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Active HOF locks

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Postby DK » Fri Jul 14, 2006 2:13 pm

bwagner112 wrote:IMHO:

Right now Locks: Bonds, Piazza, Griffey, Jeter, Maddux, Clemens, R. Johnson, Rivera

Will be locks when done: A-Rod, Manny, Glavine, Hoffman, Pedro

There are handful of others that I think have a good shot of getting in....


Glavine and Hoffman are both on the wrong side of 38. They're already locks, since they're nearly done as it is.

A-Rod and Pedro are locks as well.
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Postby ttwarrior1 » Fri Jul 14, 2006 2:14 pm

something alot dont realize is that there are only probaly 2 pitchers under 25 that will ever even get close to 200 wins if that.

Plus there are some good young players but how many of those will play 15-20 years. Not many. Not to mention a hispanic saying he is 22 is actually 24 or 25
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Postby DK » Fri Jul 14, 2006 2:15 pm

joshheines wrote:Smoltz is very far from the HOF, let alone a lock. To say because a guy has a 20 win season and a 50 save season he should be in the hall is like saying Canseco should be in the hall because he went 40/40.

Smoltz has 1 CyYoung. He NEVER led the league in ERA and in fact never really came that close. He's 29th on the active list of win/loss percentage behind Kenny Rogers, Kevin Millwood and Russ Ortiz. Never led the league in WHIP. Only had 2 seasons in his entire career where he won more than 15 games. He only has two or three real standout seasons in his career - his cy young year and his 1.12 ERA closer year.

Griffey is a lock. I re-reviewed. He's stayed in the game long enough, barely to earn it.

As for the Piazza v. Pudge comparison. Please. Even taking defense into account, Piazza was so far superior to Pudge offensively that its not close. Pudge's career OPS was .830. Piazza was at .936. Factor in the Pudge played the majority of his career in offensive oriented ballparks and Piazza played in two of the most notorious pitcher-friendly parks (Chavez Ravine and Shea) and it's just not close. They have similar averages, but Piazza has a .040 higher OBP and .070 advantage in SLG. Again I'll refer to the RC/27 stat (how many runs owuld a team of 9 piazza's score). Pudge would score 6.06. Piazza's at 7.87. If you tell me that Pudge's defense is worth 1.81 more runs per game than Piazza's defense your nuts. That's would it would take to be even.

Last one for now is Sammy Sosa. Sosa has 5 incredible seasons bordered by some sabermetrically bad ones. Prior to taking off Sosa had an AVG of around .265/.315 OBP/and .520 SLG. Those are barely average numbers for a CO OF. His numbers after his 5 historical seasons are .265/.345/.535. Above average numbers, but hardly awe inspiring. Is Sosa a HOF? Yes. Is he a lock? No.

He's got a career adjusted OPS of 129, good for 28th active. He's tied with other potential HOFers like John Olerud and Tim Salmon and is well behind guys like Jim Edmonds, Bobby Abreu and Brian Giles.


You can analyze his performance statistically until you're blue in the face but in the end it will come down to his HR hit and he has five hundred eighty-eight of them. When you're fifth all-time on the HR list, you're a lock for the Hall no matter what your bad seasons look like.
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Postby noseeum » Fri Jul 14, 2006 2:23 pm

DK wrote:You can analyze his performance statistically until you're blue in the face but in the end it will come down to his HR hit and he has five hundred eighty-eight of them. When you're fifth all-time on the HR list, you're a lock for the Hall no matter what your bad seasons look like.


Sosa will be one of the most interesting of the "steroid debate" guys to come through because his early career mediocrity, followed by his absolute explosion, followed by his absolute implosion make people question how good he would have been unaided.

I think it's in his best interest to come back next year, if only to extend the number of years before his first vote.

The further from the controversy we go, the more likely people will just look at the numbers and say "he's got to be in."
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Postby joshheines » Fri Jul 14, 2006 2:24 pm

God, just when I get out you drag me back in. Derek Jeter? A lock. Can you say Overhype? Say it with me, "Overhype." Derek Jeter will be extremely lucky to get in the HOF (he will because he is in NY and a media darling, but doesn't deserve it).

From the top. Jeter has finished lower than 10th in MVP voting exactly twice. He's finished in the top ten in OPS once. Despite his phenomenal AVG, he's finished in the top 10 in OBP 4 times. He's had 2 seasons of .400 OBP and 1 season of .500 + SLG.

