Active HOF locks

[joshheines]

The recent threads of HOF discussion got me thinking who are the active or very recently retired (last two years) who are no doubt about it mortal locks for the HOF if they retired today (or two years ago). Here's my brief list to prompt discussion.

Sticks: Barry Bonds and Mike Piazza. I'll actually leave off Ken Griffey Jr., Sammy Sosa, Frank Thomas, Larry Walker, Jeff Bagwell and Rafael Palmiero.

How can I leave Griffey off a mortal lock list? His career basically lasted from the time he was 20-30 with one season that was above average before or after that period. Bagwell has had a longer career and has a higher adjusted OPS. Beleive it or not, but Bagwell has more career SBs than the Kid. The Gold Gloves probably put him over the top. From a milestone point of view he's a lock, but taking each season apart, it's questionable (if Bagwell is).

Arms: Clemens(need I say more?), Maddux (4 Cys, 320+wins, 3000+K, led league in ERA 4 times), Johnson (5 Cys, led league in ERA 4 times, 3rd most Ks ever), Pedro (3 Cys, led league in ERA 5 times, 200 wins, 3rd best win/loss ratio of all time).

I'll leave out guys like Smoltz, Brown, Mussina, Schilling (0 Cys, never led league in ERA), Glavine, Mariano and Hoffman.

[giants!]

You are crazy if you dont think Griffey is a lock for the hall.

[rainman23]

Kind of a stingy list, at least on the offensive side. He's still young, but I guarantee you that if Arod retires today he's in the HoF. Along with some of the other guys you mention. On the pitching side there is really no doubt about Rivera -- like it or not, the post-season stuff is going to make him a much easier call than Hoffman.

But maybe your real point is which of them should be absolute locks?

[mikhayl]

Smoltz is a lock because he's a 50-20 guy. I believe he's one of 2 people to accomplish that feat.

[Dan Lambskin]

is Piazza really a lock? not really challenging it, just kind of caught me off guard.

IMO Pudge is a definate lock you left off the list. i think Griffey is a lock too

[bceagles04]

Barry Bonds- Lock
Mike Piazza- Lock

Ken Griffey Jr.- Lock: When all is said and done he will be over 600 career HR. He is at 555 now...lets say 570 after 06. Then even if he plays 2 more years and hits 15 HR in each, he is over 600, and that is rarified air. .292 avg. and over 1500 RBI dont hurt.

Sammy Sosa- Sammy deserves a very hard look. His numbers save that avg. are very similar to Griffey's whom we consider a lock. Steroids, corked bat, or clean, he put up 3 60 HR seasons which is unbelievable. I say he is in, but not a lock

Frank Thomas- Lock. He has missed out on some decent production the last few years due to injury, but he has had a hell of a career. SEVEN straight years of 100 runs, 25 HR, 100 RBI and a .300 avg. I haven't tried, but see if you can find someone who has equaled this that still plays today.

Larry Walker- I say no. He was great for many years in Coors. But his numbers were inflated quite a bit. Not really close to any great marks, so I say no.

Jeff Bagwell- He has great numbers. Unfortunately he never won a WS and that may or may not hurt him. Right now he is 50/50

Rafael Palmiero- I hate steroids and what they do to the game so I won't comment. He has the numbers though

Clemens- Lock
Maddux-Lock
Johnson-Lock
Pedro - Lock
Smoltz- 177 wins, 154 saves. Thats gotta be enough for a lock. To be able to from a great starter to a dominant closer and back speaks volumes.
Brown- Great pitcher, but he just doesn't really stick out as much as others. I'm not sure why.
Mussina- He has a better shot than Schill. He has a much better record, and he is younger. He could get 250 wins.
Schilling- Tough call. He has great numbers, got the WS...but something tells me he won't get in.
Glavine- Lock. Closing in on 300 wins = a lock
Mariano- Lock. Most dominant closer in 10 years.
Hoffman- In 11 full years he has ammassed over 430 saves while being one of the most dominant closers in baseball. Lock

Two hitters you left on were Pudge and Manny, I think both are lock's.

[BritSox]

The recent threads of HOF discussion got me thinking who are the active or very recently retired (last two years) who are no doubt about it mortal locks for the HOF if they retired today (or two years ago). Here's my brief list to prompt discussion.

Sticks: Barry Bonds and Mike Piazza. I'll actually leave off Ken Griffey Jr., Sammy Sosa, Frank Thomas, Larry Walker, Jeff Bagwell and Rafael Palmiero.

How can I leave Griffey off a mortal lock list? His career basically lasted from the time he was 20-30 with one season that was above average before or after that period. Bagwell has had a longer career and has a higher adjusted OPS. Beleive it or not, but Bagwell has more career SBs than the Kid. The Gold Gloves probably put him over the top. From a milestone point of view he's a lock, but taking each season apart, it's questionable (if Bagwell is).

