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Postby PlayingWithFire » Mon Aug 07, 2006 6:46 pm

roughed up in his first start in A+ San Jose. But consider the fact that he jumped 2 level to A+ and that he didn't have his best stuff that day and he still struck out 5. It has its positives.

How does Lincecum compare to Miller and Hochevar hybrid? :-?
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Postby shortsavage » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:30 am

Lincecum struck out 10 batters, while giving up two runs on four hits and two walks in 4.2 innings this evening. He has now given up three HR in 17 innings, while compiling a 1.06 WHIP and 14.82K/9.

The Giants AA affiliate (Connecticut) still has two weeks worth of games left.

Does anyone who is more familiar with prospect promotions than I am care to wager a guess on whether or not the Giants will decide to promote him? I feel like he has shown that he is ready for the next level.


P.S. Lincecum has solidified a top 30 spot on my prospect list.
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Postby WaCougMBS » Wed Aug 23, 2006 4:44 am

PlayingWithFire wrote:How does Lincecum compare to Miller and Hochevar hybrid?


I am wondering this same thing...Any thoughts?
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Postby NatsFan10 » Wed Aug 23, 2006 8:02 am

There is no doubt Lincecum has electric stuff, but I still wouldn't be surprised if he ends up in the bullpen. He's had a solid start to his pro career thus far, but his command has always been an issue for him. He has an extremely unique delivery, almost comparable to Hideo Nomo, and that may have contributed to his effectiveness in college. He's also extremely small and has thrown a ton of innings the last three years, which is a cause for concern.

Personally, I have Hochevar and Miller ahead of Lincecum mainly because there is little doubt they will be starters in the show. Lincecum arguably has better pure stuff than either one of those guys, but right now he seems like more of a thrower than a pitcher to me.
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Postby shortsavage » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:40 am

NatsFan10 wrote:He's also extremely small and has thrown a ton of innings the last three years, which is a cause for concern.


This made me laugh a little mainly because of the wording.

I thought Lincecum was destined for a relief role when the Giants first drafted him. Seeing the numbers he has put up in the minors so far and reading more about him, now I'd be pretty surprised if San Francisco doesn't do everything within its power to make sure that this special arm ends up in their starting rotation. And he'll probably add more muscle to his frame - like Tim Hudson did - before long.

A few other "extremely small" pitchers: Pedro Martinez (5'11'' 170), Roy Oswalt (6' 170), Scott Kazmir (6'1" 170), and Hudson (6' 160).
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Postby rmande09 » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:39 am

shortsavage wrote:
NatsFan10 wrote:He's also extremely small and has thrown a ton of innings the last three years, which is a cause for concern.


This made me laugh a little mainly because of the wording.

I thought Lincecum was destined for a relief role when the Giants first drafted him. Seeing the numbers he has put up in the minors so far and reading more about him, now I'd be pretty surprised if San Francisco doesn't do everything within its power to make sure that this special arm ends up in their starting rotation. And he'll probably add more muscle to his frame - like Tim Hudson did - before long.

A few other "extremely small" pitchers: Pedro Martinez (5'11'' 170), Roy Oswalt (6' 170), Scott Kazmir (6'1" 170), and Hudson (6' 160).


With just two pitches (though they are both PLUS) and a knack for giving up the home run, it seems he could be destined for a relief role, probably as closer. I'm sure the Giants will try and get him to be a starter, and if he could add a change/split to his arsenal, that would make it easier, but that doesn't change the fact that he seems destined for arm problems because of his arm motion. It looks like it hurts, and it can't be good to do that for 200+ innings a year. His size plays into that, as his stamina could play into effect and it's possible he is "fragile." Of course, none of this is proven and it could end up being completely irrelevant. One thing stands true - it would be tough to succeed as a starting pitcher with just two pitches and control problems. See Josh Beckett.
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Postby shortsavage » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:46 am

Lincecum has always "overachieved." He's a bit of a wildcard, but his potential upside as a starting pitcher is too high to ignore.
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Postby rmande09 » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:48 am

And I know I wasn't asked for my opinion on Miller vs. Hochevar vs. Lincecum, but I'll give it anyways.

Miller has the highest ceiling among the three, and may be the most polished, though I'm certain Hochevar would give him a run for his money. Obviously a lefty who can bring it at 96 with a filthy slider would be tough to pass up.

I'd go with Hochevar second. Hochevar and Lincecum, in terms of stuff, are very similar in my opinion. Lincecum has a better fastball, though Hochevar can bring it in the mid-90s. Both have similar curveballs, 12-to-6, sharp and late, it's really tough to get much better than what they offer for their curveballs. Hochevar also has a slider that is raw but shows very good potential, and I believe I read he is working on refining his change to make it a pitch he can throw in games. That gives him three potential plus pitches, as well as a fourth pitch, compared to Lincecum's two plus pitches. Plus, Hochevar offers much better pitchability and has decent control, whereas Lincecum is sort of all over the place.

I'm curious as to how Lincecum makes it into the top 30 prospect list. Above who, exactly? I have Hughes, Bailey, Adenhart, Gallardo, An. Miller, Kershaw, Pelfrey and Garza and Hirsh in there (assuming they don't crack the limit, though I'm sure they will) before Lincecum. Hochevar is above him as well, but I don't believe he cracks the top 30. Lincecum is top 50, no doubt, but top 30 is quite a reach.
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Postby shortsavage » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:28 pm

Maybe, I'm getting too carried away too early. Lincecum's strikeouts both in college and in the minors have me thinking pretty highly of him. He's higher on my list than guys like John Danks, Gio Gonzalez, and Kevin Slowey.

Jim Callis pretty much agrees with you btw:

"He's probably closer to 50 than to 30, but that's not bad for a guy who will probably pitch about 30-40 innings this summer. As I've said many times, I really like Tim Lincecum."
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Postby NatsFan10 » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:21 pm

shortsavage wrote:
NatsFan10 wrote:He's also extremely small and has thrown a ton of innings the last three years, which is a cause for concern.


This made me laugh a little mainly because of the wording.

I thought Lincecum was destined for a relief role when the Giants first drafted him. Seeing the numbers he has put up in the minors so far and reading more about him, now I'd be pretty surprised if San Francisco doesn't do everything within its power to make sure that this special arm ends up in their starting rotation. And he'll probably add more muscle to his frame - like Tim Hudson did - before long.

A few other "extremely small" pitchers: Pedro Martinez (5'11'' 170), Roy Oswalt (6' 170), Scott Kazmir (6'1" 170), and Hudson (6' 160).


They'd be crazy not to initially try him as a starter because he would obviously be much more valuable in that role. However, I think he will end up proving he's a better fit as a dominant reliever.

I know small starters have been successful, but they are exceptions to the rule. There is overwhelming evidence that suggests, on average, larger starters hold up better during a season and in a career than starters on the small side.
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