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Beckett will be better in the 2nd half...thoughts?

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Beckett will be better in the 2nd half...thoughts?

Postby mcliffy2 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 1:22 am

I just put this analysis in another thread...but I thought it was worthy of its own because I think I found something, which as a Beckett owner is very promising for the 2nd half. Basically, the Red Sox have played a disproportionate amount of road games, and for whatever reason, Beckett is a WAY better home pitcher.

Beckett should be way better in the 2nd half because the Sox have 12 more home games than road games the 2nd half (1st half: 37 home, 49 road). I see him finishing with an ERA 3.8-4.0.

Here is the analysis:
This year, he has given up 22 HR on the road (and thus the 6.33 road ERA) and only 4 at Fenway (with a 2.54 ERA).

His ERA is higher than his career ERA (3.66) because he has had more road starts (11) than home starts (7). As he has more starts at Fenway his ERA will come down. Beckett loves pitching with adrenaline (see World Series again) and I think that is probably why he has a career home ERA of 3.07 as compared to a career road ERA of 4.29. Last year the difference was even more dramatic with a home ERA of 2.47 as compared to a road ERA of 4.31.

So what does all this mean, given the Red Sox have played only 37 home games as compared to 49 road games so far? It means BECKETT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE VALUABLE THE SECOND HALF. The numbers usually don't lie when they are that consistent over a player's career...
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Postby tomdoyle3 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 6:45 am

This would be valid if Fenway was a pitcher's park, but it's not. It would make a lot of sense that his numbers should improve as he pitches more at home. But unfortunately, Dolphins Stadium is a pitcher's park, Fenway is not, so while it makes sense for him to pitch well at home as a Marlin, it doesn't while he's with the Red Sox.

We will see. :-)
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Postby teddyballgamemvp » Wed Jul 12, 2006 8:52 am

You're right, for the wrong reasons. Beckett will have a better second half because he will have better command of his other pitches. He acknowledged a few weeks ago that he has to raise his game, so to speak, to pitch in the AL because the NL is basically a AAA league. He can't just win with his fastball. He has been hard at work to get his other pitches working for him-- the hardest part is admitting you have a problem, and Beckett has gotten to that point. The big thing to expect is that he won't have more homers given up than Elarton. He will win 20 games this year, you can bank that.
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Postby teddyballgamemvp » Wed Jul 12, 2006 8:54 am

tomdoyle3 wrote:This would be valid if Fenway was a pitcher's park, but it's not. It would make a lot of sense that his numbers should improve as he pitches more at home. But unfortunately, Dolphins Stadium is a pitcher's park, Fenway is not, so while it makes sense for him to pitch well at home as a Marlin, it doesn't while he's with the Red Sox.

We will see. :-)


Fenway is a hitter's park, but it's a doubles park. Beckett's problem is the really long ball. Those balls have to have serious lift to get into the stands. No line drive homers in Fenway.
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Postby teddy ballgame » Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:11 am

tomdoyle3 wrote:This would be valid if Fenway was a pitcher's park, but it's not. It would make a lot of sense that his numbers should improve as he pitches more at home. But unfortunately, Dolphins Stadium is a pitcher's park, Fenway is not, so while it makes sense for him to pitch well at home as a Marlin, it doesn't while he's with the Red Sox.

We will see. :-)

That doesn't mean all pitchers automatically pitch worse at Fenway. The atmosphere is enough for some people to pitch that much better, which obviously it does fo Beckett. Fenway being a hitters park does not mean Beckett has to do worse there, and it's kind of ridiculous for someone to assume so. It's a hitters park because of averages of runs scored in games, not because every game is a slugfest. Not to mention starts by the 4 and 5 guys are included in any stats that make a park hitters or pitchers. Those starts obviously effect the numbers, so with someone as good as Beckett he should be able to overcome that.

My opinion about Beckett in the 2nd half? If he starts out good, then trade him before he gets hurt.

Also, just because he's due to pitch more games at home, doesn't mean it will happen. The Red Sox as a team have more games left at home, but with the way the schedule works he could still wind up pitching on the road a lot.
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Postby mcliffy2 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:32 am

Just to remphasize, his ERA at Fenway is 2.54. I don't think its so much the size of the park for Beckett as the atmosphere...it just seems like he thrives in positive pressure situations (world series, home crowd).
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Postby mm92280 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:19 pm

I've got Beckett and he really can't help but improve. There's no way a guy that talented is going to keep giving up homers at the unbelievable rate that he is. He's just leaving his fastball over the plate way too much so far this year. I've heard some suggest that he's using his fastball more to help him avoid blister issues. If that is true, hopefully he can find some kind of happy medium that will allow him to mix in his other pitches without developing blisters.
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Postby stevekahuda » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:49 pm

Beckett will continue to stink. I've seen three of his starts where he got rocked, and he got rocked because all he throws are fastballs. I've heard that he's going to change, but I don't buy it. He think he's a power pitcher and he's going to power through it. That and the fastball is really his best pitch. Unfortunately, he doesn't locate well enough to succeed on a consistent basis. Outlook - :-t
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Postby crimson knuckles » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:39 pm

I think Beckett peaked during the Marlins world series season.....some pitchers depend on youthful energy that slowly fades in the mid-late twenties.....energy that is crucial for an explosive fastball
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Postby RynMan » Thu Jul 13, 2006 10:21 pm

I don't think that alone is enough to say he will be better this half. He is doing exactly what I would expect of him, coming from an NL and pitcher friendly park, to the heaviest hitting division in baseball. Mid 4's ERA with a bunch of wins. I see no valid reason to expect anything better.
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