Having good starting pitchers is nothing but LUCK? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Having good starting pitchers is nothing but LUCK?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby markj11 » Mon Jul 24, 2006 1:48 pm

bleach168 wrote:
1-9 the list is pretty good. RJ and Peavy have pitched well this season but have been unlucky. Sheets has been injured since pre-season which was why you shouldn't have drafted him that high in the first place. The rest of the top 9 have been pure quality.

10-20 though looks pretty random and very ugly.


I don't think Peavy should be considered unlucky or defended anymore.
his last 9 starts:
1W 5L 7.10ERA 1.60WHIP 41ER in 52 innings. All his Rs have been ERs.
I ain't askin' nobody for nothin, If I can't get it on my own. - Charlie Daniels
markj11
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2112
Joined: 3 Apr 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Wright here

Postby Doughhead » Mon Jul 24, 2006 1:56 pm

I think the point is less about luck than it is about volatility. With few exceptions, the top hitters usually hit as expected and avoid injury as well. With notable exceptions like Abreu and Tex, the best hitters usually don't disappoint (the list is huge for good hitters who have played up to expectations: Pujols, Hafner, Ortiz, Manny, Wright, etc., etc...) The disappointing ones are guys like Delgado and A-Rod and they aren't that bad. Also, Derrek Lee is the only top notch guy (that I can think of) who has had an extended DL stay.

The same can't be said for starting pitchers. For one thing, injuries are much more of a factor for this group (and probably always will be). Top 10 guys like Sheets, Prior, and Harden have missed the majority of the season and others, like Pedro and Oswalt have missed time as well. Other aces going into the season (like Peavy, Felix, Buehrle, and Willis) have fallen far below the high expectations of teh managers who had to draft them in the first few rounds.

As a guy who counted on Sheets and Patterson to be his #1 and #2 pitchers, I know the crapshoot SPs can be. My two best starters have been Lackey and Capuano, who I drafted in the second-last round and scooped off the FA list, respectively.

In the future, I will be drafting batters early and often and leaving the guesswork of SPs till later. It's just common sense I think. In my shallow league, guys like Liriano, Verlander, Bonderman, Jered Weaver, Clemens, Capuano, Arroyo, Rogers, Penny, Ervin Santana, and Bedard have all been added for free off the wire. That's a pretty good rotation if you could scoop up a number of those guys. If anything, having weak pitching coming out of the draft allows you the flexibility to act on breakout arms.

By comparison, rank the best 1B in the game; or the best 2B or OF. I'll bet your current rankings are fairly similar to the ones you compiled at the beginning of the year. The same simply can't be said for starting pitching. In addition, top end bats retain their value for longer than SPs. I think you'd have an easier team getting a good return on Teixeira than you would on Peavy.

I wouldn't even necessarily subscribe to the "get one ace" theory, because at the beginning of the year, Sheets or Peavy could have been that ace. Next year, I won't make the same mistakes again. I won't be rolling the dice on pitchers on draft day.
DOUGHHEAD
Doughhead
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 4368
Joined: 6 Nov 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby markj11 » Mon Jul 24, 2006 2:07 pm

Doughhead wrote:I wouldn't even necessarily subscribe to the "get one ace" theory, because at the beginning of the year, Sheets or Peavy could have been that ace. Next year, I won't make the same mistakes again. I won't be rolling the dice on pitchers on draft day.


I totally agree, my best pitchers are mostly from the WW with the exception of Lackey(13th) that was my second SP selected after Peavy(3rd). Heres a few proven bats I missed out on by taking Peavy:
Beltran, C. Lee, Hafner, A. Jones, Berkman and Sizemore.
I ain't askin' nobody for nothin, If I can't get it on my own. - Charlie Daniels
markj11
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2112
Joined: 3 Apr 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Wright here

Postby The Loveable Losers » Mon Jul 24, 2006 2:15 pm

This definitely depends on the league depth and quality of competition. If you're in a Yahoo public league then by all means draft 9 or 10 position guys at the top of the draft and wait on pitching if that floats your boat as there's likely to be a lot of good pitching on the waivers. But for those in deeper more challenging leagues a lot of these guys are going to be snatched up at the first sign of any upside. You may get a breakout guy or two but not enough to sustain a pitching staff.
The Loveable Losers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 7290
Joined: 30 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Cubs Win!!! Cubs Win!!!