Arms: Clemens(need I say more?), Maddux (4 Cys, 320+wins, 3000+K, led league in ERA 4 times), Johnson (5 Cys, led league in ERA 4 times, 3rd most Ks ever), Pedro (3 Cys, led league in ERA 5 times, 200 wins, 3rd best win/loss ratio of all time).

I'll leave out guys like Smoltz, Brown, Mussina, Schilling (0 Cys, never led league in ERA), Glavine, Mariano and Hoffman.

I'll give you the SP, that's fairly uncontentious. Griffey though: how can you ignore that Bags played 1B and Griffey an excellent CF?

A-Rod: Gold Glove Shortstop, batting title in his first full season, a 40/40 year, Two MVPs, two second places, perennial all-star, most homers ever on 30th birthday: he's within touching distance of 450 homers at 31. If he's not a mortal lock, he's as close as it's possible to be.

I wouldn't count Sosa, Walker, Bagwell or Palmeiro as 'active' either. I'd agree that Thomas and Glavine probably need another decent season or two each to be locks.

Throwing one out there, Manny? 7th in all-time career OPS. Eight silver sluggers, ten all-star selections including nine consecutive. Series MVP, two Hank Aaron Awards. Led each triple crown category once, led the AL in OPS three times, three seasons with both >.300 BA and 40+ homers. Seven times top-10 in MVP voting. No-one doubts he's going, but i think he might be a lock already.

[macca]

I'm also not sure that Pedro is a lock until he gets to 300. Also, I'd agree that you are crazy to not have Griffey as a lock. He's hit the milestones without a hint of controversy(steroids). I also think it is crazy to leave Rivera or Smoltz off of the 'for sure' list, if you're going to have Pedro in there.

You can't have Frank Thomas in there. Look, I loved the Big Hurt as much as the next guy in the mid 90's, what he did was amazing. That being said, he has not reached the milestones. Same with Pedro. Like it or not, the voters look at who hit the milestones. Mattingly not being in is a perfect example. He had about 5 monster years and then a bunch of good years, was an icon in New York, defined what a baseball player should be, and didn't get to 3000 hits= not in the Hall. That's why people will say I'm crazy for not adding Pedro, but until he hits a milestone, he's not 'for sure' in in my eyes.

[Pogotheostrich]

This isn't who I think should be locks but who I think are locks for the writers vote.

Hitters: Bonds, Sosa, Piazza, Manny, A-Rod, Griffey, Bagwell, Biggio, I-Rod, Jeter, Alomar, and Larkin

Pitchers: Maddux, Clemens, Pedro, RJ, Glavine, Schilling, Smoltz, Hoffman and Rivera

[BritSox]

Barry Bonds- Lock
Mike Piazza- Lock

Ken Griffey Jr.- Lock: When all is said and done he will be over 600 career HR. He is at 555 now...lets say 570 after 06. Then even if he plays 2 more years and hits 15 HR in each, he is over 600, and that is rarified air. .292 avg. and over 1500 RBI dont hurt.

Sammy Sosa- Sammy deserves a very hard look. His numbers save that avg. are very similar to Griffey's whom we consider a lock. Steroids, corked bat, or clean, he put up 3 60 HR seasons which is unbelievable. I say he is in, but not a lock

Frank Thomas- Lock. He has missed out on some decent production the last few years due to injury, but he has had a hell of a career. SEVEN straight years of 100 runs, 25 HR, 100 RBI and a .300 avg. I haven't tried, but see if you can find someone who has equaled this that still plays today.

Larry Walker- I say no. He was great for many years in Coors. But his numbers were inflated quite a bit. Not really close to any great marks, so I say no.

Jeff Bagwell- He has great numbers. Unfortunately he never won a WS and that may or may not hurt him. Right now he is 50/50

Rafael Palmiero- I hate steroids and what they do to the game so I won't comment. He has the numbers though

Clemens- Lock
Maddux-Lock
Johnson-Lock
Pedro - Lock
Smoltz- 177 wins, 154 saves. Thats gotta be enough for a lock. To be able to from a great starter to a dominant closer and back speaks volumes.
Brown- Great pitcher, but he just doesn't really stick out as much as others. I'm not sure why.
Mussina- He has a better shot than Schill. He has a much better record, and he is younger. He could get 250 wins.
Schilling- Tough call. He has great numbers, got the WS...but something tells me he won't get in.
Glavine- Lock. Closing in on 300 wins = a lock
Mariano- Lock. Most dominant closer in 10 years.
Hoffman- In 11 full years he has ammassed over 430 saves while being one of the most dominant closers in baseball. Lock

Two hitters you left on were Pudge and Manny, I think both are lock's.

You're missing the point with comments like 'when all is said and done he'll have X HR' and 'closing in on 300 wins.' The point is not who will be a lock in a year or two, it's who gets in if he suffers a career-ending injury tonight and never again puts on a uniform.