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Postby suppasonic » Sat Jul 15, 2006 5:04 pm

Is Cole Hamels already in the hall?

If not, he's a lock if his career ends right now.
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Postby smoovethug » Sun Jul 16, 2006 6:32 am

The Miner Part 2 wrote:
TheYanks04 wrote:Maddux
Johnson
Clemens
Pedro
Smoltz
Glavine
Mariano
Hoffman
Brown
Mussina- close...He should make it as he probably will get close to 300 wins...has a decent shot of making 300 also.
Manny
ARod (Winfield got in so there you go)
Barry Bonds
Sheffield
IRod
Biggio
Kent
Jeter
Andruw Jones has already played 10 years and is a lock imo.
Mike Piazza
Ken Griffey
Sammy Sosa
Frank Thomas
Rafael Palmiero


barry and raffy are in no way locks. yes thier numbers put them in. but any writer with a vote you hear comment on the subject says there is no way they are voting them in. should be interesting.

and i think youre drunk calling andruw, sheff locks.


Barry = STONE COLD MORTAL LOCK, and I don't even like the guy.

suppasonic wrote:Is Cole Hamels already in the hall?

If not, he's a lock if his career ends right now.


Cole Hamels has been in the hall since kindergarten when he monitored them.
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Postby ukrneal » Sun Jul 16, 2006 9:17 am

I would not vote for Andrew Jones today. Why?

Has he ever hit over .280? ONCE
Has he ever hit a .375 OBP? Um, NO!
Has he ever led the league in anything meaningful? Once (2005 - Hr and RBI). He isn't even close in other years.

Is he a great fielder and a good player? Yes. He is. But so far, his yearly numbers are similar to dozens of other players. The only way I see him getting in at the moment is if he has a long career at this level or has more years like last year.

His runs created, even with the gove he's got, are not enough either.

He's got a career .267 average. And his OBP is just .342. I don't care if he hits 500 HR. I don't think this is enough (and maintian all those other low indicators). McGriff will be a good indicator. If he gets to 600 HR, then maybe I'd be willing to reopen. In any case, I think it's just too early to consider him.

As to Puckett, he never hit below .288 and hit above .300 8 times. He only averaged 20HR the last 10 years of his career, but averaged 35-40 doubles over that span as well. Jones is more in the mold of a Kingman or a Dunn. I don't think a .267 average at that position is anything special. Anyway, he still has time to improve all that, so we'll see. I may come around in the end.
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Postby BritSox » Sun Jul 16, 2006 11:19 am

BronXBombers51 wrote:
TheYanks04 wrote:As to Sheff, 450+ Hrs, 1500 RBis, a career .399 OBP and .920+ OPS...What more do you want? He will liekly get to 500 HRs too.

And I am the biggest roids basher around here...can't stand cheaters and can't stand Bonds...but threre is no way enough writers are going to keep him out forever imo. Maybe they will keep him out on the first ballot or two, but eventualy he will get in unless he ends up serving 5-10 for perjury and whatever else they can prove.


I'm not going to turn this into a steroids thread, but Sheffield admitted to 'unknowingly' using steroids. He's in the same class as Bonds, Palmeiro, Sosa, etc. Him being a Yankee doesn't make a difference, sorry to say...


I thought the leaked testimony was that Bonds said 'unknowingly,' Giambi and Sheff confessed everything?

If Edmonds and his .922 OPS isn't a likely HoFer, I think Sheff only makes it if he actually breaks 500, as he's barely ahead on career OPS, and was a minus defender at corner OF rather than a plus one in CF. The rign helps, but he'd be a compiler rather than a dominator.

Anyone else think Hoffman's a lock the day he becomes the all-time saves leader, and not a game before?
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Postby Matthias » Sun Jul 16, 2006 11:46 am

BritSox wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:
TheYanks04 wrote:As to Sheff, 450+ Hrs, 1500 RBis, a career .399 OBP and .920+ OPS...What more do you want? He will liekly get to 500 HRs too.

And I am the biggest roids basher around here...can't stand cheaters and can't stand Bonds...but threre is no way enough writers are going to keep him out forever imo. Maybe they will keep him out on the first ballot or two, but eventualy he will get in unless he ends up serving 5-10 for perjury and whatever else they can prove.


I'm not going to turn this into a steroids thread, but Sheffield admitted to 'unknowingly' using steroids. He's in the same class as Bonds, Palmeiro, Sosa, etc. Him being a Yankee doesn't make a difference, sorry to say...


I thought the leaked testimony was that Bonds said 'unknowingly,' Giambi and Sheff confessed everything?

