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HoF Debate: Jeff Bagwell

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Postby DK » Thu Jul 13, 2006 10:29 pm

ThatDude wrote:
DK wrote:
ThatDude wrote:The reason why is the same as it was for Kent, Biggio, and Glavine. I think the HoF is being polluted with too many marginal players, and I don't like it. I wouldn't mind if they closed the books completely for a while actually.

You're more than welcome to try to change my opinion on him. I do try to keep an open mind, but you've got an uphill battle, and listing career stats isn't going to get the job done. Of this current string of HoF topics, Bagwell would be last one I would vote for.


Showing you statistics won't sway you? Well gosh darn. I won't let those tricky "stats", which were probably invented by a computer to twist my view on baseball so I can only see a beautiful "ground ball with eyes" creep through the middle as a mere 1B, or "single", or whatever those ridiculous computers quantify a hitter getting on first by way of contact with bat and ball.

I'm sorry that rational thought and actual production on a baseball field won't sway you.

And the bolded section is one of the most ridiculous things I've ever heard. Play in this era, and you can't possibly be one of the greatest, so we're going to shut you out. Sorry RJ, Bonds, Maddux, Pedro, Sosa, Clemens. I'm gonna pull a leaf out of Ozzie's book and say "You want to be in the HoF? Play harder in your next life."


What's the difference between me looking up the stats and you typing them out? Nothing. So why would that change my opinion in the least?

Nowhere did I say those players would be shut out (although I've stated where I stand on Pedro in another thread, the Biggio one I think). Closing the doors for 5-6 years wouldn't do anything to erase what they've done, and they would get in when the doors reopened.


What the heck is the point of closing the doors then? It wouldn't accomplish anything other than delaying the inevitable.

Plus if you close the doors, when you re-open them there would be a huge rush to add players which may result in MORE players being added than if you'd just left them open the whole time.

And you still have given no reasons why Bagwell should be left out. :-?
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Postby noseeum » Thu Jul 13, 2006 10:34 pm

Yeah, Dude, your arguments are getting tired because so far you've basically said nothing but, "no, I don't think they should make it. They're not that great."

List out the players of this generation you DO think should make it, then list out some recent players from the 70s or so who have made it that shouldn't have, so we can get a feel for where your line is.
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Postby ThatDude » Thu Jul 13, 2006 10:34 pm

DK wrote:And you still have given no reasons why Bagwell should be left out. :-?



Actually, I did.

ThatDude wrote:The reason why is the same as it was for Kent, Biggio, and Glavine. I think the HoF is being polluted with too many marginal players, and I don't like it.
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Postby noseeum » Thu Jul 13, 2006 10:45 pm

ThatDude wrote:
DK wrote:And you still have given no reasons why Bagwell should be left out. :-?



Actually, I did.

ThatDude wrote:The reason why is the same as it was for Kent, Biggio, and Glavine. I think the HoF is being polluted with too many marginal players, and I don't like it.


But you haven't said WHY they're marginal. People show you stats to refute, and you just say "nah." What are they missing? Show us a player at the position who's in, why you wouldn't vote for that player, or what they have that this player doesn't.
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Postby DK » Thu Jul 13, 2006 10:55 pm

noseeum wrote:
ThatDude wrote:
DK wrote:And you still have given no reasons why Bagwell should be left out. :-?



Actually, I did.

ThatDude wrote:The reason why is the same as it was for Kent, Biggio, and Glavine. I think the HoF is being polluted with too many marginal players, and I don't like it.


But you haven't said WHY they're marginal. People show you stats to refute, and you just say "nah." What are they missing? Show us a player at the position who's in, why you wouldn't vote for that player, or what they have that this player doesn't.


That's exactly what I mean.
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Postby HOOTIE » Thu Jul 13, 2006 10:56 pm

You guys are tough. Bagwell is one of the best 1b in the past 30 years. His career OPS+ of 150, ranks 30th all-time. He also played defense and could run. He's a easy HOF to me, the most obvious pick of Bighorts threads. Imo, the HOF has too few, not too many. Dick Allen and Bagwell crush Tony Perez whos in (wrong).
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Postby joshheines » Thu Jul 13, 2006 11:00 pm

giants! wrote:I wouldnt put him in. Again, it comes down to that it is The Hall of Fame, not The Hall of the very good. Bagwell never stood out among the other hitters of his time, he wasnt better than THomas, Palmeiro, McGwire, McGriff, and even if he was better, it wasnt enough to stand out over them. He has never won a ring, only has the 14th highest active ops, and just simply, did not accumulate enough stats to get in.