Postby oukurt » Mon Jul 24, 2006 2:17 pm

Make notes of of the Capuanos of the world that make a splash the year before with little fanfare. Use those notes during next years draft and take guys like this late. Also study the prospects. Take a flier on a guy with huge upside like Liriano a round or 2 earlier that his ADP to make sure you get him. Mix those with your other pitchers and you a solid pitching staff.
Don't waste late round picks on has beens. Use those picks for big upside guys.
Simple advise, but is has worked for me most years since I have been playing fantasy baseaball.
oukurt
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 596
Joined: 9 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Owen Field/Norman, OK

Postby ukrneal » Mon Jul 24, 2006 2:26 pm

With pitchers, I think it's all about having a strategy and having really gone through the pitchers to decide which you like and which you don't. For example (using the lsit that was posted), picking top pitchers can work if you're prepared. I had dropped (or moved way down, so as to mean the same thing) entirely from my list injured pitchers (or likely to be injured): so Prior, Wood, Harden, Sheets, and Pedro. THen I exclude (push way down) pitchers I just don't trust to be consistent: Colon. Then I drop (down the list) pitchers that don't have a track record (2-3 years, unless they are brought into the league like Liriano and Johan): Willis. Felix, Peavy. That leaves Johan, Oswalt, Carpenter, RJ, Zambrano, Halladay, Smoltz, Schmidt, Pettitte (who I had ranked lower anyway), Buehrle, Webb, Zito.

So I might have missed out on a few: Pedro, for example. But I have significantly improved my risk. ANd sure, not everyone left on that list has played well, but I feel I signifacntly improve my chances with this type of approach. And because some of the risky players have perfermed poorly this year, they will drop down to a place that I might actually consider taking them.
ukrneal
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 2322
Joined: 29 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby roninmedia » Mon Jul 24, 2006 3:14 pm

:-° I laid some massive goose eggs in my draft.

Cliff Lee (6th) !+), was I on drugs that day?
John Smoltz (8th) :-B
Trevor Hoffman (9th) ;-7
Mark Mulder (10th) :~(
Chris Capuano (14th) :-D
Jon Garland (19th) :-/
Brad Penny (20th) ;-D
Jake Westbrook (21st) :*)
Bruce Chen (22nd) :-[ :,-(

But through moves, I managed to add Brian Fuentes, Akinori Otsuka, Andy Pettitte, Tom Glavine, Takashi Saito and Scott Kazmir and getting rid of the garbage. Papelbon, Liriano, and Weaver all got by me. :-t

The draft is half the game.
roninmedia
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
CafeholicEagle Eye
Posts: 1647
Joined: 16 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby johnsamo » Mon Jul 24, 2006 6:59 pm

The more Lima you go, the more luck becomes important... To me, the key is, watching games, seeing how a pitcher pitches.... And run support and a good bullpen are crucial...

Kenny Rogers in in Dreamland
Carlos Zambrano is in hell

Zambrano can pitch circles around Rogers.
johnsamo
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1826
Joined: 30 Mar 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Los Angeles

Postby Amazinz » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:26 pm

Lackey and Webb were definitely not LIMA pitchers this year. I thought Webb might be but it seems everyone and their mother saw this coming so his price went out of LIMA range.

I have to disagree with johnsamo. The purpose of the LIMA plan is specifically to guard against the volatile value of pitchers. When choices go bad it doesn't hurt you as much since you paid very little and should have the excess offense to make the moves to patch your rotation. It's definitely my favorite roto strategy and I'm normally very good at it although I should add the disclaimer that I pretty much crapped the bed this year. ;-)
Image
Maine has a good swing for a pitcher but on anything that moves, he has no chance. And if it's a fastball, it has to be up in the zone. Basically, the pitcher has to hit his bat. - Mike Pelfrey
Amazinz
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly WinnerSweet 16 SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 18800
Joined: 16 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: in Canada, toughening up figure skaters

Postby markj11 » Wed Jul 26, 2006 9:52 am

Now that I have decided not to go after SPs in next years draft, my league allows us to keep a rookie by giving up your 8th round. I have Verlander, Kinlser and Hermida and up to this point was planning on keeping Verlander but may have change that. Hermida was ranked as 12-15 round pick last year, will he be worth an 8th next year?
I ain't askin' nobody for nothin, If I can't get it on my own. - Charlie Daniels
markj11
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2112
Joined: 3 Apr 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Wright here

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: buiviopaufamp and 11 guests

cron
Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Monday, Sep. 1
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Philadelphia at Atlanta
(1:10 pm)
NY Mets at Miami
(1:10 pm)
indoors
Boston at Tampa Bay
(1:10 pm)
indoors
Minnesota at Baltimore
(1:35 pm)
Pittsburgh at St. Louis
(2:15 pm)
Milwaukee at Chi Cubs
(2:20 pm)
Seattle at Oakland
(4:05 pm)
Detroit at Cleveland
(4:05 pm)
San Francisco at Colorado
(4:10 pm)
Arizona at San Diego
(4:10 pm)
Texas at Kansas City
(8:10 pm)
Washington at LA Dodgers
(8:10 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact