty Baseball Prospectus

Postby Amazinz » Wed Jul 26, 2006 3:10 pm

markj11 wrote:
hayseed wrote:my strategy for next season is going to be to grab one stud SP to anchor the staff, then just take late round fliers and waiver wire material. I grabbed Pedro and Carpenter early this season, which I love having them, but I'd rather have another big bat instead of both. The rest of my staff consists of: Verlander (WW), Je. Weaver (WW), Bedard (WW), Burnett (WW). As you can see, there are always plenty of fantasy goldmines that arise during the season. Next year, I'm grabbing that one stud SP in the 2nd or 3rd then loading up on hitting until the teens.


If you have read my other posts in this thread you will see that is exactly what I am getting away from after grabbing my Ace, Peavy, in the 3rd this year. Verlander will be my first SP in the 8th. But when I look at the bats taken in the 8th+ this year it makes me wonder: M. Holliday, Giambi, Morneau, Fielder, Hall, Atkins, Thome, Garciaparra, Renteria, Weeks, Rolen, Glaus, Roberts, Ordonez, Patterson, Dye.

Oh well, I guess you never know and I did do the right thing this year by taken Peavy.

Hayseed's strategy is basically the way I play. There is nothing wrong with taking one stud early. Peavy was a bad pick this year obviously but like someone above said it was the right pick. Nothing wrong with changing you strategy but don't do it because a pick blew up in your face. Happens to everyone.
Image
Maine has a good swing for a pitcher but on anything that moves, he has no chance. And if it's a fastball, it has to be up in the zone. Basically, the pitcher has to hit his bat. - Mike Pelfrey
Amazinz
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly WinnerSweet 16 SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 18800
Joined: 16 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: in Canada, toughening up figure skaters

Previous

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Infegosse and 8 guests

cron
Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact