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Postby Bloody Sox » Fri Jul 14, 2006 1:37 pm

macca wrote:I'm also not sure that Pedro is a lock until he gets to 300. Also, I'd agree that you are crazy to not have Griffey as a lock. He's hit the milestones without a hint of controversy(steroids). I also think it is crazy to leave Rivera or Smoltz off of the 'for sure' list, if you're going to have Pedro in there.


Given that most people believe that no starters will be reaching 300 after Glavine, I don't think that's the real milestone for starters. Not to mention, Pedro has done well enough to get in. He's a lock. Milestones are guidelines, not hard and fast requirements - Sandy Koufax anyone?
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Re: Active HOF locks

Postby Bloody Sox » Fri Jul 14, 2006 1:39 pm

BritSox wrote: You're missing the point with comments like 'when all is said and done he'll have X HR' and 'closing in on 300 wins.' The point is not who will be a lock in a year or two, it's who gets in if he suffers a career-ending injury tonight and never again puts on a uniform.


Very good point - which is why Manny and Arod are not locks yet.
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Postby Bloody Sox » Fri Jul 14, 2006 1:44 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:This isn't who I think should be locks but who I think are locks for the writers vote.

Hitters: Bonds, Sosa, Piazza, Manny, A-Rod, Griffey, Bagwell, Biggio, I-Rod, Jeter, Alomar, and Larkin

Pitchers: Maddux, Clemens, Pedro, RJ, Glavine, Schilling, Smoltz, Hoffman and Rivera


If their careers ended today, Manny, Arod, Irod, and Jeter would not be in. They each have work to do.

Alomar and Larkin? I wouldn't have thought so, but you're probably right taking a look at their numbers.
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Postby BritSox » Fri Jul 14, 2006 1:50 pm

A-Rod has 448 Homers. Bagwell has ONE more, in a longer career, with a lower career OPS, is almost certainly done, and only has one MVP. And Bagwell is considered very likely. ARod played SS the majority of his career, won a GG there. Bags played first.

Rodriguez is a lock. RIGHT NOW.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Fri Jul 14, 2006 1:53 pm

Bloody Sox wrote:If their careers ended today, Manny, Arod, Irod, and Jeter would not be in. They each have work to do.
I disagree. Especially on I-Rod. He's made every All-Star game for the past 13 years. Excellent defense and he hits very well for a catcher. 1 MVP and and gets a lot of credit for the Marlins WS win in 2000. The writers eat that stuff up.
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Postby noseeum » Fri Jul 14, 2006 1:58 pm

Bloody Sox wrote:
macca wrote:I'm also not sure that Pedro is a lock until he gets to 300. Also, I'd agree that you are crazy to not have Griffey as a lock. He's hit the milestones without a hint of controversy(steroids). I also think it is crazy to leave Rivera or Smoltz off of the 'for sure' list, if you're going to have Pedro in there.


Given that most people believe that no starters will be reaching 300 after Glavine, I don't think that's the real milestone for starters. Not to mention, Pedro has done well enough to get in. He's a lock. Milestones are guidelines, not hard and fast requirements - Sandy Koufax anyone?


Pedro is a complete lock.
3 Cy Youngs. Two second places.
Career Winning Percentage leader for anyone with more than 110 wins.
Career leader in adjusted ERA+.
Best adjusted ERA+ in a single season ever in the modern era.
Pitching triple crown in 1999 and that wasn't even his most dominant year (missed out in wins in 2000).
By far the most dominant pitcher of our time.

I could go on.

Freakin' stud, dude. Wow. This all coming from a Yankee fan.
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Postby blankman » Fri Jul 14, 2006 2:00 pm

BritSox wrote:A-Rod has 448 Homers. Bagwell has ONE more, in a longer career, with a lower career OPS, is almost certainly done, and only has one MVP. And Bagwell is considered very likely. ARod played SS the majority of his career, won a GG there. Bags played first.

Rodriguez is a lock. RIGHT NOW.


My thoughts as well. He's already in.


As is Rivera of course.
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Postby DK » Fri Jul 14, 2006 2:08 pm

Sosa has 588 home runs and he's not a lock? :-? Come on. Sosa's a Hall of Famer, no question. Although it's hard to call him active now...

Pedro, RJ, Clemens, Glavine, Maddux, Mariano, Hoffman, Bonds, Sosa, A-Rod, Piazza, Jeter, Griffey, Bagwell, Biggio are all locks IMO off the top of my head.
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Postby bwagner112 » Fri Jul 14, 2006 2:10 pm

IMHO:

Right now Locks: Bonds, Piazza, Griffey, Jeter, Maddux, Clemens, R. Johnson, Rivera

Will be locks when done: A-Rod, Manny, Glavine, Hoffman, Pedro

There are handful of others that I think have a good shot of getting in....
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Postby joshheines » Fri Jul 14, 2006 2:12 pm

Smoltz is very far from the HOF, let alone a lock. To say because a guy has a 20 win season and a 50 save season he should be in the hall is like saying Canseco should be in the hall because he went 40/40.

Smoltz has 1 CyYoung. He NEVER led the league in ERA and in fact never really came that close. He's 29th on the active list of win/loss percentage behind Kenny Rogers, Kevin Millwood and Russ Ortiz. Never led the league in WHIP. Only had 2 seasons in his entire career where he won more than 15 games. He only has two or three real standout seasons in his career - his cy young year and his 1.12 ERA closer year.

Griffey is a lock. I re-reviewed. He's stayed in the game long enough, barely to earn it.

As for the Piazza v. Pudge comparison. Please. Even taking defense into account, Piazza was so far superior to Pudge offensively that its not close. Pudge's career OPS was .830. Piazza was at .936. Factor in the Pudge played the majority of his career in offensive oriented ballparks and Piazza played in two of the most notorious pitcher-friendly parks (Chavez Ravine and Shea) and it's just not close. They have similar averages, but Piazza has a .040 higher OBP and .070 advantage in SLG. Again I'll refer to the RC/27 stat (how many runs owuld a team of 9 piazza's score). Pudge would score 6.06. Piazza's at 7.87. If you tell me that Pudge's defense is worth 1.81 more runs per game than Piazza's defense your nuts. That's would it would take to be even.

Last one for now is Sammy Sosa. Sosa has 5 incredible seasons bordered by some sabermetrically bad ones. Prior to taking off Sosa had an AVG of around .265/.315 OBP/and .520 SLG. Those are barely average numbers for a CO OF. His numbers after his 5 historical seasons are .265/.345/.535. Above average numbers, but hardly awe inspiring. Is Sosa a HOF? Yes. Is he a lock? No.

He's got a career adjusted OPS of 129, good for 28th active. He's tied with other potential HOFers like John Olerud and Tim Salmon and is well behind guys like Jim Edmonds, Bobby Abreu and Brian Giles.
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