And, please, don't bring up Mr. Jeter's defense. He's been a below average defender his entire career and doesn't deserve either of his gold gloves. Up until the last two years Jeter's defense actually cost the Yankees about 20 runs per year.

Also, don't bring up Mr. Clutch post-season. It's ridiculous media-hype. Jeter's regular season numbers: .314/.386/.461. His post-season numbers: .307/.379/.463. Couldn't be more identical unless they were identical. If you really want to nit-pick, the majority of his post-season numbers were accumulated in the League Division series. His League Championship numbers are deplorable: .262/.339/.405. And his WS numbers are below his career averages: .302/.375/.434.

Simply, by the numbers, Jeter does not belong in the HOF. He's neither SS with a slick glove, nor the clutch post-season player the media portrays him as.
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Postby DK » Fri Jul 14, 2006 2:27 pm

joshheines wrote:God, just when I get out you drag me back in. Derek Jeter? A lock. Can you say Overhype? Say it with me, "Overhype." Derek Jeter will be extremely lucky to get in the HOF (he will because he is in NY and a media darling, but doesn't deserve it).

From the top. Jeter has finished lower than 10th in MVP voting exactly twice. He's finished in the top ten in OPS once. Despite his phenomenal AVG, he's finished in the top 10 in OBP 4 times. He's had 2 seasons of .400 OBP and 1 season of .500 + SLG.

And, please, don't bring up Mr. Jeter's defense. He's been a below average defender his entire career and doesn't deserve either of his gold gloves. Up until the last two years Jeter's defense actually cost the Yankees about 20 runs per year.

Also, don't bring up Mr. Clutch post-season. It's ridiculous media-hype. Jeter's regular season numbers: .314/.386/.461. His post-season numbers: .307/.379/.463. Couldn't be more identical unless they were identical. If you really want to nit-pick, the majority of his post-season numbers were accumulated in the League Division series. His League Championship numbers are deplorable: .262/.339/.405. And his WS numbers are below his career averages: .302/.375/.434.

Simply, by the numbers, Jeter does not belong in the HOF. He's neither SS with a slick glove, nor the clutch post-season player the media portrays him as.


Of course Jeter's overhyped. Hype may be his middle name. That doesn't change the fact that he's one of the premier SS of this generation and compared to the SS (not the league, which is the problem with your analysis; you compare players to the league when you should be comparing them to their contemporaries) is a top performer.

Whether you like it or not you can't discount the rings that he has or the portrayal of him in the media's eye or the people's eye, because they won't. Jeter is easily in the Hall, even if you don't think he deserves it (and I think he does).
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Postby joshheines » Fri Jul 14, 2006 2:42 pm

Let's then look at Mr. Jeter's contemporaries. Jeter has played from 1995-2006. Here are the top SS who played at least 4 contemporaneous years with Jeter. Even comparing Jeter to his contemporaries, he's never won a Silver Slugger.

1. A-Rod
2. Nomar Garciaparra
3. Miguel Tejada
4. Barry Larkin
5. Cal Ripken
6. Omar Vizquel
7. Edgar Renteria

I'd rank them, taking defense into account.

1. A-Rod
2. Ripkin
3. Larkin (similar numbers to Jeter, but put up a lot of them before the offensive explosion and had a vastly superior defense than Jeter)
4. Garciaparra
5. Jeter
6. Tejada
7. Renteria
8. Vizquel

So, IMO, Jeter is in the top tier compared to his contemporaries, but hardly on top.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Fri Jul 14, 2006 2:42 pm

DK wrote:Whether you like it or not you can't discount the rings that he has or the portrayal of him in the media's eye or the people's eye, because they won't. Jeter is easily in the Hall, even if you don't think he deserves it (and I think he does).

I was going to say the same thing except I don't think he deserves it yet. Either way the hype is media driven and that's who votes for the HOF. Jeter will make it easily.
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Postby Absolutely Adequate » Fri Jul 14, 2006 2:47 pm

Just for kicks, I suggest you check out who the cafe thought were locks just two years ago:

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... fame+locks

Please don't take this as an invitation to bump this thread, though. Please.
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Postby joshheines » Fri Jul 14, 2006 2:48 pm

Ok, so let's change the perameters of the discussion to who do you think is a lock to who do you think DESERVES to be a lock.

What about JEter then? This way no one can fall back on the media as a stat to get their players (Jeter or otherwise) in.
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