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Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP

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Postby Pokey » Thu Feb 15, 2007 7:11 pm

Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:Jim Albright based translations:
Code: Select all
Matsuzaka's translated Seibu stats, as a Yankee:

     W  L GS  IP   H HR BB   K   ERA  WHIP  K/9  K/BB 

2005 19 5 28 215 185 16 63 200  2.74  1.15  8.4  3.2
2006 17 4 25 187 156 21 39 181  2.52  1.04  8.7  4.6
Code: Select all
PECOTA translations

      HR BB   K   ERA  WHIP  K/9  K/BB 

2005  14 57 179  3.22  1.07  7.5  3.1
2006  19 45 159  3.52  1.06  7.7  3.7


Actual BABIP in Japan

2005 .275
2006 .258


Projections

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Approximate Z-Score based value for 2006, by rank of SP

ZiPS: 14th
CHONE: 12th
BP: 26th

My own: 12th

I don't know if Bill James has done a projection on Matsuzaka, but this will be a good battleground for pecota.

I'd be comfortable with taking Matsuzaka in the 6th.


FWIW, Shandler at baseball forcaster projects him to go 15-7 with a 3.46 ERA in 185 IP. 197 Ks, 51 BBs and 25 HR.

My own projection is 198 IP, 14-8, 3.52 ERA, 1.15 WHIP. 191 Ks, 58 BBs, 20 HR.
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Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Thu Feb 15, 2007 7:24 pm

Thanks ;-D Looks like he could live up to the hype, at least in year one. When do you plan on picking him? And do you plan on selling as the year goes on and hitters "adjust"? In know that could change as the season goes on, but I have ideas of selling him for a 2-3rd round player near the break.
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Postby thedude » Thu Feb 15, 2007 8:52 pm

jlm53089 wrote:*points to sig*



My offer of a cafe bet stands
"I do not think baseball of today is any better than it was 30 years ago... I still think Radbourne is the greatest of the pitchers." John Sullivan 1914-Old athletes never change.
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Postby jlm53089 » Fri Feb 16, 2007 3:27 pm

thedude wrote:
jlm53089 wrote:*points to sig*



My offer of a cafe bet stands


whats the bet?
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Postby thedude » Fri Feb 16, 2007 3:46 pm

jlm53089 wrote:
thedude wrote:
jlm53089 wrote:*points to sig*



My offer of a cafe bet stands


whats the bet?


If he doesn't starts 21 games or has an era above 5 you can choose a avatar for me (nothing offensive, maybe a d-ray av or something) for the offseason.

But if starts 21 games and has an era under 5 you can have to have a Dice-K Av for the enitire postseason and offseason.
"I do not think baseball of today is any better than it was 30 years ago... I still think Radbourne is the greatest of the pitchers." John Sullivan 1914-Old athletes never change.
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Postby Another Blown Save » Mon Feb 19, 2007 2:47 pm

Matsuzaka likely to debut vs. Eagles
By Jeff Horrigan/ Red Sox Notebook
Boston Herald Sports Reporter
Monday, February 19, 2007 - Updated: 09:06 AM EST

FORT MYERS - The Red Sox [team stats]’ formerly meaningless exhibition game with Boston College is likely to be the most important sporting event to an entire nation this year.
That nation, however, will be Japan. Terry Francona announced yesterday that Daisuke Matsuzaka will most likely start against the Eagles in the March 2 exhibition game (6:05 p.m.) at City Of Palms Park. The former Seibu Lions star, who threw off the bullpen mound for the first time yesterday at the Sox’ minor-league complex, is being lined up to face BC, followed by a start against the Florida Marlins on March 6 in Jupiter, Fla.


“We don’t look too far in advance, but I think the first week the starters will know where they are,” Francona said. “We don’t necessarily announce that far in advance because of weather and things like that.”
Pitching coach John Farrell told the Japanese media over the weekend that if there are no setbacks this spring, Matsuzaka could pitch the third game of the regular season in Kansas City on April 5. He’d then be on schedule to make his Fenway Park [map] debut on April 11 vs. the Seattle Mariners, providing Francona uses all five starters in the first two weeks, despite two scheduled off days. Barring injuries, Curt Schilling [stats] and Josh Beckett [stats] will most likely work the first two games on April 2 and 4, respectively, vs. the Royals.
Schilling, who does not like to face AL East opponents during spring training due to the possibility of overexposing his pitches to teams that each play the Sox 18 or 19 times during the regular season, said he suspected that wouldn’t be a concern for Matsuzaka.
“With the stuff I see him throwing and the games I’ve watched him pitch, it’s going to take a whole lot more than two or three times to get used to him,” Schilling said. “He’s got such an incredible mix of pitches and he has such good command.
“That’s why he’s an ace-in-the-making, because he’s going to be able to win some games when he’s not locating his fastball or doesn’t have his curveball,” he continued. “He’s like Pedro (Martinez) that he has multiple strikeout pitches. Those are the type of guys who can go out and not feel good and still dominate a game.”


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Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Mon Feb 19, 2007 3:10 pm

Schilling, who does not like to face AL East opponents during spring training due to the possibility of overexposing his pitches to teams that each play the Sox 18 or 19 times during the regular season, said he suspected that wouldn’t be a concern for Matsuzaka.
“With the stuff I see him throwing and the games I’ve watched him pitch, it’s going to take a whole lot more than two or three times to get used to him,” Schilling said. “He’s got such an incredible mix of pitches and he has such good command.
“That’s why he’s an ace-in-the-making, because he’s going to be able to win some games when he’s not locating his fastball or doesn’t have his curveball,” he continued. “He’s like Pedro (Martinez) that he has multiple strikeout pitches. Those are the type of guys who can go out and not feel good and still dominate a game.”


Schilling is a no BS, straight up guy. Those words carry a little weight with me. :-?
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Postby LukeW9027 » Mon Feb 19, 2007 6:58 pm

Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:
Schilling, who does not like to face AL East opponents during spring training due to the possibility of overexposing his pitches to teams that each play the Sox 18 or 19 times during the regular season, said he suspected that wouldn’t be a concern for Matsuzaka.
“With the stuff I see him throwing and the games I’ve watched him pitch, it’s going to take a whole lot more than two or three times to get used to him,” Schilling said. “He’s got such an incredible mix of pitches and he has such good command.
“That’s why he’s an ace-in-the-making, because he’s going to be able to win some games when he’s not locating his fastball or doesn’t have his curveball,” he continued. “He’s like Pedro (Martinez) that he has multiple strikeout pitches. Those are the type of guys who can go out and not feel good and still dominate a game.”


Schilling is a no BS, straight up guy. Those words carry a little weight with me. :-?


Schilling loves to run his mouth about every matter in the world, I wouldnt take this into affect too much.
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Postby Old_Style » Fri Mar 02, 2007 10:14 am

Three more hours!
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Postby thedude » Fri Mar 02, 2007 11:10 am

Old_Style wrote:Three more hours!


The game is @ 6Pm. so it is more like 8 more hours.
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