I agree with everything that's been said here...starting pitching just isn't as stable once you get past the top 10 guys..and even then luck filters into it.
If you look back at the pre-season rankings you can learn quite a bit
I'm going to use a site that someone posted on here...I believe they made it so I'm sure they're kicking around the board here somewhere. It was a great resource...they took and averaged together multiple rankings for assorted sources and made a master list.
Top 20 ranked SPs
How many of those guys would you still consider top 20 material?
I think every fantasy team needs a stable ace...after that, hit the waivers and look for the low WHIPs
As for Padilla - I picked him off of waivers 2 starts ago in a 12 team league, his split stats are flat out weird, lefties now hit 297 against him (before yesterday it was over 300) and righties hit 197 against him...to me, WHIP is the huge thing, with lefties it's a painful 1.79.....righties a .87 on the season...maybe he blows up, maybe he keeps up the weird splits..