I only quote giants! because he lists some of Bags 1B contemporaries and people say Bagwell doesn't stick out as one of the greatest players of our time.

Adjusted OPS is the easiest way of taking whatever offensive/defensive era out of the equation and just comparing the player to his contemporaries in a given year. I've already given you Bags and McGriff top 5 adjusted OPS seasons. Here are some of his contemporaries. Note must have had at least 500 PA to count towards this (example McGwire had an adjusted of 205, but in only 321 PA, barely half a season)

Palmiero: 160, 155, 150, 145, 141 (Career 132). Only one season of 1.000+ OPS and only two others of .950+.

Thomas: 212, 181, 180, 178, 178 (career 161(tied for 14th highest career adjusted OPS ahead of Stan Musial and Hank Greenberg) Seven 1.000+ OPS seasons and one 1.20 OPS season.

McGwire: 217, 203, 178, 175, 168 (career 163 (tied for 11th highest career adjusted OPS with Jimmie Fox))

Bagwell's career adjusted OPS is 150 (tied for 30th highest career adjusted OPS. Tied with Honus Wagner and Nap Lajoie).

Bagwell's in the same adjusted OPS neighborhood as "elite" HOF like: Frank Robinson (154), Hank Aaron, Joe Dimaggio, Mel Ott (all 155), and Willie Mays (156). Manny Ramirez was also at 156 prior to this season.

Here's a short list of players who have had a 213+ adjusted OPS since 1920. Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Jeff Bagwell, Ted Williams, Babe Ruth and Rogers Hornsby.

Let's also factor in durability. Thomas and McGwire are in Bagwells league, but both were oft injured. Bagwell basically played 155+ games every season from 1991-2004, except for the strike shortened 1994 where he played almost every game. Also in 1993 he played 142 games and in 1995 he played 114 games). Also add in Bagwell's 200+ SBs.

One more stat to throw out there is Runs Created / 27 (how many runs would a team of 9 bagwells score?)

Bagwell: 7.87
McGwire: 8.16
Thomas: 8.93

Thomas' value has to be discounted because he split his playing time evenly between 1B and DH.
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Postby ThatDude » Thu Jul 13, 2006 11:03 pm

noseeum wrote:
ThatDude wrote:
DK wrote:And you still have given no reasons why Bagwell should be left out. :-?



Actually, I did.

ThatDude wrote:The reason why is the same as it was for Kent, Biggio, and Glavine. I think the HoF is being polluted with too many marginal players, and I don't like it.


But you haven't said WHY they're marginal. People show you stats to refute, and you just say "nah." What are they missing? Show us a player at the position who's in, why you wouldn't vote for that player, or what they have that this player doesn't.



Alright, but you'll have to wait until tommorrow after work or the weekend for me to put a repsonse together. My woman is in the mood, and I'm going to get it while the gettin's good.
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Postby noseeum » Thu Jul 13, 2006 11:05 pm

ThatDude wrote:
noseeum wrote:
ThatDude wrote:
DK wrote:And you still have given no reasons why Bagwell should be left out. :-?



Actually, I did.

ThatDude wrote:The reason why is the same as it was for Kent, Biggio, and Glavine. I think the HoF is being polluted with too many marginal players, and I don't like it.


But you haven't said WHY they're marginal. People show you stats to refute, and you just say "nah." What are they missing? Show us a player at the position who's in, why you wouldn't vote for that player, or what they have that this player doesn't.



Alright, but you'll have to wait until tommorrow after work or the weekend for me to put a repsonse together. My woman is in the mood, and I'm going to get it while the gettin's good.


That Dude abides. :-D
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Postby davidmarver » Thu Jul 13, 2006 11:11 pm

Bagwell is the easiest of those presented thus far.

33rd on the All-Time OPS+ list, he's created the 31st most runs in baseball history, all while playing very good defense (+122 FRAA) in a low-scoring park.

The Bagwell/McGriff comparison is pretty poor. To supplement the OPS+ and RC numbers, Bagwell has a WARP3 (Wins Above Replacement Player) of 135, while McGriff is only 102 WARP3 in his career.

I say he's in fairly easily...certainly easier than Kent, Biggio, or Glavine.
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