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HoF Debate: Jeff Bagwell

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HoF Debate: Jeff Bagwell

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Jul 13, 2006 8:07 am

Up Next: Jeff Bagwell

15 Major League Seasons in Houston under his belt, over 2300 Hits, 1 shy of 450 HRs, over 1500 RBI. Career .408 OBP, single season Record Holder for Runs Scored (152), .297 career AVG, career .948 OPS. 1991 NL Rookie of the Year, 1994 NL MVP, 1994 Gold Glove at 1B, 3 Silver Slugger Awards (94, 97, 99), 6 Top 10 MVP Voting Finishes, career 150 OPS+, 969 career EBH.

Baseball-Reference HoF Monitor:
Black Ink: Batting - 24 (78) (Average HOFer ~ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 157 (75) (Average HOFer ~ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 59.0 (30) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 149.5 (76) (Likely HOFer > 100)

Things I Consider:
- Historical Impact - Did the player leave his mark on the game? This is probably the area in which the fewest players actually impact the HoF, as so few people actually fall under this criteria; however, it is just one of several things to be considered.
- Position Rank - How does he stack up against his peers, not only of his own era but in baseball history? Judging a player against his contemporaries is one way to judge value.
- Longevity - how long does a player play at the top of his game? Is his peak short, or does he maintain excellence over a stretch? Is he given an extra nudge due to simply doing something for an absurd amount of time?
- 'The Numbers' - Isn't that what it's all about, afterall? From the milestones, to the averages/ratios, to the career highs, records, etc. etc.

Remember, NO FLAMING/INSTIGATIN'!


1st ballot? 2nd? 3rd? Not at all? Why? Is he a lock today? In a season? Two more? Three?


Enjoy! ;-D
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:39 am

I'd put him in but it seems like I value peak over longevity more than most around here. Great hitter and I'm kind of surprised he didn't win more gold gloves.
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Postby WhiteHot » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:42 am

He needs a lot more HRs.

When I think of Bagwell, I think of the Larry Andersen trade...I don't think of a HOFer.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:54 am

WhiteHot wrote:He needs a lot more HRs.

When I think of Bagwell, I think of the Larry Andersen trade...I don't think of a HOFer.


HR are overrated. Plus Bagwell played in the Astrodome his first 9 seasons, not exactly a homer friendly park.
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Postby MrSnider » Thu Jul 13, 2006 11:09 am

I think it's close. If he had 500 HR, he'd be a lock. 450's not shabby though, but if Fred McGriff is unlikely to get in with 497, I couldn't support Bagwell. Both were feared hitters in their day and without glancing at Fred's career stats, I imagine they're relatively similar. So I'll tie them together. If Fred's in/out, Jeff's in and vice versa.
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Postby giants! » Thu Jul 13, 2006 11:17 am

I wouldnt put him in. Again, it comes down to that it is The Hall of Fame, not The Hall of the very good. Bagwell never stood out among the other hitters of his time, he wasnt better than THomas, Palmeiro, McGwire, McGriff, and even if he was better, it wasnt enough to stand out over them. He has never won a ring, only has the 14th highest active ops, and just simply, did not accumulate enough stats to get in.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Thu Jul 13, 2006 11:23 am

MrSnider wrote:I think it's close. If he had 500 HR, he'd be a lock. 450's not shabby though, but if Fred McGriff is unlikely to get in with 497, I couldn't support Bagwell. Both were feared hitters in their day and without glancing at Fred's career stats, I imagine they're relatively similar. So I'll tie them together. If Fred's in/out, Jeff's in and vice versa.
To me McGriff just misses. Bagwell had a better BA, OBP, SLG% plus the ability to steal some bases. And I consider Bagwell the superior 1B defensively.
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Postby stevekahuda » Thu Jul 13, 2006 12:50 pm

I think he'll get in, but it will take a couple of ballots and a weak year. Very good career stats and he was a force for a very long time. I think the voters will look kindly on the fact that he had a career ending injury as opposed to just sucking it up as he got older (Kevin Brown, Mattingly, etc.)
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Postby tianyi86 » Thu Jul 13, 2006 2:43 pm

I just read how the HOF monitor is calculated, i think that system is flawed. Its not difficult to get over 100 according to that algorithm.
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Postby joshheines » Thu Jul 13, 2006 2:54 pm

Been a little busy to check in, but I think Biggio is a HOF (flexibility in playing C/2B/CF notoriously defensive position which are primarily weak offensively + his numbers get him in). Glavine is a first ballot HOF. Now, Bagwell.

I think you need to take a look at some of his season a little closer.

1994: In 110 games (strike shortened), 104 runs, 32 doubles, 2 triples, 39 HR, 116 RBI, 15 SB .368 BA/.451 OBP/ .750 SLG =1.201 OPS MVP/HOF season

1996: 111 runs, 48 doubles, 31 HR, 120 RBI, 21 SB, .315 AVG/.451 OBP/.570 SLG/1.021 OPS - HOF season

1997: 109 runs, 40 doubles, 43 HR, 135 RBI, 31 SB (1st base!), .286/.425/.592 - HOF season

1999: 143 runs, 35 doubles, 42 HR, 126 RBI, 30 SB, .304/.454/.591 - HOF season

2000: 152 runs, 37 doubles, 47 HR, 132 RBI, 9 SB, .310/.424/..615 - HOF season

Those are 5 no-doubt about HOF seasons. 2001 is a borderline HOF season with 125+ runs and RBIs along wiht 39 HR. A lower average and OBP prevent this from one of those all-time HOF seasons. In addition to the 5 all-time HOF type seasons, he's also got 5 more 30HR+/100+RBI/.400OBP/.550SLG type seasons.

Throw in a ROY/MVP and Gold Glove. Mix in three silver sluggers, three top five MVP finishes and six top ten finishes. Add in seven league top ten finishes in OPS. He led the league in times on base three times and finished second once. And the fact he played his whole career in the National League with one team.

The only 1B to ever win more silver sluggers is Todd Helton.

Bagwell is a HOF

Basically from 1994-2000 you could count on Bagwell for a .425+ OBP and near .600 SLG.
It's easy, fun, and 100% safe!
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