Any thoughts on Mark Mulder

[marinerfan11]

Debating on whether to dump the guy or hold on. Have Maroth and Harden on DL all season hoping they come back. Mulder has had shoulder inflamation, has that caused his inconsitant performance this year or is the league catching up to him?

[bwagner112]

It really depends on your league...he was dropped in mine over a month ago...anyone good available?

[mak1277]

I'd say if you're in a mixed league with less than 14 teams, there's no way Mulder's a good option and there has to be someone better out there.

[Simply Dangerous]

I've hated Mulder for a long time. Very overrated in my opinion. I have a big question mark for Harden too. Seems like the next Prior/Wood/Sheets. Great potential, always injured.

[The Loveable Losers]

Yeah, 12 team redraft I wouldn't touch him. 14 team is even questionable. He's on a downward trend over the last few years and you have an injury comeback to worry about as well.

[mrbill]

K/BB ratio keeps slipping. now the injury problems. There's not a lot going for him now except that he pitches for a winning team.

I had to decide whether to keep him or Harang as my 10th in my league, and I went against a couple recommendations and kept Harang. Don't regret that decision.

[The Loveable Losers]

I still can't believe I was able to deal him for Chase Utley in a keeper league in the pre-season this year.

[ivanhack]

Debating on whether to dump the guy or hold on. Have Maroth and Harden on DL all season hoping they come back. Mulder has had shoulder inflamation, has that caused his inconsitant performance this year or is the league catching up to him?

I don't think you should hold on to Mulder OR Maroth. There's gotta be better options than either of those pitchers.

[Sunspot]

Nobody is considering him a buy low? He was once good, and it wasn't that long ago either and you know the Cards score runs. Maybe this injury is a legit reason for his bad pitching this year? I don't think his value can get much lower at this point. Would you rather have Chan Ho?

[The Loveable Losers]

While Mulder has been regressing let's give him the benefit of the doubt and assume a return to his 2005 form. Let's add to that however some normalization and removal of luck.

2005 Component Stats:
4.9 k/9, 3.1 bb/9, 0.84 hr/9, 60.5% gb%, 15.3% park adjusted hr/f%

Before I project an era/whip from those I'd like to mention that while the 15.3% park adjusted hr/f% is a bit higher than the 11-12% we would expect I think it's a symptom of the fact that he's very hittable at this point. He's not fooling batters at all which means that despite his ground ball tendancies he still gives up some home runs (though not nearly the number he would give up if he wasn't so good at inducing ground balls).

Projected ERA/Whip:
4.16 era, 1.413 whip (actual was 3.64 with a 1.38 whip)

Mulder's projected era last year would play in most fantasy leagues but isn't great. The whip on the other hand (both the projected AND actual) was a disaster. The k/9 really hurts in limited ip roto leagues or leagues that use k/9 as a stat. The ONLY thing he brought to the table was wins. With the Cardinals offense not quite the wrecking ball it's been in the past and given that a return even to last year's form is not guaranteed (he has been sliding for a few years now) I just don't see Mulder being worth holding in many formats at all. You might actually be doing yourself a favor by cutting him now even if he's only sitting in your DL slot. That way you won't be tempted to drop someone to activate him when the time comes.