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Chris Duncan's future

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Chris Duncan's future

Postby teddyballgamemvp » Sun Jul 23, 2006 8:31 am

So Taguchi is a FA at the end of the year, and Duncan has been stealing starts in LF from him-- perhaps permanently ousting him from the role as starter. Duncan is, of course, the son of Cards pitching coach Dave Duncan, so there is a bias in his favor by La Russa to get him ABs as long as he produces in any way. Duncan is 25 now and starting to hit his professional stride-- hitting in front of the NL MVP doesn't hurt.

Quote:
"It's been impressive," manager Tony La Russa said. "There are a lot of people who are high on him in the organization, and I am one of them."


And La Russa likes Duncan's skills at driving the ball from the 2-hole...

Quote:
"You are seeing more and more clubs adopt that approach and bat guys [No.2] who can drive the ball a little bit and do some things versus a bat control guy," Cardinals general manager Walt Jocketty said. "I think you may see more of that in the future, too."


I could use another guy qualified at 1B like Duncan is, if it's likely that he'll start (particulary in front of Pujols) for the next few years.

Any thoughts on him as a keeper?
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Sun Jul 23, 2006 1:23 pm

my thoughts:

he will get exposed over a larger sample size. i think he will basically be a .260-.275 batter over the long haul. although he hit a homer off a lefty yesterday i think ultimately he would be better off sitting against most lefties. his plate discipline is somewhat lacking at the moment. however, i have been impressed with his hustle and willingness to learn. he knows what he needs to do and is working hard to adjust.

i dont think he would make a good keeper unless its a super deep league. he isnt assured of starting next year. heck, jocketty keeps mentioning he is looking to add a middle of the order type outfielder so its not certain he will even be starting the rest of this year. his low salary works in his favor though. the cards will need to overhaul the pitching staff next year and thats gonna cost quite a bit of cash. also, he is no sure thing to be hitting #2, although hitting behind rolen and edmonds isnt exactly a bad thing either. edgar renterria put together some good seasons hitting there.

if you are looking for a long term 1b he may not be the answer. he will only get games there if pujols is injured, which is hopefully never again.

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Postby teddyballgamemvp » Sun Jul 23, 2006 1:45 pm

My needs aren't really long-term as far as 1B. I'm mainly hoping he starts in LF for the Cards next year and puts up a nice SLG, with 1B eligibility, with the possibility that he serves as a back-up for Pujols and possible keeps his eligibility in 2008, but that's not critical. He hit 21 homers last year in Memphis. He had a .470 SLG for both '04 and '05 and he seems to have pop against major league pitching. With regular ABs, I'd think he could hit 20 homers with a .275 BA. Is that a ridiculous projection? It seems the Cards FO thinks highly of him and it seems the Cards are more than prepared to give him the LF job for the rest of the year, but maybe I'm off on believing that. A future OF of Duncan, Rasmus, and Encarnacion in 2008/2009.
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Sun Jul 23, 2006 2:12 pm

teddyballgamemvp wrote:With regular ABs, I'd think he could hit 20 homers with a .275 BA. Is that a ridiculous projection?


no, that seems about right.

the job is probably his for the rest of the year as long as he keeps hitting.
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Postby teddyballgamemvp » Sun Jul 23, 2006 3:12 pm

j_d_mcnugent wrote:
teddyballgamemvp wrote:With regular ABs, I'd think he could hit 20 homers with a .275 BA. Is that a ridiculous projection?


no, that seems about right.

the job is probably his for the rest of the year as long as he keeps hitting.


I think he'll keep driving the ball for XBH because there is a history of him having power as a skill/aptitude (partially from his 6' 5" frame). I'm sure they don't expect him to hit .349 like in the last 3 weeks.
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Sun Jul 23, 2006 3:26 pm

exactly. power isnt the question, its whether he can hit for avg/obp.

if he hits .275avg/.350obp he will play. however, some think he will just end up being this guy: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/D/Rob-Deer.shtml
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Postby kcs261 » Sun Jul 23, 2006 7:51 pm

The Cardinals really have no other options, unless they trade Reyes or Wainright -- which they absolutely must not do. So...we are going to see what he can do. I'm glad. At least he has upside, compared to So Taguchi who is nothing more than a bench player. If he doesn't pan out, he doesn't pan out and we can assess next year what direction to seek in LF.
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