rich harden..zach day.. j.a. dickey? which young'in to use?

[sinicalypse]

at this time of the season i usually like to have a couple young guys mixed in there to spit out some quality innings as they try to prove themselves and earn contracts.

i was liking the rhole rich harden angle, but the wheels have fallen off and this baltimore game looks to be pretty pivotal in telling us just what he's going to be like over hte rest of the season.

so now i'm back to looking at semi-sleeper superexpo zach day. he ended up getting hurt around the end of may, and the wheels feel off of him.. 6 ERs a couple'a times... then he came back, got pounded by the braves, but over the next ~5-6 starts has given up 2 ER or less in every single start, including starts against the cardinals, giants, rockies, diamondbacks, and dodgers. so now i'm wondering, do i give him another go?

harden has a start tomorrow against the orioles, zach day has a start against hte phillies (@ montreal).. other starters.. RA dickey against the royals (last start was a CG shutout, he had as ave a couple'a days earlier, but prior to that was a 2-3 ER pitcher over ~5 starts for a solid offensive team) garret stephenson is going against the cubs... so in an ideal world i'd love to jump in with zach day and not look back.. but i could see him giving up 4 to the phillies.. and in a league where losses count and i'm still kind of in an ERA race (3.19 leader, 3.42 me in 2nd).. i'm just weary.

harden's currently on my team, but he's not starting tonight. the rest of the staff:

SP: mark prior, dontrelle willis, randy wolf (so not starting tongiht against the 'spos)johan santana, rich harden
RP: rivera, foulke, looper, julio, reitsma (5 saves last week and a 3 game set against those streaking brewers? why not?)

h0lla.

[demoflauchy]

day

[Madison]

I wouldn't be comfortable starting Day against the Phillies.

Something to add is that Thomson is 7-1 in his last 8 decisions.

[pkarr5000]

thomson might be going to another team. bt2n made a point of saying it so many times

[thehat]

I like Day's chances against Philly. Montreal has been tremendous at home all season (both homes, actually) and Philly has been hideous on the road of late.

[jdh]

SP: mark prior, dontrelle willis, randy wolf (so not starting tongiht against the 'spos)johan santana, rich harden
RP: rivera, foulke, looper, julio, reitsma (5 saves last week and a 3 game set against those streaking brewers? why not?)

Essentially, you have one rock solid sure thing in Santana, who has been lights out, hasn't pitched much this season because he only recently joined the rotation so he's fresh, and the Twins have a ridiculously easy schedule the rest of the way. The rest of your staff has some question marks.

Prior has been overworked most of the year by Baker, and could hit a wall never having pitching this many innings before, but probably will be fine because his boneheaded baserunning injury probably shut him down long enough to save him from Dusty's abuse. Wolf seems to have really tired and tailed off, so I'd be concerned about whether he has enough left in the tank. I think Wolf will eventually recover though, and I would definitely start him against a weak offensive team like the Expos.

Willis is the one I'd be most concerned about. He has an ERA over 7 since the all star break and is clearly either running out of gas or his deceptive delivery is rapidly being figured out. Willis is a guy that you need to move off your roster, preferably by trading him to someone by talking up the hype and the decent stats to this point. I see his ERA rising to over 4.00 by the end of the year, and he will probably continue pitching like waiver material the rest of the way, as he has for the last 2 months. If you can't trade Willis, I would drop him because he is pretty useless and will only wreck your ERA at this point.

I also have Harden and am benching him against the O's tomorrow to see how he does. If it's not a dominant start, I will dump him. I wouldn't trust RA Dickey given the park he pitches in. Day might be a decent option, but he walks more than he strikes out, which is a recipe for disaster. Yes, he is a sinkerballer in the mould of Kevin Brown and Brandon Webb, but he doesn't have the same dominance, which leads me to believe he's a fluke ready to blow up at any point. That's the problem with rookie starters, is that they are always a risk to tire out or meltdown at any given time, as we've seen recently with Harden and Willis. What veteran options are available on your waiver wire? There probably will be a veteran pitcher out there who started the year poorly, got dumped, but since has come into his own and performed much better. Examples would be Glavine, Leiter, and Radke. I would much rather have one of those guys than Dickey, Day or Harden. Veteran pitchers tend to strenghten down the stretch, while rookies tend to fade.