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Beckett will be better in the 2nd half...thoughts?

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Postby scr » Fri Jul 14, 2006 10:31 am

I sold high on Beckett at the break.

I gave: Beckett

I got: Lester, P. Byrd, H.Kenrick.
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Postby Matthias » Fri Jul 14, 2006 10:44 am

mcliffy2 wrote:Just to remphasize, his ERA at Fenway is 2.54. I don't think its so much the size of the park for Beckett as the atmosphere...it just seems like he thrives in positive pressure situations (world series, home crowd).


I don't think it's so much the size of the park as the size of the sample. Beckett may improve but the idea that he'll maintain a lower ERA at Fenway than on the road.... no.
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Postby Matthias » Fri Jul 14, 2006 10:46 am

Incidentally, I swapped Beckett for Peavy at the beginning of May. Even with Peavy struggling a little bit.... Hah!
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Postby beezer » Fri Jul 14, 2006 10:52 am

Beckett has never pitched more than 178 innings, which he did last year. Before that, the most he had pitched was 158. He is on pace to pitch 207 this year. Being the power pitcher he is and given his injury history, I would think there is a good chance that he would either get hurt again or wear down a little in September. Just a hunch, but, he will be in unchartered territory for him.
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Postby teddy ballgame » Fri Jul 14, 2006 11:07 am

scr wrote:I sold high on Beckett at the break.

I gave: Beckett

I got: Lester, P. Byrd, H.Kenrick.

I don't think that was a sell high. :-/
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Postby mcliffy2 » Fri Jul 14, 2006 1:03 pm

I don't think it's so much the size of the park as the size of the sample. Beckett may improve but the idea that he'll maintain a lower ERA at Fenway than on the road.... no.


Any interest in placing a cash wager on this? I mean he already has a 4 point lead at home (2.5 ERA v 6.5 on the road)...and on the road 2 HR/game v. .57 HR/game at Fenway. It might convene, but I predict a 3.25-3.5 ERA at Fenway and a 4.5ish road ERA from here out, ending up somewhere around 4 on the season.

I understand all the arguments made as to why he'll tank, etc, but none of them explain the numbers, and the numbers are right a surprising amount of the time.
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Postby Matthias » Fri Jul 14, 2006 3:13 pm

mcliffy2 wrote:
I don't think it's so much the size of the park as the size of the sample. Beckett may improve but the idea that he'll maintain a lower ERA at Fenway than on the road.... no.


Any interest in placing a cash wager on this? I mean he already has a 4 point lead at home (2.5 ERA v 6.5 on the road)...and on the road 2 HR/game v. .57 HR/game at Fenway. It might convene, but I predict a 3.25-3.5 ERA at Fenway and a 4.5ish road ERA from here out, ending up somewhere around 4 on the season.

I understand all the arguments made as to why he'll tank, etc, but none of them explain the numbers, and the numbers are right a surprising amount of the time.


sure, although if you look at his road starts, they're pretty good except for 3.

he got hammered in cleveland on april 27th (8ER in 3 2/3), and then in back-to-back starts on may 30th at toronto (7ER in 4 2/3) and a painful game that i was actually at on june 5th in new york (7ER in 1 1/3).

so he got killed by the indians, which happens to the best pitchers every once in a while, and then a bad week against two top offenses. i wouldn't use that as basis to extrapolate a very large trend. rather, i would trust the numbers that fenway is a park that produces a lot of offense and so over time, pitchers will have a higher era at it than they will at most other stadiums.
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Postby mcliffy2 » Fri Jul 14, 2006 3:24 pm

I'll take that bet because I agree Fenway is tougher on most pitchers, but I think there are other factors that are more significant for Beckett, and I think the numbers are showing that. Guess the season will tell....
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Postby scr » Fri Jul 14, 2006 4:15 pm

teddy ballgame wrote:
scr wrote:I sold high on Beckett at the break.

I gave: Beckett

I got: Lester, P. Byrd, H.Kenrick.

I don't think that was a sell high. :-/



Not a sell high?

Beckett's ERA is approaching 5. Lester's era is 3. Lester's K/9's are higher than Beckett's. Lester would have gotten the win last night if not for bad defense in the 7th. Kendrick is only hitting .400 in AAA, a keeper at one buck. Lester is a keeper at 5. Byrd was a throw in, in case Lester falls to pieces. Kendrick is going to be a stud. Beckett was a keeper at 10.

Sorry, TB, but I think I made out on this deal, maybe bigtime. Depends on if Kendrick lives up to his hype. BTW, have you watched Beckett pitch this year? I watched him against the Yanks a month ago-he couldn't throw his curve over, and got totally pounded.
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Postby tomdoyle3 » Fri Jul 14, 2006 8:25 pm

scr wrote:
teddy ballgame wrote:
scr wrote:I sold high on Beckett at the break.

I gave: Beckett

I got: Lester, P. Byrd, H.Kenrick.

I don't think that was a sell high. :-/



Not a sell high?

Beckett's ERA is approaching 5. Lester's era is 3. Lester's K/9's are higher than Beckett's. Lester would have gotten the win last night if not for bad defense in the 7th. Kendrick is only hitting .400 in AAA, a keeper at one buck. Lester is a keeper at 5. Byrd was a throw in, in case Lester falls to pieces. Kendrick is going to be a stud. Beckett was a keeper at 10.

Sorry, TB, but I think I made out on this deal, maybe bigtime. Depends on if Kendrick lives up to his hype. BTW, have you watched Beckett pitch this year? I watched him against the Yanks a month ago-he couldn't throw his curve over, and got totally pounded.


SCR, just to let you know, a guy with a 4.75 era is not a sell high.
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