macca wrote:I'm also not sure that Pedro is a lock until he gets to 300. Also, I'd agree that you are crazy to not have Griffey as a lock. He's hit the milestones without a hint of controversy(steroids). I also think it is crazy to leave Rivera or Smoltz off of the 'for sure' list, if you're going to have Pedro in there.
Given that most people believe that no starters will be reaching 300 after Glavine, I don't think that's the real milestone for starters. Not to mention, Pedro has done well enough to get in. He's a lock. Milestones are guidelines, not hard and fast requirements - Sandy Koufax anyone?
"The government cannot give to anyone anything that it does not first take from someone else"
BritSox wrote: You're missing the point with comments like 'when all is said and done he'll have X HR' and 'closing in on 300 wins.' The point is not who will be a lock in a year or two, it's who gets in if he suffers a career-ending injury tonight and never again puts on a uniform.
Very good point - which is why Manny and Arod are not locks yet.
"The government cannot give to anyone anything that it does not first take from someone else"
A-Rod has 448 Homers. Bagwell has ONE more, in a longer career, with a lower career OPS, is almost certainly done, and only has one MVP. And Bagwell is considered very likely. ARod played SS the majority of his career, won a GG there. Bags played first.
Rodriguez is a lock. RIGHT NOW.
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Bloody Sox wrote:If their careers ended today, Manny, Arod, Irod, and Jeter would not be in. They each have work to do.
I disagree. Especially on I-Rod. He's made every All-Star game for the past 13 years. Excellent defense and he hits very well for a catcher. 1 MVP and and gets a lot of credit for the Marlins WS win in 2000. The writers eat that stuff up.
macca wrote:I'm also not sure that Pedro is a lock until he gets to 300. Also, I'd agree that you are crazy to not have Griffey as a lock. He's hit the milestones without a hint of controversy(steroids). I also think it is crazy to leave Rivera or Smoltz off of the 'for sure' list, if you're going to have Pedro in there.
Given that most people believe that no starters will be reaching 300 after Glavine, I don't think that's the real milestone for starters. Not to mention, Pedro has done well enough to get in. He's a lock. Milestones are guidelines, not hard and fast requirements - Sandy Koufax anyone?
Pedro is a complete lock.
3 Cy Youngs. Two second places.
Career Winning Percentage leader for anyone with more than 110 wins.
Career leader in adjusted ERA+.
Best adjusted ERA+ in a single season ever in the modern era.
Pitching triple crown in 1999 and that wasn't even his most dominant year (missed out in wins in 2000).
By far the most dominant pitcher of our time.
I could go on.
Freakin' stud, dude. Wow. This all coming from a Yankee fan.
BritSox wrote:A-Rod has 448 Homers. Bagwell has ONE more, in a longer career, with a lower career OPS, is almost certainly done, and only has one MVP. And Bagwell is considered very likely. ARod played SS the majority of his career, won a GG there. Bags played first.
Sosa has 588 home runs and he's not a lock? Come on. Sosa's a Hall of Famer, no question. Although it's hard to call him active now...
Pedro, RJ, Clemens, Glavine, Maddux, Mariano, Hoffman, Bonds, Sosa, A-Rod, Piazza, Jeter, Griffey, Bagwell, Biggio are all locks IMO off the top of my head.
Smoltz is very far from the HOF, let alone a lock. To say because a guy has a 20 win season and a 50 save season he should be in the hall is like saying Canseco should be in the hall because he went 40/40.
Smoltz has 1 CyYoung. He NEVER led the league in ERA and in fact never really came that close. He's 29th on the active list of win/loss percentage behind Kenny Rogers, Kevin Millwood and Russ Ortiz. Never led the league in WHIP. Only had 2 seasons in his entire career where he won more than 15 games. He only has two or three real standout seasons in his career - his cy young year and his 1.12 ERA closer year.
Griffey is a lock. I re-reviewed. He's stayed in the game long enough, barely to earn it.
As for the Piazza v. Pudge comparison. Please. Even taking defense into account, Piazza was so far superior to Pudge offensively that its not close. Pudge's career OPS was .830. Piazza was at .936. Factor in the Pudge played the majority of his career in offensive oriented ballparks and Piazza played in two of the most notorious pitcher-friendly parks (Chavez Ravine and Shea) and it's just not close. They have similar averages, but Piazza has a .040 higher OBP and .070 advantage in SLG. Again I'll refer to the RC/27 stat (how many runs owuld a team of 9 piazza's score). Pudge would score 6.06. Piazza's at 7.87. If you tell me that Pudge's defense is worth 1.81 more runs per game than Piazza's defense your nuts. That's would it would take to be even.
Last one for now is Sammy Sosa. Sosa has 5 incredible seasons bordered by some sabermetrically bad ones. Prior to taking off Sosa had an AVG of around .265/.315 OBP/and .520 SLG. Those are barely average numbers for a CO OF. His numbers after his 5 historical seasons are .265/.345/.535. Above average numbers, but hardly awe inspiring. Is Sosa a HOF? Yes. Is he a lock? No.
He's got a career adjusted OPS of 129, good for 28th active. He's tied with other potential HOFers like John Olerud and Tim Salmon and is well behind guys like Jim Edmonds, Bobby Abreu and Brian Giles.
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by Bloody Sox » Fri Jul 14, 2006 1:37 pm 
Come on. Sosa's a Hall of Famer, no question. Although it's hard to call him active now...