If Edmonds and his .922 OPS isn't a likely HoFer, I think Sheff only makes it if he actually breaks 500, as he's barely ahead on career OPS, and was a minus defender at corner OF rather than a plus one in CF. The rign helps, but he'd be a compiler rather than a dominator.


yah. and also a minus personality.

sheff has been good, and consistent, for a very nice career. but he hasn't had the eye-popping season or period where he was definitively the man. so lacking anything on the field or off of it to give him the benefit of the doubt for the hall, he'll only make it kicking and snarling, by compiling gaudy, you have to let me in, kind of stats.

which may be exactly how he would want it.
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Postby BronXBombers51 » Sun Jul 16, 2006 11:47 am

BritSox wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:
TheYanks04 wrote:As to Sheff, 450+ Hrs, 1500 RBis, a career .399 OBP and .920+ OPS...What more do you want? He will liekly get to 500 HRs too.

And I am the biggest roids basher around here...can't stand cheaters and can't stand Bonds...but threre is no way enough writers are going to keep him out forever imo. Maybe they will keep him out on the first ballot or two, but eventualy he will get in unless he ends up serving 5-10 for perjury and whatever else they can prove.


I'm not going to turn this into a steroids thread, but Sheffield admitted to 'unknowingly' using steroids. He's in the same class as Bonds, Palmeiro, Sosa, etc. Him being a Yankee doesn't make a difference, sorry to say...


I thought the leaked testimony was that Bonds said 'unknowingly,' Giambi and Sheff confessed everything?

If Edmonds and his .922 OPS isn't a likely HoFer, I think Sheff only makes it if he actually breaks 500, as he's barely ahead on career OPS, and was a minus defender at corner OF rather than a plus one in CF. The rign helps, but he'd be a compiler rather than a dominator.

Anyone else think Hoffman's a lock the day he becomes the all-time saves leader, and not a game before?


Sheff did the same thing as Bonds. Either way, they're all in the same boat. Yanks04 just doesn't include Sheffield or Giambi on the list of steroid users are accuse them of befriending Dr. Ting because they don pinstripes and Palemiero, Bonds, Sosa, etc. do not.
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Postby Tavish » Sun Jul 16, 2006 12:26 pm

BritSox wrote:Anyone else think Hoffman's a lock the day he becomes the all-time saves leader, and not a game before?


Like how Lee Smith was a lock? :-D

Hoffman and Rivera will gets tons of support no matter how they finish in career saves. They have been the two dominant closers in the era of closer prominence.
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Postby BritSox » Sun Jul 16, 2006 12:42 pm

It's just that the term 'all-time saves leader' seems to have such prominence in making a case for Trevor. I'd agree he probably gets in anyway, but I think it's the all-time leadership that makes it a slam dunk.
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Postby Tavish » Sun Jul 16, 2006 4:14 pm

DK wrote:
davidmarver wrote:
DK wrote:Runs and RBI are mainly team-based and circumstancial, so those get thrown out when trying to do an individual analysis. SB's are basically worthless, especially for a catcher (and when you factor in the CS% rate it's really no difference between the two).

SBs are not worthless. It's stretching a single/walk into a double; think of the difference in SLG if it were incorporated that way. Also...RBI are a lot more team-dependent than runs. Granted both take some degree of team-dependency, but it's easier to get lucky in RBI than it is runs.

DK wrote:RC:
Piazza: 1322, 153
Pudge: 1207, 120

In short, Piazza dominates Pudge in all the meaningful offensive statistics. Defensively? Of course Pudge is better. There's no real question. Even though Piazza is underrated for his defense - he's good at blocking the plate but has an F arm - Pudge is, subjectively and objectively, a better defender. But the offensive difference contributed by Piazza is so great that it overtakes any defensive difference between the two.

Pudge, in his career, has accumulated 119 BRAA, while Piazza has 488. 8-o Defensively, though, Pudge has accumulated 191 FRAA, while Piazza comes in at a negative 137. Combined, you're looking at Pudge at 310 Runs Above Average, while Piazza is at 351 Runs Above Average.

Pudge's WARP3 (Wins Above Replacement Player) is 116.2, while Piazza's is 96.8.

So while Piazza's offensive numbers do annihilate Pudge's, he's been nothing but a liability on defense while Pudge has held down the fort with the best of them, making their relative outputs fairly comparable.


A) Fair enough about the SB's. It's not that much of a difference, though.

B) I'm curious how Piazza is 41 runs better than Pudge, but Pudge's WARP3 numbers are better than Piazza's.


Sorry DK, I meant to answer this earlier but somehow it slipped my mind.

Marver used two different metrics, one (the BRAA and FRAA) measured against an Average player and WARP3 measured against Replacement level. If you use both measures in terms of Replacement level you can see the difference (RAR equals the total of batting and fielding Runs Above Replacement level).

Pudge BRAR 447 FRAR 566 RAR 1013 WARP3 116.2
Piazza BRAR 689 FRAR 174 RAR 863 WARP3 97.1
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Postby ukrneal » Sun Jul 16, 2006 4:20 pm

I'm not sure if you've taken this into account. But Piazza was great at passed balls while Pudge was terrible. I just read about it too, but can't find the articles now that I want them!
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