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Johnson, Olsen, Reyes, Cain - TORN

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Johnson, Olsen, Reyes, Cain - TORN

Postby rmande09 » Wed Jul 19, 2006 4:53 pm

Alright. I'm in a keeper league and for rookie pitchers who use their eligibility up, they have an automatic two years of free keeper status. So I have Verlander on my squad, and I'll have him for free next year and the year after ('08). I also own Scott Olsen, Anthony Reyes, and Matt Cain. I could trade one of them and a prospect (not a top prospect) for Josh Johnson. So, the question I ask you is to rank those four guys in order from best to worst for the next two seasons.

I know Johnson has a 2.50 ERA and a good K rate, but his walks are high. Olsen has the same K rate, less walks, and lower WHIP, yet a higher ERA. Cain has ridiculous stuff and is only 21, so he'll probably continue to develop his control - he could easily be a Cy Young candidate once he can harness his stuff. And Reyes has good control, good stuff, and pitches for a good team. So... What should I do?

All I know is that I feel Matt Cain will be the most useful over the next two seasons, by far. From there out, I have no clue between the other three. Give me your thoughts!
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Postby Galt » Wed Jul 19, 2006 6:11 pm

I would rank them performance-wise:

Verlander
Reyes
Olsen
Johnson
Cain

I HATE Matt Cain. He walks way too many people. He Ks a lot, but his walks are insanely high so he'll have an unattractive WHIP, and he gives up a ton of homers so he'll also have a high ERA. Plus, after this year, when SF lose all of their free agents, they'll likely be one of the worst teams in baseball and he won't win any games.

Olsen and Johnson are fairly close this year and are the same age, but I'd take Olsen absolutely. Johnson is playing above his head this year; Olsen has had better numbers in the minors, and he's a lefty. Olsen's K/9 and BB/9 numbers were better than Johnson's in the minors.

Reyes is head and shoulders above anyone else you listed aside from Verlander. His team is much better and will continue to be so. His numbers in both the minors and majors is better than anyone else you listed, and his K/9 and K/BB are better than anyone else. Plus, he keeps the ball on the ground and doesn't give up many homers, which is a downfall of Olsen.

If you could trade Olsen and Cain for some hitters, I'd do it in a second. Cain is sexy because he strikes out a lot of people. But it's going to take more than two years for him to refine his control. Until that happens, he's not worth owning, and Reyes is just a bit better than Olsen in pretty much every category. Better team, better ratios.
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Postby rmande09 » Wed Jul 19, 2006 11:56 pm

Interesting take on Cain. His HR/9 is less than 1, and he's in the top-third when it comes to HR/G. So the comment about the homers is completely false.

He does walk a TON of guys. However, he's 21 with electric stuff and a .220 BAA. It's very possible that he could straighten his control out sooner rather than later.

Look at Kazmir's first full season. He had a higher BB/G, MUCH higher BAA, higher WHIP, and slightly more K/G. However, his ERA was more than a run lower. Cain has not been great this year, but his ERA is slightly unlucky - it does not belong at 4.90.

I don't think he is as far off as you make it seem. He may be on a lesser team next year, but it's not exactly like the Marlins are World Series contenders, either. I think it's way too early to give up on Cain.
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Postby birdmandig » Thu Jul 20, 2006 1:29 am

I agree Cain will be great next year after his experience this season.

I have Cain and Reyes in my kepper I plan on keeping both.

Olsen is good but unless he gets traded.

Its

Reyes
Cain
>>>>
........
>>>>>
Others
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Postby MHD » Thu Jul 20, 2006 2:24 am

Matt Cain has the best stuff of all 4 guys. Not even close really. He has late movement on his fastball which allows batters to rarely make solid contact. He is more of a flyball pitcher, but I wouldn't say he gives up a ton of jacks. He has the worst defense behind him as well. He seems to pitch a lot when Barry Bonds is in left and a lot of balls drop in front of him. His change up and curveball have both come along way since the beginning of the year. The curveball is close to a plus pitch right now.

I would rank them in a keeper league as

Cain
======
Olsen
Reyes
======
Johnson

;-D
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Postby Galt » Thu Jul 20, 2006 9:58 am

You have them for two years. Kazmir was not really useful his first two years into his career, and has now just become very strong. I don't see Kazmir as a comp.

There are plenty of other guys who threw hard with no control how flamed out, certainly a lot more than the relative few like Kazmir who thrived.

Cain gave up 26 homers last year. That's a lot!

Like the home run for hitters, people get way too drunk with love for guys who can strike people out. I'd much rather have a guy who strikes out fewer batters but has much better peripherals and a better team.
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Postby PlayingWithFire » Thu Jul 20, 2006 12:21 pm

Galt wrote:You have them for two years. Kazmir was not really useful his first two years into his career, and has now just become very strong. I don't see Kazmir as a comp.

There are plenty of other guys who threw hard with no control how flamed out, certainly a lot more than the relative few like Kazmir who thrived.

Cain gave up 26 homers last year. That's a lot!

Like the home run for hitters, people get way too drunk with love for guys who can strike people out. I'd much rather have a guy who strikes out fewer batters but has much better peripherals and a better team.


His last year in Fresno could just be an abberation? He still average a hr every 10 innings in his major and minor league career, and you really can't complain about that statistic.

as to the strike out. It's one thing when you are Oliver Perez, at age 25 and still can't figure it out. It's another thing when you are 21, pitching in the majors already, and holding your own(same can't be said about Ollie) with shaky control while still has room to improve your control drastically.

And you really think Cain's control is that bad compare to the others?

Matt Cain-51bb 85k in 97.1ip-slightly more than 4.5bb/9
Josh Johnson-46bb 80k in 90.2ip-slightly more than 4.5bb/9
Olsen-42bb 85k in 96.2ip-slightly less than 4.2bb/9
Reyes-13bb 31k in 40ip-2.9bb/9ip, excellent
Verlander-35bb 75k in 117.2ip-good, but not great bb/9

Cain is the youngest of the bunch by half a year over Olsen. Stuff wise it's Cain, Olsen, Verlander and a tossup between Johnson and Reyes. With control and other intangibles considered I'd rank them.

Verlander
Cain
Olsen
Johnson(just because he's done so amazing this year, had I ranked this before the season he's far and away last)
Reyes

disclaimer: I'm higher on Olsen than most.
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Postby Galt » Thu Jul 20, 2006 1:32 pm

Ollie Perez is a comp for Cain. Sure, he may have Ollie's age 22 season next year, but he also may have Ollie's age 23 the year after that.

My major point was:

The guy has Reyes and Verlander. Both of them are MUCH better options than Cain.

Much better pitchers on much better teams.
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Postby rmande09 » Thu Jul 20, 2006 2:07 pm

Cain gave up 26 HRs at hitter-friendly Fresno. That's not awful.

Kazmir is in his second full season at the Bigs now. This is Cain's first. All the numbers from Kazmir's are comparable to Cain's. Actually, Cain's HR/G is about .25 higher, but his BAA against is notably lower, and his WHIP is lower. His BB/G is lower as well. I think some bad luck and bad defense has a lot to do with his miserable ERA.
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Postby PlayingWithFire » Thu Jul 20, 2006 2:07 pm

Galt wrote:Ollie Perez is a comp for Cain. Sure, he may have Ollie's age 22 season next year, but he also may have Ollie's age 23 the year after that.

My major point was:

The guy has Reyes and Verlander. Both of them are MUCH better options than Cain.

Much better pitchers on much better teams.


Comparing Cain to Perez is absurd. Cain is much younger and has much better control
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