Interesting article on DiceK's mechanics...
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... matsuzaka/
Sorry if posted already...
So what do we make of all this?
Let's try to answer the questions that I posted above?
1) How efficient is he with his mechanics?
VERY efficient and aggressive, especially with his lower body. Yes, the lead arm issue bothers me.
2) Will he keep his velocity/stuff throughout his career?
I can't only look at his mechanics to answer this one. We know how many innings he has logged in his professional career. However, if he keeps his aggressiveness and tempo, there is a good chance that he'll keep his stuff well into his career. Yes, the lead arm issue bothers me—I'll get back to this one.
3) What about potential injury risks?
All I see is potential shoulder issues. Yeah, I know, MOST (if not all) pitchers have shoulder issues at some point. I'm talking about shoulder issues that greatly contribute to decline (think Pedro Martinez).
My guess: Matsuzaka remains durable and at his A+ stuff over the next three years or so. Sometime after year three, after adding a few pounds and after the natural effects of aging, he starts slowing his body down just a tad and his velocity starts dipping. Fast forward a year or two: he has an average year while adjusting to not being able to hit 95+ mph as consistently as he used to. He starts seeing some DL time, but pitches enough innings to justify his contract. However, at the end of his contract, we will probably wonder if he will end up having the same recurring issues as Pedro. Will someone give him another four- or five-year contract after that? Probably. Will that be too many? Yup, just like Pedro.
Good luck Daisuke...